2008 -2009 surf/weather forecast

[puurri]

Someone says this'll be a wet and humid summer with more chance of good surf as a result through next year. (Traditional knowledge)
Any takers??

[steve shearer]

I'm glad I didn't respond to this initially because I'd come off like a prize goose now. But in Nov, with Coral Sea SST's showing almost record positive anomalies and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) swinging negative (into a cool phase), which is correlated with more active "Nina" type base states for the Pacific basin, I would have just about bet the sheep station on an active cyclone season.
Since then, we've had an MJO signal all over the shop like a drunken sailor, very strong monsoonal trough with record rainfall over tropical QLD, and two very pissant cyclones in the Coral Sea, one of which gave us a one day swell.
What the hell is going on?
The last Nina summers 99-01 when the PDO went to a cool phase, many people including the esteemed Mr Carroll, trumpeted the return of the very active storm years of the 60's and 70's.
And it's true 2001 featured Cyclone Sose (12ft+ and clean) and the hallowed July east swell (arguably the best east coast swell ever). Since then the PDO switched phases again and a quasi-permanent Nino base state was established.
Cyclone seasons since then have been unrelentingly dissapointing, with the notable exception of Wati, with it's perfect track (march 06).
Does anyone here have any credible reasons why the Coral Sea no longer seems capable of cyclogenesis with any kind of frequency in the summer months.
And yes, I know March is historically the most active month, in a way I'm putting out this public taunt to my beloved Coral Sea, in a vain hope that by some sort of chaos theory, it might instigate some sort of disturbance.

[oldman]

Yeah, way over my head Steve.

Here is something interesting. Recent research shows that the ocean temperature over the Indian Ocean is a big factor in our weather, possibly moreso than the El Nino/La Nina effect.

Makes a lot of sense seeing as our weather comes from the west.

Early stages of research, and I have no idea whether this will impact cyclogenesis in the Timor Sea, but it seems funny that science has spent so much looking at EN/LN and yet the entire Indian Ocean is comparatively neglected.

Read on:

http://www.unsw.edu.au/news/pad/article ... stery.html

[steve shearer]

Yeah, no doubt the IOD is the major contributor for SE Aus rainfall, particularly NW cloudbands in Winter.
Don't think it explains the lack of cyclogenesis in the Coral Sea though.

[Donweather]

I know it's been a quiet old season in the Coral Sea thus far, but come on guys it's still only early March....still plenty of time to punch out a few in the next month or so.

[steve shearer]

A few? as in more than 2.
You'd be a brave man to call more than 3 or more cyclones this season Don.
How was the Solomons?

[Donweather]

A few? as in more than 2.

A few as in 2....me thinks we may well see one last hoorah very late in the season (April'ish).

How was the Solomons?

Solomons was good, but unfortunately a little hit and miss. We were very spoilt in our first week, arriving to 4-5ft on the first day, 5ft+ on the second day, dropping to 3-4ft+ and then back to 2-3ft by our first weekend.

Unfortunately the 2nd week wasn't so good with only an inconsistent 2ft/2ft+, and so with even smaller conditions on the cards for the last few days of our trip, we pulled the pin and came home early. I'm still sorting through the pics, but I'll post one or two up later. Needless to say, no one wanted to shoot instead of surf for the first 3 days so I've only got pics from the leftover 3ft swell.

[Donweather]

As I said above, these pics are from the smaller day, but still fun nonetheless and only myself and my 3 mates to enjoy it with!!!

[Donweather]

A couple more.....

[Donweather]

A few? as in more than 2.
You'd be a brave man to call more than 3 or more cyclones this season Don.

Whilst I'm not counting my chickens just yet, it's certainly looking like Hamish may well be born in a few days!!!

[Donweather]

And could this be #2?

OK, so it's a mile out with respect to the model runs, but with me having a week's holiday at the Sunny Coast commencing Sunday 15 March, once can only hope and pray!!!

[steve shearer]

Hamish hear our prayer.
SSE not SSW.
Looks like my challenge to the CS is paying off...the old girl is sensitive to insults.

[Donweather]

Whilst a SSE track would be good, I still don't rate very highly low pressure systems so close to the coast.........too much wild and wooly destruction on the southern flank and then she's all over once the better winds on the W/NW flank arrive.

What's your thoughts on the long range model developments in the far eastern CS/Tropical South Pacific Steve?

[puurri]

Now moving slowly (24kph) southeast, cat 5, low pressure at 920 millibars ffs(frock hectorpascals). It's nasty!

And now for a Hastings St spa bath!

Another by early April anyone??

[Donweather]

I reckon we may well just see Coral Sea cyclone #2 sometime in the week commencing Monday 22 March......thoughts Steve?

[Trev]

I reckon we may well just see Coral Sea cyclone #2 sometime in the week commencing Monday 22 March......thoughts Steve?

22nd March is a Sunday.

[steve shearer]

EC has been on the money for progging the formation and then loses the plot when it comes to the track......so yeah.....looks like by the end of this week if recent form is any guide.
I believe it will be TC Ilsa......hmmmm...kind of exotic.
Water down here is like a warm bath.....



and to be pedantic its actually CS cyclone number 4.....Ellie, Innis , Hamish were the first 3.

[steve shearer]

Jasper now.....gay name but oh well.
The track favoured by EC and BOM is fukn droolworthy.
Not one post on this hey......fcuk this could be another Wati or Justin.