Could it be the first cyclone swell of the season
swell
http://facs.scripps.edu/surf/images/ausanim.gif
period
http://facs.scripps.edu/surf/images/auspanim.gif
Dust off the rhino chasers for justin
ooo errr
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One Mile Point
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barstardos
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Normally I am a swell optimist but I not confident at all about TC Wati producing swell for Sydney at this stage.
The facs models are based on GFS computer model. In the case of predicting cyclone tracks, models are not much better than a guess. The Bureau dont suggest that TC Wati is heading SE toward NZ like the GFS Model. It is still possible that Wati will cross the coast and cause some havoc.
I am not confident ....but I will still have a word to my ding repairer and make sure the busted fin in my 7'0" is re-set before early next week!!
In the same spirit if preparing - just in case - if you live in SE QLD maybe stock up on a few essential items (like food and fuel, not just big wave surfboards).
The facs models are based on GFS computer model. In the case of predicting cyclone tracks, models are not much better than a guess. The Bureau dont suggest that TC Wati is heading SE toward NZ like the GFS Model. It is still possible that Wati will cross the coast and cause some havoc.
I am not confident ....but I will still have a word to my ding repairer and make sure the busted fin in my 7'0" is re-set before early next week!!
In the same spirit if preparing - just in case - if you live in SE QLD maybe stock up on a few essential items (like food and fuel, not just big wave surfboards).
I agree with you born out of wedlocos, in that modelling cyclone tracks is akin to picking lotto numbers. But reports from weather boffins have gone from 'conflicting models' to a more generalised southward southeast track.
Latest from Weatherzone;
Cyclone Wati drifts down the QLD coast
Matt Pearce, Thu 16:00 EDT
Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati, category 3, started moving slowly southeast during Thursday, a trend it is likely to continue for the next few days. The cyclone is close enough to the QLD coast to be causing strong to gale force winds, large seas and showers along the coast, but not close enough to prompt cyclone warnings to be issued. As the cyclone continues drifting southeast down the coast, the pressure gradient between it and a high in the southern Tasman will strengthen along the south QLD coast. This will cause gales, large seas and showers to increase. Depending on the exact track of the cyclone, by the weekend, these conditions could become quite severe in the Southeast Coast of QLD. As the cyclone will remain offshore, rainfalls will generally not exceed 20mm.
It'd be great for all and sundry if Wati just turned into a tropical depression of the coast and pumped swell, instead of crossing land and reaping havoc.
Sydney's share could be minimal, but I'll do a johnno and let you know how good it gets up here (afterwards
). You mob have got a cross city tunnel and reclaimed NN, what more do ya want?
Lot of surfers with fingers, and other bits crossed atm. Cough, cough, its getting worse!
Latest from Weatherzone;
Cyclone Wati drifts down the QLD coast
Matt Pearce, Thu 16:00 EDT
Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati, category 3, started moving slowly southeast during Thursday, a trend it is likely to continue for the next few days. The cyclone is close enough to the QLD coast to be causing strong to gale force winds, large seas and showers along the coast, but not close enough to prompt cyclone warnings to be issued. As the cyclone continues drifting southeast down the coast, the pressure gradient between it and a high in the southern Tasman will strengthen along the south QLD coast. This will cause gales, large seas and showers to increase. Depending on the exact track of the cyclone, by the weekend, these conditions could become quite severe in the Southeast Coast of QLD. As the cyclone will remain offshore, rainfalls will generally not exceed 20mm.
It'd be great for all and sundry if Wati just turned into a tropical depression of the coast and pumped swell, instead of crossing land and reaping havoc.
Sydney's share could be minimal, but I'll do a johnno and let you know how good it gets up here (afterwards
). You mob have got a cross city tunnel and reclaimed NN, what more do ya want?Lot of surfers with fingers, and other bits crossed atm. Cough, cough, its getting worse!
Re: ooo errr
not sure what you're looking at but i see it peaking in around 72 hours (tuesday lunch) at roughly 12 ft seas at 12-14 seconds.dinosaur wrote:by my untrained eye it looks like syd's gonna get 6ft at 9 secs from the east. probably with ene/ese winds. = crapolamad wrote:
Could it be the first cyclone swell of the season
swell
http://facs.scripps.edu/surf/images/ausanim.gif
period
http://facs.scripps.edu/surf/images/auspanim.gif
Dust off the rhino chasers for justin
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foamballpilotqueen
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