Double your fun, ECL and a Cyclone!

[barstardos]

The models are looking extremely interesting for 13 Feb onwards.
Looks like a tropical depression will spin up in to a cyclone somewhere south of Fiji.
Around the same time a trough moving in to the lower tasman should bomb in to an East Coast Low off the far South Coast.
Its too far off to know exactly what happens after that but the chances are there will be plenty of swell for the whole week and a big high moving in after the ECL should mean light winds for NSW.
After the dribble of early summer, i just love it when we get to February and the swell just starts coming in!!

[thermalben]

Bastardos, prob worth mentioning that, IMO, EC's been a little off-kilter in recent weeks. Although I agree re: possible cyclone near Fiji, I reckon an ECL 'bomb' in the Tasman is quite optimistic at this stage. On the whole though, it's certainly looking good for swell prospects for the East Coast for the next couple of weeks.

[Beets]

With the cyclone, is that likely to provide swell for more than a week, or is there the probability that there will be consistent swell for QLD for the next few weeks as a result of the monsoon conditions?
Just trying to plan a run up the coast and wondering what swell prospects for the week starting 20th Feb are like...

[barstardos]

hey Ben, I like the chances for an ECL to form, the trough that is extending down from the NW over the weekend looks ok for me to imagine an ECL foorming. It may not 'bomb' but we should get something from it. GFS likes it too
Beets - youre an optimist if you expect a 14 day surf forecast. But lets just say heading up the coast in late February is a very good idea!

[marty]

ah ofcourse i'm travelling overseas departing Feb' 13th.
well at least its a surf trip

[Bear]

What sizes we talking boys? i suck at weather predicting on a long range scale!

[Cactus2099]

Thanks all.... As luck would have it I'm leaving for a two week holiday on the Goldy and NSW north coast on the 12th............... Niiiice

[barstardos]

Todays run of the models agree with Ben. The ECL doesnt look like its going to happen but the cyclone looks OK

[barstardos]

It gets worse!
The models today show the cyclone well to the SE of Fiji - almost useless for swell production for us.
We will be lucky to get some SE local swell mid week.
I give up!! It looks good and then just fades away.
Just as well I am going to the Outer Atolls in the Maldives in Feb-March, hopefully there will be some swell there!

[One Mile Point]

sigh

[chris_010]

Love the G up.

[One Mile Point]

Again