Mentawai quiver.

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channels
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Re: Mentawai quiver.

Post by channels » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:35 pm

steve shearer wrote:
Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:05 pm
it's a couple of germans making shitt up, I'm sure of it.
It's an elaborate troll by Iggs.

Like convincing everyone he moved to Lakemba.

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Re: Mentawai quiver.

Post by Cranked » Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:07 pm

steve shearer wrote:
Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:55 pm
Cranked, according to your blokes at surf-forecast the surf will be about 10 times bigger on Wed in Bali compared to the Mentawaiis.

They have to be fcuking with people, right?
Like all the big surf forecasts its automated.
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Re: Mentawai quiver.

Post by steve shearer » Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:16 pm

so it can't be right, or even close to right then for the Mentawaiis?
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

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Re: Mentawai quiver.

Post by Cranked » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:08 pm

Magic Seaweed is saying roughly the same and so is Storm Surf. The Surf Forcast kJs are roughly 400 and 4000. The others are in feet so who knows.

The animated model shows the how and why:
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display ... pac_height
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Re: Mentawai quiver.

Post by steve shearer » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:31 pm

Surf-forecast on Wed says Iceland, which looks like one of the most exposed reefs in the Mentawaiis is less than 400kj all day.
Ulus peaks at just under 4000kj on the same day.

That surely can't be right.


Maybe it is?

Does Bali get that much more swell than the Ments?
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

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Re: Mentawai quiver.

Post by Cranked » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:42 pm

I too was under the impression that the Ments got more swell (and had much lighter winds) than Bali
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Re: Mentawai quiver.

Post by Cranked » Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:01 pm

The Iceland SurfForecast stats for Sept show 4 to 6.5' 63% of time and for Uluwatu its 6.5 to 10' 63% of the time.

Ulus is offshore 99%, Iceland 60%
http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Uluwatu
http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Icelands
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Re: Mentawai quiver.

Post by bomboraa » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:30 pm

Taking some poppers? Ever been up one of the rivers to meet the animist locals? Worth it.

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Re: Mentawai quiver.

Post by Beanpole » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:32 pm

Doesn't the swell intensity rely on the direction?

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Re: Mentawai quiver.

Post by steve shearer » Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:27 am

Not taking any fishing gear Bombie,got zero interest in getting my arms stretched by GT's. there'll be some trolling gear onboard.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

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Re: Mentawai quiver.

Post by steve shearer » Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:17 am

Gunna be really interesting to see how the various forecast sites deal with it.

according to Surf-forecast , just about every break in the Ments next Wed will be 300-500kj.........roughy head high or under? pretty weak anyhow.

Ulus according to MSW will be 8ft.

My call is breaks with exposure to SSW angled swell should be 3-5ft with some 6footers. Roughly equivalent to the MSW call.

I found MSW pretty useful for Cloudbreak when I was there.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

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Re: Mentawai quiver.

Post by Cranked » Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:58 am

“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say ”— Marshall McLuhan

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Re: Mentawai quiver.

Post by steve shearer » Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:05 am

Correct animation?

Thats just a sea height prog chart based on GFS data.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

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Re: Mentawai quiver.

Post by Cranked » Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:15 am

Only "correct" because above I gave a link to the Pacific instead of the Indian ocean animations.
steve shearer wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:05 am
Thats just a sea height prog chart based on GFS data.
I know, but it gives a clear dynamic visual image of the typical swell movement paths and decay: that is primarily to the E, less to the ENE (Perth to Qhoba), even less to the NE (Bali) and very little to the NNE (Ments).

As an aside I believe the primary factor in swell forecasting is the same as for weather forecasting, that is computing power. I think the relationship is something like if you double the processing power you can add 10% to the forecast accuracy.
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say ”— Marshall McLuhan

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Re: Mentawai quiver.

Post by steve shearer » Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:10 am

what do I need to pay to get into Indo Cranked?
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

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Re: Mentawai quiver.

Post by Yuke Hunt » Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:15 am

steve shearer wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:10 am
what do I need to pay to get into Indo Cranked?
Just your dignity ?
The moving finger writes and having writ moves on ... now all thy piety nor wit shall lure it back to cancel even half a line ... nor all thy tears wash out a single word of it.

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Re: Mentawai quiver.

Post by Cranked » Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:59 am

steve shearer wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:10 am
what do I need to pay to get into Indo Cranked?
They issue a 30 day visa on arrival for free so there's nothing to pay.
If you have more than 3 boards they might try to argue you are importing them to sell.
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say ”— Marshall McLuhan

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Re: Mentawai quiver.

Post by Cranked » Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:01 pm

Make sure you have a clean page in your passport, if not you'll be refused entry. Offering lots of cash may help, sometimes not.
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say ”— Marshall McLuhan

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