winter fourteen

[crabmeat thompson]

Don, thoughts on this upcoming scenario?

seabreeze says, relax sparky.

[steve shearer]

just for shits and giggles what does Seabreeze say?

fifty foot at Noosa?

[Donweather]

Steve, as I posted back on SN a few days ago..............

GFS's 12z run this morning has backed away from the trough/E'ly dip scenario somewhat. Access G (to a lesser extent) and EC are trending to continue to push it out (timewise) with each model run, which is never a good sign.

Sure we've got swell from either scenario but without the trough/low forming and moving south of us, local winds will be rather crappy also.

And Seabreeze doesn't go out that far (I presume you're talking about mid-late next week). And given that seabreeze uses GFS, it won't be forecasting as big as ACCESS G and EC are currently progging.

[steve shearer]

I mean more in terms of the general pattern.

[Donweather]

Impressive for late winter/early Spring that's for sure and certainly not very Nino like (if it comes off with the trough/easterly dip/low).

[steve shearer]

can u recall any recent analogue?

[Donweather]

No but my memories shit when it comes to remembering things like that.

[steve shearer]

I think this is shaping up to be something the likes of which may never have been seen before at this time of year.

It'll have diabolical consequences but let the chips fall where they will.

[black duck]

I think this is shaping up to be something the likes of which may never have been seen before at this time of year.

It'll have diabolical consequences but let the chips fall where they will.

Bit cryptic SS. Can you unpack a bit?

[steve shearer]

massive high drifting into the Tasman at Tasmanian latitudes......setting up a deep mean easterly moisture laden flow from deep in the South Pac.

all models progging some kind of dip/trough to form in the Coral Sea, possibly/probably forming a surface low off the SEQLD/NENSW coast before drifting south or south-west.

Gales and possible floods on the southern flank. Lots of wind, rain and swell.

Unprecedented for August in my books.

Anyone still want to throw their hat in the ring for an early dry hot spring?

So far we've had more rainfall this August than we had in Feb, and prob the whole of Spring/summer last year. Looks like at least another 100mm on the way. Maybe twice or triple that.

[Donweather]

Diaboloical consequences? As in floods on her southern flank?

[steve shearer]

thats one possibility....more diabolical for us; total bank buster if the gales are adjacent to us.

there will be moderate/major flooding here if we got another 100-200 mm on top of the rain we've already had.

[Donweather]

Ahhhh yes a bank buster!!! That's sure to happen now I'm back being able to surf again.

[swvic]

Yeah, you're fcuked. Been more than one high come past here with centres at lats way lower than we usually get this time of year. Have had some SE winds already. Just on the end of several days of it in a row now. This DOES NOT happen in August

[black duck]

Ahhhh yes a bank buster!!! That's sure to happen now I'm back being able to surf again.

You're not really a glass half full kind of guy, are you Don.

[Donweather]

Ahhhh yes a bank buster!!! That's sure to happen now I'm back being able to surf again.

You're not really a glass half full kind of guy, are you Don.

Ha ha......nah I'm not BD.

So is this a half glass full or half glass empty view?

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

Choose "Total Rainfall" and then "8 day period" and then check out the forecast rainfall totals for SE Qld/Nth NSW!!!!

[Donweather]

And Steve, whilst this next system is unusual for August, it's certainly not unprecedented.

August 1949 saw big floods - http://www.mhl.nsw.gov.au/www/NatureofF ... yShire.pdf

"In 1949, an average of 300mm fell over the catchment over a four-day period, with 600mm being recorded at the Kookaburra Sawmill 50 kilometres west of Kempsey."

"The incidence of flooding in the winter months is lower but winter floods have tended to be the most severe."

210mm fell in a 24hr period on August 27th 1949

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/station.j ... 17&list=rb

Interesting to note that August 1949 was the start of a long La Nina.

http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2010/11 ... na-events/

[steve shearer]

Anyone still game to fly the dry spring flag up the flagpole?

Ok 1949....I can recall several severe July flood events but I've never seen a late August one