Just general surfing stuff

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Beanpole
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Beanpole » Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:30 am

offshore1 wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:25 am
Rodney Sumpter, greatest surfer of all time.
Discuss.
Definitely not.
Discussion over.

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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Yuke Hunt » Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:50 am

Thud wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:37 am
Gordon Sumner, greatest singer of all time
Mex, his brother is a good fella.

Don't discuss.
The moving finger writes and having writ moves on ... now all thy piety nor wit shall lure it back to cancel even half a line ... nor all thy tears wash out a single word of it.

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steve shearer
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by steve shearer » Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:08 am

godsavethequeen wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 9:03 pm
You’re either trolling me - in which case, well played, hook line and sinker etc etc - or you’re wilfully not hearing my explanation of their forecasts. ‘Scientifically’ would be you carefully documenting the swell as recorded by the Byron buoy and comparing it to the swell forecast for Lennox head and noting the actual wave height at Ballina compared to the forecast. If they differ wildly then I will be happy to concede that you are right. What ‘scientifically’ isn’t is unverified assertions about unpublished research based on false assumptions, backed up by a single (probably apocryphal) anecdote

<:

Do you even know where the Byron Buoy is Godsave and what it measures?

Once more, their report is for Lennox Head, not Byron Buoy.
They are (supposedly) forecasting breaking waves in feet. Not buoy readings.

This is for both Ballina and Lennox Head.


Update: Tomorrow forecast for Lennox is 6.5ft dropping to 5.5ft.
Forecast for Ballina: 3.4ft.

I don't think you know enough Godsave to even realise how ridiculous this is.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

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foamy
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by foamy » Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:22 am

Obviously, when they say Ballina, they are not talking the Wall, but a few hundred yards away where nobody much surfs anyway.

Beanpole
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Beanpole » Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:31 am

Maybe they are talking about inside the River. Steve going all local on GST just because he is telling him how big the surf is in front of where he lives from the other side of the world.

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Cranked
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Cranked » Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:39 am

Steve, do you know what data a wave buoy records and how that data is interpreted/processed/manipulated before being released? Serious question.
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say ”— Marshall McLuhan

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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Drailed » Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:23 am

Nick Carroll wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:25 pm
Next he’ll be leaping to the defence of Pottz.

:lol:
Trev wrote:I have always had a lot of time for Dick
smnmntll wrote:Got one in the mouth once, that was pretty memorable

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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by steve shearer » Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:53 am

Cranked wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:39 am
Steve, do you know what data a wave buoy records and how that data is interpreted/processed/manipulated before being released? Serious question.

Yes I do.

But more importantly I know what are the confounding/contaminating influences on the buoy data.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

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Cranked
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Cranked » Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:58 am

I've thinking that to automatically adjust open ocean swell data to wave heights for a given beach/reef you would need to record a series of observations of the actual spot wave heights for that swell height, period and direction.

From those observations we could arrive at adjustment factor to convert an open ocean swell data to a particular spot's wave height for a given swell direction. As a single factor I think it would work more readily with wave energy and could also be automatically scaled to accommodate swell direction.
And thats not even taking into account the peculiarities of a particular buoy location

Do you know if any automated surf forecaster does this? It seems most unlikely.
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say ”— Marshall McLuhan

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foamy
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by foamy » Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:05 am

Good forecasting is built on a lot of hindcasting. The magic seaweed crew probably don't get much of that so far from their home base.
:idea: Some surf cams would be a big help :idea:

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steve shearer
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by steve shearer » Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:14 am

Cranked wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:58 am


Do you know if any automated surf forecaster does this? It seems most unlikely.
No, they don;'t and this is a major problem for their accuracy.

Byron Buoy, for eg is actually located due east of Ballina Bar on the 65m depth contour (about 5km off the coast).

It is extremely susceptible to wind and swell direction contamination.

If you don't understand those factors then using it as a surf height proxy for the adjacent coastline is almost useless.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

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foamy
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by foamy » Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:31 am

Michael February employs a different way of duckdiving.

https://mobile.twitter.com/wsl/status/1 ... gr%5Etweet

p.s. I don't like the look of that reef.

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Cranked
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Cranked » Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:12 am

There is a big problem forecasting for Indo as there are no local buoys that I know of
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say ”— Marshall McLuhan

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The Mighty Sunbird
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by The Mighty Sunbird » Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:34 am

Likewise Maldives
The nearest bouy is 800 km away or something
Erase.

Nick Carroll
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Nick Carroll » Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:50 am

steve shearer wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:53 am
Cranked wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:39 am
Steve, do you know what data a wave buoy records and how that data is interpreted/processed/manipulated before being released? Serious question.

Yes I do.

But more importantly I know what are the confounding/contaminating influences on the buoy data.
Ha ha in this case I think Magic Seaweed invents virtual buoys, kinda like Buoyweather

For those who aren’t across this concept, a virtual buoy is a point on the sea surface where BW or MS decide to imagine a buoy is present. They then extrapolate off GFS or ECMRW data to create imaginary readings for this imaginary buoy.

What cranky is talking about, drawing off real time buoy readings to predict shoreline conditions at a range of spots, dead set that can take a fcuken lifetime of observation and even then you can be off.

Australia’s east coast is a cnut of a coast to try to forecast in the first place, 10 degrees of wind angle difference near Tasmania can change a 2’ day into a 10’ day at half the spots sth of Byron, and you never know how that angle will go till it does. Certainly some dumb arse virtual buoy 10ks offshore sucking off GFS five days in advance is about as much use as a hand-plane.

Nick Carroll
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Nick Carroll » Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:58 am

Oh btw trev you might see another pulse from the east around Weds, from a similar wind band associated with a cutoff low NE of NZ. It won’t be much because that low is regressing east on a Sacred Mission to destroy the Teahupoo CT, but it’ll be something.

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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by steve shearer » Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:43 pm

Its the same low thats been lollygagging around the South Pac
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steve shearer
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by steve shearer » Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:48 pm

Re virtual buoys MHL has a new hybrid product mixing wave forecasting and buoy data to produce inshore and near shore wave heights.
Havent had a chance to test it yet.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

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