Fiji Pro

[crabmeat thompson]

Any expectations? Who's everyone got to win?

Weather models look like the first week will come and go without a heat being run, but then looking a little tasty thereafter. Well as tasty as a 2-week forecast can look, that is.

[Cpt.Caveman]

I say small cloudbreak with Medina doing 5 airs per wave for the win

[crabmeat thompson]

Beware the hobgoods if it gets decent!

[Nick Carroll]

what are you TALKING about Braithy.

the back end of a swell will still be skating through there on Monday. Then there's gonna be a couple of nice slugs in a row mid to late next week off the low passing Tasmania on Sunday/Monday.

might be some cloud around but whatever.

on the back end, a long range but very clean sw from the massive fetch forming under SA later next week.

Bit of a goofy's event methinks.

[steve shearer]

Yep.

Sunday will have some weird but super powerful short range stuff happening from a tropical low which forms in the SPCZ between Vanuatu and Fiji and scoots away to the SE, aiming up briefly at Fiji.

That'll be a weird SE in direction, not the more favourable SW to SSW.

Then the mid week pulses Carroll flagged which come with the Tasman sea positioning of the long wave trough over the weekend. Mystery bag over how much swell gets generated from that but it will be substantial. Models keep toying with a miniature set-up of last year: deep southern ocean groundswell and Tasman sea ECL. The ECL idea seems to have gone off the boil but the essential ingredients are there.

Following that long wave trough quickly repositions SE of NZ which looks to send Tahiti another bombardment with a blocking high in the Tasman sea Fijian swell window.

Massive swell producing system right now with storm force winds over the Chathams embedded in a thousand plus mile fetch aimed straight at Tahiti.

I think they'll have Fiji done and dusted by next weekend.

[steve shearer]

on the back end, a long range but very clean sw from the massive fetch forming under SA later next week.

Too early to say with certainty but I think that fetch will be blocked and steered more towards southern Australia by the blocking high.

[aaronn]

everyones a friggin swell forecaster
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
then again, seeing as how ben and craig rarely have any idea [wasted their years of study !]
it's best we do it ourselves

[crabmeat thompson]

what are you TALKING about Braithy.

the back end of a swell will still be skating through there on Monday. Then there's gonna be a couple of nice slugs in a row mid to late next week off the low passing Tasmania on Sunday/Monday.

might be some cloud around but whatever.

on the back end, a long range but very clean sw from the massive fetch forming under SA later next week.

Bit of a goofy's event methinks.

Everyone already at the island says this current swell is too windy and only going to get windier?

The ones mid to late next week are the ones I was talking about, especially the one under tassie, and the possibility of it turning the corner and heading up the tasman like Steve said, a miniature version of last year's scenario.

The purple blob headed to Tahiti is no joke. Unbelievable those guys, and its not even winter yet.

[aaronn]

listen daryl b raithwaite
pictures
or shut it

[crabmeat thompson]

listen daryl b raithwaite
pictures
or shut it

Stand down, Aaron. Stand the fcuk the down.

Our ship is sinking and we're all going to die.

[crabmeat thompson]

[Donweather]

Massive swell producing system right now with storm force winds over the Chathams embedded in a thousand plus mile fetch aimed straight at Tahiti.

Holy feck me. How's the longevity this storm is forecast to produce over 50 ft seas!!!!! The whole of South and North America's west coast is gonna be going bananas!!!!

Swell periods very rarely seen will be hitting their shores mid next week (24-27 sec+)!!!!

[steve shearer]

Latest runs put the ECL back on the table, reduce the strength of the cold fronts sweeping the lower/mid Tasman, and then aim up the ECL more at the Aus East coast (although still with that horrible wind slingshot from south to north which will scour our banks again- how long Lord, how Long?).

Tradewind flows across Fiji should ease dramatically once the current trough of low pressure and high combo breaks down Sat/Sun. Might even go light and variable Sun/Mon before weak trades next week.

Goofy event? Is there really any advantage to a goofy at a left these days? Especially one overhead and barrelling.
I mean Cloudbreak is a whole lot different to say 2-3ft JBay......where it really does look like a bitch on your backhand.

[el rancho]

slater win, especially if it's weird/sketchy/windy.
a hobgood in a semi.
seabass in another semi.
probably-maybe john john in semi or final. (is he surfing?)

[Nick Carroll]

on the back end, a long range but very clean sw from the massive fetch forming under SA later next week.

Too early to say with certainty but I think that fetch will be blocked and steered more towards southern Australia by the blocking high.

yeahbut ... bells etc will be going off, however it's amazing how much swell comes around from the 50s/60s latitudes under the bight and goes to Fiji.

they follow the circle, it's easy for the eye to be tricked by a flat map on that score.

sth swells get to CA from down there.

I'm sure you're all over that theory though.

braithy -- a note on Tahiti etc -- it's like Indo, notoriously better and more consistent in late autumn than in the depths of the Southern Hemi winter. And amazingly, you will often go to Chopes in Nov/Dec and find it pumping.

[steve shearer]

yeah, yeah circle paths. Love all that. In fact there's some tricky little period/refraction combos around here from long range sources that follow circle path theories and are yet to make the mainstream forecast pages.

They can come from Heard Island but I think the Tasman sea swell window seems to suffer more attenuation from those long range swells compared to, say, the wide open Pacific window you referenced (with special mention to Puerto Escondido there...that seems to defy all swell decay tables).

I think something has to aim up not to much west of 140E to really fire up that Tasman window.

[Nick Carroll]

btw shearer if you want to see where our winter has gone, look no further than that hell bomb cutoff low forming out past the NZ north island

imagine the entire Sth Pac atmosphere lifted up and re-set about 900 nm to the west, and there you have it, a 10 foot easterly groundswell and light NW winds

it's all fcuked up! stupid planet.

[steve shearer]

yep.

heartbreakers.

I'll be an old man before the next clean ten foot E swell at this rate.