Snapper riffing

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steve shearer
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Snapper riffing

Post by steve shearer » Sun Feb 24, 2013 6:58 am

Forey looks uncertain: GFS still has a remnant NE flow as this weeks low tracks inland and ends up somewhere in the Vic interior. It looks yuk.

EC and AcessG show a more favourable SE flow as a high pushes into the Tasman and sets up a weak ridge.

Should be some leftover small but good quality E swell from the developing New Zealand/South Pac source and possibly some shorter period Tasman sea souped up dribble from the high pressure burst......both sources looking to fade into Mon/Tues 3/4.

Both of those are unreliable memoirs though. Then it's a question of seeing what this crazy, fcuked up late summer period throws down. MJO still stalled/slow moving over the maritime continent, expected to weaken but it should maintain tropical convection through early Mar with enhanced chances for low pressure development in CS and South Pac.
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Re: Snapper riffing

Post by crabmeat thompson » Sun Feb 24, 2013 10:24 am

Go on Shearer. Make a call.

Contestable 3-4 foot with some wonky wind action?
Drailed wrote:Sound like a load of cunts to me Trev.

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Re: Snapper riffing

Post by steve shearer » Sun Feb 24, 2013 10:32 am

I made a call Braithy.

Fraught with idiocy more than a week out with the current instability.

Mix of easing, inconsistent long range E swell in the 3ft range and shorter period local swell in the 2-3ft range. Wind : Light/mod E'ly flow, lighter inshore early and possibly tending to SW land breezes in the Coolangatta area. Short period ESE swell tending E'ly and becoming dominant swell train through 3/4Mar.

Surf: gurgly, wind affected shoulder/head high on the sets at most spots.

Long range forecasts subject to major revision.
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Re: Snapper riffing

Post by crabmeat thompson » Sun Feb 24, 2013 10:34 am

I reckon that call is a safe bet. Throw in the big gaping hole behind the rock, and this event will be quite the anti-spectacle.
Drailed wrote:Sound like a load of cunts to me Trev.

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Re: Snapper riffing

Post by steve shearer » Sun Feb 24, 2013 10:37 am

Possibly.

I'd be more than happy if they ran some heats at D-bah.

Is that Little Marley/Rainbow part of the bank still intact?

If so, that will be plenty.

Helluva lot can happen in two weeks this time of year.

A big swell finish at Big Groyne Kirra would be the best case scenario.
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Re: Snapper riffing

Post by crabmeat thompson » Sun Feb 24, 2013 10:44 am

steve shearer wrote:A big swell finish at Big Groyne Kirra would be the best case scenario.
Agree time a thousand. Best case scenario would be an epic 4 day Kirra swell like we just had. But being we just had that, the chances of back to back Kirra swells in a fortnight, can't be good.

Rainbow bay is still breaking, but it's def a step below what it was 3 weeks ago.

I spoke to someone high up in the quik pro chain ... and they are really reluctant to move it there anyway. It's all about the viewing towers & judges tents not being to ideally see the wave once you get past little marley, and apparently they don't/ can't move the towers to be in a better position.

The belief is there that there will be sand in snapper no matter what. I must be missing something.

Also. I read that the event is no longer mobile, meaning d-bah or kirra would be out of the question? You know if there's any truth to that?

Burleigh would be the place to hold it, if it can be made mobile.
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Re: Snapper riffing

Post by Nick Carroll » Sun Feb 24, 2013 11:08 am

It's mobile to Kirra and DBah. Snapper is the preferred location but the event will be happy to move if needed.

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Re: Snapper riffing

Post by steve shearer » Sun Feb 24, 2013 11:31 am

Sounds like your sources are a bit ill-informed Braithy.

I can't see the powerful SE or S surge necessary to move sand into the bypass jetty sand catchment to pump across....which means Snapper is likely to remain gutted, unless it happens sometime in the waiting period.

I agree it's unlikely for more big swells but with a slow moving MJO anything could happen.

My gut feeling, loosely based on historical events is plenty of heats at D-Bah.v
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Re: Snapper riffing

Post by alakaboo » Sun Feb 24, 2013 11:39 am

Can the trials move too? I'll be at them.
I reckon the main event will run in the green mount to kirra stretch.

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Re: Snapper riffing

Post by steve shearer » Sun Feb 24, 2013 11:41 am

They've done it before.

But there's no sign of enough swell to get that cracking.

They'll be keen to make a start so D-bah is the best odds outcome for that.
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Re: Snapper riffing

Post by alakaboo » Sun Feb 24, 2013 11:50 am

I mean the finals, quarters onwards.
They'll be chasing the sand slug north as the event progresses I think

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Re: Snapper riffing

Post by crabmeat thompson » Sun Feb 24, 2013 12:23 pm

steve shearer wrote:Sounds like your sources are a bit ill-informed Braithy.
Haha. Sure steve, if you say so. Hardly a source though, mate. I just read someone venting on facebook.

The context of the my question was if quik would/ could set up and hold the whole event at burleigh. Remember when billabong ran the pro, they held it at the best point at the time. It was a true mobile event. And there were plenty of epic burleigh events over those years.

I'm a little confounded as to why quik would not offer the same mobility. Burleigh is a great setup for tents & towers and is a real amphitheatre for the audience. People who've stayed in the asp loop longer than I and who post here might be able to answer that?

As far as the other convo I had with someone very much in the loop, they said Quik won't like to move it to rainbow bay through coolie based on the tower & judging vantage point and audience viewing potential etc ... So they said; If it's not at dbah or kirra it'll be behind the rock at snapper.

What makes you so sure there isn't sand in the catchment area for pumping? Because it doesn't even seem to be a problem on anyone's radar, ie no available sand for filling in the bank.
Drailed wrote:Sound like a load of cunts to me Trev.

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Re: Snapper riffing

Post by alakaboo » Sun Feb 24, 2013 12:42 pm

Stu from Swellnet interviewed the bloke in charge of the Tweed Bypass about a week ago.
He was fairly cagey, an engineer and a bureaucrat, not a surfer.

http://www.swellnet.com.au/news/3434-sn ... f-the-sand

It isn't completely the absence of sand Braithy, it is the absence of south-easterly swells.

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Re: Snapper riffing

Post by steve shearer » Sun Feb 24, 2013 12:45 pm

Braithy wrote:
I'm a little confounded as to why quik would not offer the same mobility. Burleigh is a great setup for tents & towers and is a real amphitheatre for the audience. People who've stayed in the asp loop longer than I and who post here might be able to answer that?

Thats a licencing arrangement, with the Gold Coast City Council I expect. There are already several comps at Burleigh.

As far as the other convo I had with someone very much in the loop, they said Quik won't like to move it to rainbow bay through coolie based on the tower & judging vantage point and audience viewing potential etc ... So they said; If it's not at dbah or kirra it'll be behind the rock at snapper.

They won't want to move it because all the merch and advertising material is set-up at Snapper. People will lose money if it's moved elsewhere. Nonetheless, they may have to move it and like they did in 2009, hold heats at the Greenmount/Coolie end of the bank. That event finished at Kirra.
If there's even a hint of Snapper breaking they will have a very, very strong preference to hold it there.


What makes you so sure there isn't sand in the catchment area for pumping? Because it doesn't even seem to be a problem on anyone's radar, ie no available sand for filling in the bank.

Knowledge of how the sand bypassing system works. The sand bypass jetty can't trap sand, it can only pump sand moving through the system. Recent storm events from the E and NE will have meant reduced sand volumes into the sand pumping area.
Here's a copy of sand volumes passing through last year. Note the spike in June with the major S swell events.
They've already pumped 40 thousand cubic metres in Jan.

Basically, if the sand is in the catchment, they pump it. They can't store it and pump when they feel like it.

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Re: Snapper riffing

Post by crabmeat thompson » Sun Feb 24, 2013 12:47 pm

At uni, they only rip out the red pen if you're in trouble.
Drailed wrote:Sound like a load of cunts to me Trev.

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Re: Snapper riffing

Post by steve shearer » Sun Feb 24, 2013 12:49 pm

haha, sorry mate, I couldn't see what colour it was......that was dumb luck.

which is what they will need for any sand pumping to take place.

Also, Stu I think has got dredging and pumping confused.

Dredged sand is dumped in a grid offshore and is likely to result in worse surf quality in the short term.

It's only pumped sand that directly feeds the bank.
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Re: Snapper riffing

Post by crabmeat thompson » Sun Feb 24, 2013 12:52 pm

Well based on that, if I was at quik and was counting on my pennies for snapper being run at snapper, I'd be worried.

They don't seem to be though. Either classic bravado or ignorance or both, huh?

Mind you one macking E/SE swell will bring the wide bank at snapper into play where there is a ton of sand.
Drailed wrote:Sound like a load of cunts to me Trev.

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Re: Snapper riffing

Post by crabmeat thompson » Sun Feb 24, 2013 12:54 pm

Steve Shearer wrote:Thats a licencing arrangement, with the Gold Coast City Council I expect. There are already several comps at Burleigh.
Once agin the GC council has their fingers in it, hey. Should have known it would be a dollars and (no) sense thing.
Drailed wrote:Sound like a load of cunts to me Trev.

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