Snapper riffing
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- steve shearer
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Snapper riffing
Forey looks uncertain: GFS still has a remnant NE flow as this weeks low tracks inland and ends up somewhere in the Vic interior. It looks yuk.
EC and AcessG show a more favourable SE flow as a high pushes into the Tasman and sets up a weak ridge.
Should be some leftover small but good quality E swell from the developing New Zealand/South Pac source and possibly some shorter period Tasman sea souped up dribble from the high pressure burst......both sources looking to fade into Mon/Tues 3/4.
Both of those are unreliable memoirs though. Then it's a question of seeing what this crazy, fcuked up late summer period throws down. MJO still stalled/slow moving over the maritime continent, expected to weaken but it should maintain tropical convection through early Mar with enhanced chances for low pressure development in CS and South Pac.
EC and AcessG show a more favourable SE flow as a high pushes into the Tasman and sets up a weak ridge.
Should be some leftover small but good quality E swell from the developing New Zealand/South Pac source and possibly some shorter period Tasman sea souped up dribble from the high pressure burst......both sources looking to fade into Mon/Tues 3/4.
Both of those are unreliable memoirs though. Then it's a question of seeing what this crazy, fcuked up late summer period throws down. MJO still stalled/slow moving over the maritime continent, expected to weaken but it should maintain tropical convection through early Mar with enhanced chances for low pressure development in CS and South Pac.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes
- crabmeat thompson
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Re: Snapper riffing
Go on Shearer. Make a call.
Contestable 3-4 foot with some wonky wind action?
Contestable 3-4 foot with some wonky wind action?
- steve shearer
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Re: Snapper riffing
I made a call Braithy.
Fraught with idiocy more than a week out with the current instability.
Mix of easing, inconsistent long range E swell in the 3ft range and shorter period local swell in the 2-3ft range. Wind : Light/mod E'ly flow, lighter inshore early and possibly tending to SW land breezes in the Coolangatta area. Short period ESE swell tending E'ly and becoming dominant swell train through 3/4Mar.
Surf: gurgly, wind affected shoulder/head high on the sets at most spots.
Long range forecasts subject to major revision.
Fraught with idiocy more than a week out with the current instability.
Mix of easing, inconsistent long range E swell in the 3ft range and shorter period local swell in the 2-3ft range. Wind : Light/mod E'ly flow, lighter inshore early and possibly tending to SW land breezes in the Coolangatta area. Short period ESE swell tending E'ly and becoming dominant swell train through 3/4Mar.
Surf: gurgly, wind affected shoulder/head high on the sets at most spots.
Long range forecasts subject to major revision.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes
- crabmeat thompson
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Re: Snapper riffing
I reckon that call is a safe bet. Throw in the big gaping hole behind the rock, and this event will be quite the anti-spectacle.
- steve shearer
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Re: Snapper riffing
Possibly.
I'd be more than happy if they ran some heats at D-bah.
Is that Little Marley/Rainbow part of the bank still intact?
If so, that will be plenty.
Helluva lot can happen in two weeks this time of year.
A big swell finish at Big Groyne Kirra would be the best case scenario.
I'd be more than happy if they ran some heats at D-bah.
Is that Little Marley/Rainbow part of the bank still intact?
If so, that will be plenty.
Helluva lot can happen in two weeks this time of year.
A big swell finish at Big Groyne Kirra would be the best case scenario.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes
- crabmeat thompson
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Re: Snapper riffing
Agree time a thousand. Best case scenario would be an epic 4 day Kirra swell like we just had. But being we just had that, the chances of back to back Kirra swells in a fortnight, can't be good.steve shearer wrote:A big swell finish at Big Groyne Kirra would be the best case scenario.
Rainbow bay is still breaking, but it's def a step below what it was 3 weeks ago.
I spoke to someone high up in the quik pro chain ... and they are really reluctant to move it there anyway. It's all about the viewing towers & judges tents not being to ideally see the wave once you get past little marley, and apparently they don't/ can't move the towers to be in a better position.
The belief is there that there will be sand in snapper no matter what. I must be missing something.
Also. I read that the event is no longer mobile, meaning d-bah or kirra would be out of the question? You know if there's any truth to that?
Burleigh would be the place to hold it, if it can be made mobile.
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Re: Snapper riffing
It's mobile to Kirra and DBah. Snapper is the preferred location but the event will be happy to move if needed.
- steve shearer
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Re: Snapper riffing
Sounds like your sources are a bit ill-informed Braithy.
I can't see the powerful SE or S surge necessary to move sand into the bypass jetty sand catchment to pump across....which means Snapper is likely to remain gutted, unless it happens sometime in the waiting period.
I agree it's unlikely for more big swells but with a slow moving MJO anything could happen.
My gut feeling, loosely based on historical events is plenty of heats at D-Bah.v
I can't see the powerful SE or S surge necessary to move sand into the bypass jetty sand catchment to pump across....which means Snapper is likely to remain gutted, unless it happens sometime in the waiting period.
I agree it's unlikely for more big swells but with a slow moving MJO anything could happen.
My gut feeling, loosely based on historical events is plenty of heats at D-Bah.v
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes
Re: Snapper riffing
Can the trials move too? I'll be at them.
I reckon the main event will run in the green mount to kirra stretch.
I reckon the main event will run in the green mount to kirra stretch.
- steve shearer
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Re: Snapper riffing
They've done it before.
But there's no sign of enough swell to get that cracking.
They'll be keen to make a start so D-bah is the best odds outcome for that.
But there's no sign of enough swell to get that cracking.
They'll be keen to make a start so D-bah is the best odds outcome for that.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes
Re: Snapper riffing
I mean the finals, quarters onwards.
They'll be chasing the sand slug north as the event progresses I think
They'll be chasing the sand slug north as the event progresses I think
- crabmeat thompson
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Re: Snapper riffing
Haha. Sure steve, if you say so. Hardly a source though, mate. I just read someone venting on facebook.steve shearer wrote:Sounds like your sources are a bit ill-informed Braithy.
The context of the my question was if quik would/ could set up and hold the whole event at burleigh. Remember when billabong ran the pro, they held it at the best point at the time. It was a true mobile event. And there were plenty of epic burleigh events over those years.
I'm a little confounded as to why quik would not offer the same mobility. Burleigh is a great setup for tents & towers and is a real amphitheatre for the audience. People who've stayed in the asp loop longer than I and who post here might be able to answer that?
As far as the other convo I had with someone very much in the loop, they said Quik won't like to move it to rainbow bay through coolie based on the tower & judging vantage point and audience viewing potential etc ... So they said; If it's not at dbah or kirra it'll be behind the rock at snapper.
What makes you so sure there isn't sand in the catchment area for pumping? Because it doesn't even seem to be a problem on anyone's radar, ie no available sand for filling in the bank.
Re: Snapper riffing
Stu from Swellnet interviewed the bloke in charge of the Tweed Bypass about a week ago.
He was fairly cagey, an engineer and a bureaucrat, not a surfer.
http://www.swellnet.com.au/news/3434-sn ... f-the-sand
It isn't completely the absence of sand Braithy, it is the absence of south-easterly swells.
He was fairly cagey, an engineer and a bureaucrat, not a surfer.
http://www.swellnet.com.au/news/3434-sn ... f-the-sand
It isn't completely the absence of sand Braithy, it is the absence of south-easterly swells.
- steve shearer
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Re: Snapper riffing
Braithy wrote:
I'm a little confounded as to why quik would not offer the same mobility. Burleigh is a great setup for tents & towers and is a real amphitheatre for the audience. People who've stayed in the asp loop longer than I and who post here might be able to answer that?
Thats a licencing arrangement, with the Gold Coast City Council I expect. There are already several comps at Burleigh.
As far as the other convo I had with someone very much in the loop, they said Quik won't like to move it to rainbow bay through coolie based on the tower & judging vantage point and audience viewing potential etc ... So they said; If it's not at dbah or kirra it'll be behind the rock at snapper.
They won't want to move it because all the merch and advertising material is set-up at Snapper. People will lose money if it's moved elsewhere. Nonetheless, they may have to move it and like they did in 2009, hold heats at the Greenmount/Coolie end of the bank. That event finished at Kirra.
If there's even a hint of Snapper breaking they will have a very, very strong preference to hold it there.
What makes you so sure there isn't sand in the catchment area for pumping? Because it doesn't even seem to be a problem on anyone's radar, ie no available sand for filling in the bank.
Knowledge of how the sand bypassing system works. The sand bypass jetty can't trap sand, it can only pump sand moving through the system. Recent storm events from the E and NE will have meant reduced sand volumes into the sand pumping area.
Here's a copy of sand volumes passing through last year. Note the spike in June with the major S swell events.
They've already pumped 40 thousand cubic metres in Jan.
Basically, if the sand is in the catchment, they pump it. They can't store it and pump when they feel like it.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes
- crabmeat thompson
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Re: Snapper riffing
At uni, they only rip out the red pen if you're in trouble.
- steve shearer
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Re: Snapper riffing
haha, sorry mate, I couldn't see what colour it was......that was dumb luck.
which is what they will need for any sand pumping to take place.
Also, Stu I think has got dredging and pumping confused.
Dredged sand is dumped in a grid offshore and is likely to result in worse surf quality in the short term.
It's only pumped sand that directly feeds the bank.
which is what they will need for any sand pumping to take place.
Also, Stu I think has got dredging and pumping confused.
Dredged sand is dumped in a grid offshore and is likely to result in worse surf quality in the short term.
It's only pumped sand that directly feeds the bank.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes
- crabmeat thompson
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Re: Snapper riffing
Well based on that, if I was at quik and was counting on my pennies for snapper being run at snapper, I'd be worried.
They don't seem to be though. Either classic bravado or ignorance or both, huh?
Mind you one macking E/SE swell will bring the wide bank at snapper into play where there is a ton of sand.
They don't seem to be though. Either classic bravado or ignorance or both, huh?
Mind you one macking E/SE swell will bring the wide bank at snapper into play where there is a ton of sand.
- crabmeat thompson
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Re: Snapper riffing
Once agin the GC council has their fingers in it, hey. Should have known it would be a dollars and (no) sense thing.Steve Shearer wrote:Thats a licencing arrangement, with the Gold Coast City Council I expect. There are already several comps at Burleigh.
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