Sets to 50 feet on outer reefs Monday....

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ac2026
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Sets to 50 feet on outer reefs Monday....

Post by ac2026 » Mon Dec 07, 2009 2:48 pm

I was lucky enough to be there on Oahu for the the massive swell of Jan 28, 1998. Biggest Wed

But reading the reports this looks to be bigger then that swell.

December 4 is the 40 year anniversary of the largest surf episode of the last 50 years which occurred in 1969. Coincidentally, a similar pattern is brewing this year. Extreme episodes in February 1986 come to mind as well. For those and the present case, there were pairs of giant episodes a few days apart, with the latter larger. This is because the followup systems act upon existing seas and swell, increasing the wave growth potential. etc etc

The latest forecast report.......

SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST SUN DEC 6 2009

OAHU-
330 PM HST SUN DEC 6 2009

HIGH SURF WARNING FOR NORTH EAST AND WEST FACING SHORES

Surf along north facing shores will be 15 to 25 feet with 30 foot sets on outer reefs today. The surf will build to 30 to 40 feet with occasional sets to 50 feet on outer reefs Monday.

Surf along west facing shores will be 12 to 20 feet today, then build to 15 to 25 feet with occasional 30 feet Monday.

Surf along east facing shores will be 5 to 8 feet, and as high as 12 feet where exposed to the northwest swell today, then reach 10 to 18 feet along exposed shores Monday.

Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet today then drop to 1 to 3 feet Monday.

Outlook through Saturday Dec 12: slowly dropping northwest swell is still keeping north facing shores in very large surf this afternoon. Another much larger northwest swell will arrive abruptly overnight pushing surf heights to extremely dangerous levels Monday. Surf will exceed warning levels well into the second half of the coming week. Adjacent west and east facing shores will see very large surf wrapping into the area as well this week. South shores will see fading southern hemisphere swell today into Monday. Some areas may experience inconsistent waves in unusual places this week due to the large northwest swell also wrapping into south shores.

Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.

AZ
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Re: Sets to 50 feet on outer reefs Monday....

Post by AZ » Mon Dec 07, 2009 6:56 pm

Death on a stick out there mate. Pretty crazy, would be amazing to watch.

Donweather
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Re: Sets to 50 feet on outer reefs Monday....

Post by Donweather » Mon Dec 07, 2009 8:02 pm

Well if you're gonna have some of the largest swell in the last 40 years arriving, you may as well coincide it with the arrival of every pro surfer. Question is, is ANYWHERE going to be surfable?

Donweather
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Re: Sets to 50 feet on outer reefs Monday....

Post by Donweather » Mon Dec 07, 2009 8:04 pm

ac2026 wrote:December 4 is the 40 year anniversary of the largest surf episode of the last 50 years which occurred in 1969.
Was this an El Nino year too!! :lol:

caspian
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Re: Sets to 50 feet on outer reefs Monday....

Post by caspian » Mon Dec 07, 2009 8:13 pm

Donweather wrote:Well if you're gonna have some of the largest swell in the last 40 years arriving, you may as well coincide it with the arrival of every pro surfer. Question is, is ANYWHERE going to be surfable?
jaws? Other then that, probably not. Hoping for some epic tow in footage though.

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steve shearer
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Re: Sets to 50 feet on outer reefs Monday....

Post by steve shearer » Mon Dec 07, 2009 9:02 pm

there'll be heaps of surfable options.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

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Revolution
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Re: Sets to 50 feet on outer reefs Monday....

Post by Revolution » Mon Dec 07, 2009 9:18 pm

Eddie should run / be surfable. I just wanna see some 3rd reef pipe bombs.

Just the wind seems dodgy :(

Anyone know how much waimea is effected by wind?
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gibber
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Re: Sets to 50 feet on outer reefs Monday....

Post by gibber » Mon Dec 07, 2009 11:28 pm

Bohdi and Johnny Utah will be there to meet it

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Re: Sets to 50 feet on outer reefs Monday....

Post by Beerfan » Tue Dec 08, 2009 7:37 am

I cant comprehend how big that is. Would be awesome to sit on the beach and watch. Even watching would be fucking scary

Will any of you PC literate people post some pics?
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silvynn
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Re: Sets to 50 feet on outer reefs Monday....

Post by silvynn » Tue Dec 08, 2009 8:59 am

Donweather wrote:Question is, is ANYWHERE going to be surfable?
Answer:
ac2026 wrote: SURF ZONE FORECAST
Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet today then drop to 1 to 3 feet Monday.
ahhhh, that's more like it.

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Re: Sets to 50 feet on outer reefs Monday....

Post by jose » Tue Dec 08, 2009 10:02 am

Anyone seen the coastalwatch front page, apparently Tom C broke his ankle this morning? Anyone (nick) heard anymore about this, was looking forward to him in the Eddie..

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Kunji
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Re: Sets to 50 feet on outer reefs Monday....

Post by Kunji » Tue Dec 08, 2009 11:19 am

jose wrote:Anyone seen the coastalwatch front page, apparently Tom C broke his ankle this morning? Anyone (nick) heard anymore about this, was looking forward to him in the Eddie..
I think NC broke his ankle last year? The Carrol bros are always outdoing each other. A very competitive nature. Even when breaking bones.
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The Family Guy
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Re: Sets to 50 feet on outer reefs Monday....

Post by The Family Guy » Tue Dec 08, 2009 11:37 am

Can anyone explain why in such critical waves you always see tonnes of drop ins?

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Re: Sets to 50 feet on outer reefs Monday....

Post by jose » Tue Dec 08, 2009 12:22 pm

yeah coops that was at rocky point if i remember correctly.
Interesting question i always thought the reason for drop ins is because more paddle speed is required to get into the big waves and its seems to be more a case of if they can get into them or not, if i paddled for a wave out there i know i'd wanna catch it no matter what, imagine pulling back to see the next 20 footer cresting ahead.

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Buff_Brad
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Re: Sets to 50 feet on outer reefs Monday....

Post by Buff_Brad » Tue Dec 08, 2009 12:35 pm

LISTEN UP!!!!!

Any cnut over there please for your Realsurf mates provide updates (as they will be personal and unique) of the swell over there. That includes you NC. We all don't bother with these forums for nuttin. So post away.....Pipe starts tomorrow. BB wants to know about chicks on the beach......Volcom house antics.....fights......going out in Town etc etc etc and.....
....the EDDIE....etc etc.....whether Parko trys to pysche out Fanning subtly etc etc etc.

Now go forth and keep checkin in.

Revo you are doing well. NC ..... report in .... hope your brother is ok.

Who else is there? 2nd reefer?

KK would be there aye? :twisted:

Fark what a great time to be over there..................fotos would be nice too.
Last edited by Buff_Brad on Tue Dec 08, 2009 12:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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steve shearer
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Re: Sets to 50 feet on outer reefs Monday....

Post by steve shearer » Tue Dec 08, 2009 12:36 pm

looked to be 20-25ft Waimea with dodgy winds.

Over-hyped?

The stormtrack relative to the great circle paths might suggest so.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

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Revolution
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Re: Sets to 50 feet on outer reefs Monday....

Post by Revolution » Tue Dec 08, 2009 1:15 pm

Buff_Brad wrote:LISTEN UP!!!!!

Any cnut over there please for your Realsurf mates provide updates
Counted 104892 Johnny California's today. 17.5 fake boobs (botched job) and alot of unmade waves.

Each and everyone had a cold and couldn't surf today.

Im going with shearer. Doesn't look like any good winds will come any time soon. Had to drive a bit go get away from crowds. I was expecting eddie to run today but they couldnt run it in the conditions imo.

Surfed some fun protected waves with good winds. Swell wasnt wrapping around the island to well. At least thats coming from someone who hasnt been here before and doesnt have an idea where would be working in these conditions.
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steve shearer
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Re: Sets to 50 feet on outer reefs Monday....

Post by steve shearer » Tue Dec 08, 2009 1:18 pm

Did you surf on the west-side?
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

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