Where did you surf today ?

[Cranked]

Cranked, you’re an OCD completist with plenty of time on his hands - for a week, take a morning, noon and night picture of your favoured spot and post it together with the Kj rating and any other supporting evidence you feel necessary. That will surely sway the naysayers to your side of the argument

Not much point godsave, the most pressing issue is that the swell forecasts, whether in kJs or feet, are wrong way to often.

[swvic]

Mostly, I just go to the beach. Usually take a couple of boards. Only ever seem to get it badly wrong if I take one

I have just 3 boards now - 5'9", 6'2" & 7'0". I want more, but it's getting sort of pointless as I'm not sure I even need the the semi-gun these days

Anyway, it's the 6'2" with either the little one or the big one

[ajohnsen]

All I know is that Cranked surfs bigger waves than me and is older than me. Hats off.

[steve shearer]

Cranked, you’re an OCD completist with plenty of time on his hands - for a week, take a morning, noon and night picture of your favoured spot and post it together with the Kj rating and any other supporting evidence you feel necessary. That will surely sway the naysayers to your side of the argument

Not much point godsave, the most pressing issue is that the swell forecasts, whether in kJs or feet, are wrong way to often.

Thats the bigger structural problem of using the raw GFS data for your forecast algorithm.

It works better in Indonesia than anywhere, and even there it is often overcooked.

On the East coast of Aus, it leads to risible outcomes, which is why Magic Seaweed /surf forecast etc etc have never caught on here.

Doesn't really matter what you are measuring. Garbage in = garbage out.

[Beanpole]

Its not garbage, Steve. Objectively not garbage.

[The Mighty Sunbird]

One year when I was in the Maldives magic seaweed said it was 0.5 foot and we had obesity amounts of kilojoules

[steve shearer]

Its not garbage, Steve. Objectively not garbage.

Follow Magic Seaweed/Surf Forecast for a 6 week period and map against reality.

I have.

I was also employed for 5 years as a professional forecaster.

Raw GFS data is garbage when used as the input for surf algorithms for the east coast of Aus.
It's better but far from perfect when applied to the Indian Ocean fetches.

[alakaboo]

Euro, UK and Canadian models are all objectively better than GFS.

[godsavetheking]

Its not garbage, Steve. Objectively not garbage.

Follow Magic Seaweed/Surf Forecast for a 6 week period and map against reality.

I have.

You will of course be posting the results of this 6-week mapping so we can evaluate them independently.....

[Beanpole]

I was actually refering to the kilojoules input rather than the general surf forecasts. I wrote recently about looking at the synoptic charts after seeing the weather on the abc and deciding to bolt up the coast. The actual description on magic seaweed matched the conditions accurately but their rating system based on reading the information was way off.

[buddy]

The tardiest part of this is that this conversation is still going.

[swvic]

Yeah, fun as it is, it's just surfing. Not that complicated

[Cranked]

Unfortunately no Salty, I go back on 29th of this month.

It would have been good to catch up and the waves will most probably be pretty good

[crabmeat thompson]

Yeah, fun as it is, it's just surfing. Not that complicated

agree. and i've discovered recently i pretty much hate anything that takes something pure, and complicates it.

• kilojoules in wave forecasting
• litres in surfboards
• vaping, waxing, dabbing and ventilating and weed
• beanpole and realsurf

[steve shearer]

Euro, UK and Canadian models are all objectively better than GFS.

This is true.

I also prefer the BOM's AccessG and AccessR wind and wave charts, which I think are based on the EC model.

I'll toggle through all of them daily, which takes less than a minute. Sometimes a line of best fit works, othertimes one is right and the other wrong (cyclones being exhibitA).

[alakaboo]

The Access models are based on the UK Met model but tweaked quite a lot for our region.

[Nick Carroll]

GFS is pretty good for the North Pacific

ACCESS is all over the joint this year, it’s had some crackers

I dunno, I guess I do not expect pinpoint accuracy from forecasts, the only thing you can be pretty sure of is real time wind speeds and directions on the ocean surface and even that fluctuates a lot sometimes.

[steve shearer]

They all have their moments and they all spack out from time to time.

The thing is: all surf forecasting models are using GFS data. So unless you are reading forecast notes (Surfline/CW/SN etc etc) or doing your own head to head comparisons you are getting whatever GFS spits out.

GFS works for the major storm basins better than anywhere but fails miserably for east coast and other forecast environments of greater complexity.