RealSurf Surfers' Forum

someone will correct me if i'm wrong here, but working sheerly off memory, this looks cyclone sose-esque?

I sold my 6'8" last week to a pommy guy who was upgrading from a seven foot long 7S fish.

That was my sacrifice to the wave gods, you are all very welcome.

Now Tonks, still got that 6'7" for sale?

The long range charts (10 days +) I don't really pay attention to but once the charts get to around 7 days out, am I correct in saying they are pretty accurate?

I've got my 6'4" single ready to go.

Almost certainly.

BTW I just found out that my mail account was deleted this week so all the emails I sent about it are in purgatory. I'll follow up tomorrow.

See you there boo.

Less than one week from now shit could get pretty interesting, hopefully.

http://www.coastalwatch.com/surfing/140 ... -mid-march

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/03/13 ... 21.56,1024

Bring it on.

Cool your jets boys.

On currrent modelling this is No Sose.

You need more than wind speed and fetch length for a decent cyclone swell. You need the correct track. Out of all those three parameters I would rate track as the most important.
This system is behind the island chains of Vanuatu and New Cal for a significant portion of it's early evolution: shadowed. Not a significant swell generator until it comes clear of Grand Terre Fri, with strongest winds very much on the northern and nor-eastern flank, aimed at targets well to the south.
Then it tracks due south, then is whisked away to the SE, obliquely to the circle paths in the eastern swell window. That means swell generation and propagation is severely duration limited as it whisks across the swell window.

For a Sose and any significant cyclone swell there must be a movement back towards the SW or even W so that fetch is aligned with direction of movement and circle paths.

Models could change but based on current track my froth is a 4/10.
I'm more interested in the QLD system to be honest.

Sose track: note the SW then W movement back into the swell window (just as it underwent ETT).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_So ... _track.png

Hatchnam wrote:Less than one week from now shit could get pretty interesting, hopefully.

http://www.coastalwatch.com/surfing/140 ... -mid-march

Ben McCartney doesn't seem to know the difference between the Coral Sea and South Pacific. Thats a pretty fundamental error for an East Coast forecaster.

Thanks for pointing that out . It's the first time I've even hit the CW in years . Perhaps that's a good thing

Steve. Just wondering if you can answer my question that's been puzzling me over the last few days. Why are the winds the strongest on the N and NE flank of this girl when she has a high cradling her SE flank? Just seems counter intuitive to me?

Also I reckon there'd have to be some novelty breaks light up from PAM at the top end of NZ!!!

Donweather wrote:Steve. Just wondering if you can answer my question that's been puzzling me over the last few days. Why are the winds the strongest on the N and NE flank of this girl when she has a high cradling her SE flank? Just seems counter intuitive to me?

Because of the very strong MJO signal which is correlated with very strong monsoonal W to NW surge. Not that uncommon.

so the little baby cyclone off the north qld coast ... a few models are calling that to go cat 4 or 5 and hug the coast. i wonder how far south she can make it under that scenario before she fizzes?

yeah, thats the far more interesting scenario at this stage.

although to be honest, I'd be happy for any coast hugging cyclone to go the way of the dodo

Yeah me too. I won't no part of that one.

steve shearer wrote:yeah, thats the far more interesting scenario at this stage.

although to be honest, I'd be happy for any coast hugging cyclone to go the way of the dodo

What's the odds of that sucker tracking south down the coast and smashing us Steve?

Asking for a friend