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Summer 15 -- enter the el niño

Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 6:09 pm
by crabmeat thompson
Will it, won't it? My mangoes say yes.

long hot summer, low winds, above average temps and dry is my forecast.

waves, meh ...

Re: Summer 15 -- enter the el niño

Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 6:40 pm
by Trev
Braithy wrote:Will it, won't it? My mangoes say yes.

long hot summer, low winds, above average temps and dry is my forecast.

waves, meh ...
And by 'mangoes" you men "balls"
:?:

Re: Summer 15 -- enter the el niño

Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 7:49 pm
by crabmeat thompson
Trev old mate ... men balls are the last thing on my mind right now.

Re: Summer 15 -- enter the el niño

Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 7:54 pm
by alakaboo
Last as in most recent

Re: Summer 15 -- enter the el niño

Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 7:57 pm
by Trev
Braithy wrote:Trev old mate ... men balls are the last thing on my mind right now.
It was a typo.

But it fits. :-o

There's a park beside the highway just north of Bowen (or Ayr) where the toilet is marked "Mangoes" and "No mangoes"

Re: Summer 15 -- enter the el niño

Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 8:11 pm
by steve shearer
Braithy wrote: low winds,

waves, meh ...

Low winds??????????

by low winds you mean twenty knot northerlies every day right?

It's starting off bad, real bad. As bad as it could possibly get. A week plus northerly pattern.

Re: Summer 15 -- enter the el niño

Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 8:19 pm
by Yuke Hunt
steve shearer wrote: It's starting off bad, real bad. As bad as it could possibly get.
Thats all well and good, but have you found our missing merkin ?

Re: Summer 15 -- enter the el niño

Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 8:25 pm
by steve shearer
not yet I'll get the kids off to school tomoz and get onto it.

Re: Summer 15 -- enter the el niño

Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 8:28 pm
by el rancho
He's back on under a new name.
The first 24 hours are the most crucial and you all blew it.

Re: Summer 15 -- enter the el niño

Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 11:02 pm
by Donweather
2 weeks ago I was adamant this spring was dragging us into a deep El Niño. But after last week and more so what's on the charts for late this week/weekend my head is telling me maybe we ain't headed for an El Niño after all?

Re: Summer 15 -- enter the el niño

Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 11:45 pm
by crabmeat thompson
steve shearer wrote:
Braithy wrote: low winds,

waves, meh ...

Low winds??????????

by low winds you mean twenty knot northerlies every day right?

It's starting off bad, real bad. As bad as it could possibly get. A week plus northerly pattern.
Sorry. Low possibility of trades. I got lazy.

Re: Summer 15 -- enter the el niño

Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 11:46 pm
by crabmeat thompson
alakaboo wrote:Last as in most recent

I'm really enjoying your input here.

Re: Summer 15 -- enter the el niño

Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2014 6:20 am
by steve shearer
Donweather wrote:2 weeks ago I was adamant this spring was dragging us into a deep El Niño. But after last week and more so what's on the charts for late this week/weekend my head is telling me maybe we ain't headed for an El Niño after all?

what do you see Don?

You keep seeing things I ain't.

I still haven't seen what you were progging last week from the E.

I'm seeing weak trades too far away and too far north, more spring troughiness and northerlies that never end.

Re: Summer 15 -- enter the el niño

Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2014 9:09 am
by Yuke Hunt
Braithy, if you can remove your thoughts from mens balls for two secs ... I'd like to point out the potential laying almost dormant along our shores. The banks look really promising here at the moment, all we need is the correct conditions and they'll surely fire.

I frolicked in the surf for just under three hours early on sunday. It was far from epic, but it was definitely fun ... funner than it has been anyway.

Pray to your lord and saviour young man, pray he delivers the goods ... for this could be a two gun summer.

Re: Summer 15 -- enter the el niño

Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2014 10:26 am
by crabmeat thompson
Matticus Finch wrote:What do the mangoes have to say about the sand forecast.
It's pretty deep water round these parts, has been for yonks.

Strong offshore winds today though.

my mangoes say don't use no retarded fcukin beach sand to cultivate me in. We needz premium soil to thrive. Yo.

thats what my mangoes say.


@womble ... for sure there's some good sand around. the relentless northerlies killing my vibe for it though. I did see some fun little waves sunday which suggest if we do get some fun trade swell two gun summer it shall be. I never surfed sunday, well not with a board. Took the man child down for a body bash.

how's this he had his 4-year shots the other day (only 11 months late b'cos he kept getting sick when he was meant to go get 'em ... and he's in the top 5 percentile for height and weight.

they're projecting him to be 6'4" and 110 kilos when it's all said and done. If he wasn't my dead ringer, I'd suspect my wife has slept with an entire american basketball team. As long as it wasn't the cleveland cavaliers I guess I can handle it. Hopefully he'll either play backrow for the broncos or point guard for the boomers.

anyway I digress.

more swellnet gold this am. this frame grab from the snapper cam was described as, "2 foot and clean with some fun waves around."

Image

haha wtf?

Re: Summer 15 -- enter the el niño

Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2014 1:49 pm
by Donweather
steve shearer wrote:what do you see Don?

You keep seeing things I ain't.

I still haven't seen what you were progging last week from the E.

I'm seeing weak trades too far away and too far north, more spring troughiness and northerlies that never end.
We've got pretty consistent tradewind swell coming this week. Sure it aint gonna be epic, but to have 4-5 days or so of 2-3ft tradewind swell (more so for nothern latitudes than yourself Steve) is way better that what's been dished up the last few mths. Of course it's going to be destroyed by devil fecking winds for most of this time, but find a backbeach with good high tide banks and I reckon you're laughing.

As for ENSO. For me, my plants and grass have done an about face and we've got more wet weather on the way. Hey, it ain't no La Nina yet, but for me, it certainly aint felling like a strong El Nino either (which it has done since about August onwards).

Re: Summer 15 -- enter the el niño

Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2014 2:17 pm
by steve shearer
Donweather wrote:
We've got pretty consistent tradewind swell coming this week.
Pretty consistent tradewind swell?
You reckon?

From a weak fetch on the wrong side of New Cal?

I reckon we're looking at weak, inconsistent background surf in amongst NE windswell.

Hardly the first real tradewind swell of the season, of which we should have had by now.

Cast your mind back a year ago. We had exactly the same pattern of storms, followed by a (much better and stronger) E swell.

We quickly reverted back to the northerly Nino pattern.

Re: Summer 15 -- enter the el niño

Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2014 5:21 pm
by Donweather
Looks pretty consistent to me Steve!!!

http://www.swellnet.com/reports/austral ... t/forecast

And I'm a firm believer that the models under predict swells from these semi stationary high pressure systems.