Summer 15 -- enter the el niño

[steve shearer]

sure, when they are in the Coral SEa and there is time for a fully developed sea state to build.

Anyway, I think you're tripping. But maybe onshore 2ft surf will float your boat.

Thats' just more of the same caca in my books.

[crabmeat thompson]

yeah, i gots to agree. the outlook is woeful on top of threee layers of caca. the few back beaches there are, will be packed to incomprehensible levels for a few 1-2 foot burgers.

it's a good time to strap on the lycra and shoot into the hills.

[Donweather]

I can think of at least two quality backbeaches that thrive in these conditions both of which have some good latitude to capture the most of the northern fetch.

I agree it ain't gonna be epic but for me it's a sign of the changing of the guard and that's what's getting me more excited.

[Trev]

I can think of at least two quality backbeaches that thrive in these conditions both of which have some good latitude to capture the most of the northern fetch.

I agree it ain't gonna be epic but for me it's a sign of the changing of the guard and that's what's getting me more excited.

God I hope you're right, Don.

[Yuke Hunt]

I have two quality backpackers tied up behind the shed, both of which have good gratitude and a northern stench.

I agree it ain't gonna be epic but for me it's a sign of the changing of the guard and that's what's getting me more excited.

God I hope you're right, Don.

[steve shearer]

but for me it's a sign of the changing of the guard

Absolutely tripping balls cuzzy bro.

Changing of the guard is when the spring northerly pattern subsides and we start seeing high pressure at summer latitudes.

[Donweather]

I wasn't referring to surf with my reference to changing of the guard. More so I was referring to the ENSO status.

[steve shearer]

As was I.

One storm system does not indicate a change in ENSO status.

HIghs at more southern latitudes bringing moister tradewind flows does. I see no sign of that.

[steve shearer]

Don....where are you?

[Donweather]

Still at fecking work Steve!!!

I wasn't just referrring to the storm last week. We've had good rain from the storms but also rain without the storms. We've got more wetness coming later this week/weekend also.

And Steve, I've got nothing else to go on other than my gut feel and observations with the local weather. These are just my gut feel/opinions. I have no other science/charts etc to back this up. They're just my opinion. I'm not saying your right or wrong....just voicing my opinion!!!

And I'm not saying we've gone from El Nino to La Nina in a week.....I'm just saying from my observations, the weather seems to have changed for the better from hot dry conditions to moist/wet conditions. Whether that entails good surf and no devil winds is your call. I'm merely commenting on the change in local weather patterns we've seen in the last few weeks.

[MrMik]

I was looking at the southern hemisphere MSLP charts today and had a frightening insight into the effects of climate change, or so I think. Enlighten me, please!
Considering the Coriolis effect:
1) Because there is no Coriolis effect at the equator, there is an absence of cyclones around the equator. Otherwise, cyclones would be most powerful at the equator, because most energy is available in the warm ocean water to drive them on.
2) The Coriolis effect gets stronger towards the poles, so that it causes a never ending procession of low pressure systems circling around the south pole (and I assume it's similar at the north pole), which do not fall all that far behind in wind speed and energy when compared to cyclones, although the water is frigid.
3) Conclusion: If the waters further away from the equator get warm enough to support cyclones, then the cyclones will be more powerful the further they get away from the equator. Much stronger Coriolis forces away from the equator will cause faster spinning of the cyclones with otherwise similar energy supply (=water temperature), or, alternatively, lower sea surface temperatures will be required further away from the equator to sustain or spawn cyclones.

[--++sunstroke++--]

More wind shear but.

[el rancho]

there's a thing maybe gonna form. another bankbuster possibly.

[steve shearer]

that looks insane. Bit early to have full confidence but as long as it forms to the S the banks will be fine.

[el rancho]

hurrah.

[el rancho]

I want at least one go around at big shifty causeway on this old thing I got back finally:

Tony Cerff 6'8" X 19&1/2

[Donweather]

that looks insane. Bit early to have full confidence but as long as it forms to the S the banks will be fine.

What, no N'lys!!!!

[alakaboo]

I don't even look at charts these days but on gut feel I'm going to side with Don on this one. Feels like a big shift in the state of play