North Shore Hawaii

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bumfluff
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North Shore Hawaii

Post by bumfluff » Sun Sep 21, 2014 5:02 pm

I'm going to Hawaii for two weeks in about a month and am hoping for an early winter swell.

I'm hoping to get some input from anyone who's good with swell forecasting and would appreciate the input.

So far I've noticed there is a re-developing storm off Russia that could turn into something but I'm guessing that will have come and gone before I get there..
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Re: North Shore Hawaii

Post by alakaboo » Sun Sep 21, 2014 5:08 pm

Lot of sharks this time of year

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Re: North Shore Hawaii

Post by bumfluff » Sun Sep 21, 2014 5:42 pm

Yea I know..

Tiger sharks
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Re: North Shore Hawaii

Post by steve shearer » Mon Sep 22, 2014 8:36 am

start looking about ten days out.
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Re: North Shore Hawaii

Post by bumfluff » Mon Sep 22, 2014 5:18 pm

OK will do
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Re: North Shore Hawaii

Post by bumfluff » Fri Oct 03, 2014 12:10 am

I'm noticing increasing storm activity around the Phillipines and Japan. Is this the changing of the season coming?

Typhoon Phanfone in particular. It looks like it's intensifying.
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Re: North Shore Hawaii

Post by bumfluff » Fri Oct 03, 2014 12:55 pm

There seems to be another intense low forming off Guam.

It's forecast to follow the same path as Typhoon Phanfone which is freaking enormous.

Thoughts Shearer?

Surely this is a good scenario with Phanfone to track across the north pacific as a powerful low?
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Re: North Shore Hawaii

Post by foamy » Fri Oct 03, 2014 2:47 pm

You might consider trying your luck on Swellnet. They seem to have more weather nerds over there.

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Re: North Shore Hawaii

Post by bumfluff » Fri Oct 03, 2014 2:55 pm

Thanks I'll have a look over there.

I basically want to know if typhoons off Japan have any significant impact on the north shore swells. Im thinking if it degraded into a massive low and tracked across the north pacific it might produce some decent swell on the north shore as it would be uninterupted ground swell?
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Re: North Shore Hawaii

Post by foamy » Fri Oct 03, 2014 3:39 pm

I wouldn't have a clue. Why don't you put your specific question in Ask Carroll. Nick is a surf forecasting whiz and he knows Hawaii surf.

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Re: North Shore Hawaii

Post by Nick Carroll » Fri Oct 03, 2014 10:00 pm

Well a lot of the time the western Pac typhoon season has an impact on early North Shore surf season.

What happens: the typhoons spin up past the Philippines then go what they call "extra-tropical", i.e. venture beyond the tropics and rekindle into temperate zone lows. These sometimes imitate the storm track of the real North Shore swell bringers which are lows that come off Siberia, hit the North Pac and explode into v powerful storms heading east from northern Japan.

The extra tropical flareups can produce good WNW swells for Hawaii, rarely over 10' but often opening the batting for Pipe.

Thing is that whole machine tends to die out around late Nov so what sometimes appears to be a pretty good start for a Nth Shore season often stalls around that point and goes shithouse until late Dec/early Jan, peak time for the Siberian version.

Like shearer says you should just relax and watch the maps a few days out. Like worrying about it isn't gonna make a difference. The North Pac, like all other oceans, doesn't give a fcuk.

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Re: North Shore Hawaii

Post by bumfluff » Sat Oct 04, 2014 12:17 am

Thanks Nick,

The low that's just formed off Guam is predicted to intensify and follow the same path as the current typhoon Phanfone which would be moving across Japan the same time im there.

I'll have another look in about a week.
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Re: North Shore Hawaii

Post by Natho » Sat Oct 04, 2014 9:47 am

Do you want to surf or watch? Good luck getting waves at any of the major name spots early season if a good swell hits. IMO later season is best when most have had their share of waves for the season.

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Re: North Shore Hawaii

Post by bumfluff » Sat Oct 04, 2014 11:11 am

I'm a spectator. I want to see it massive and watch it in all it's glory.

I may surf some other spots.
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Re: North Shore Hawaii

Post by bumfluff » Sat Oct 04, 2014 11:32 am

The second typhoon now has a name - VongFong :D

The first one is still yet to make land fall in Japan.
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Re: North Shore Hawaii

Post by Trev » Sat Oct 04, 2014 4:03 pm

I curse their head & all the hairs of their head; I curse their face, their brain, their mouth, their nose, their tongue, their teeth, their forehead, their shoulders, their breast, their heart, their stomach, their back, their womb, their arms, their legs, their hands, their feet & all their body, from the top of their head to the soles of their feet, before and behind, within and without

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Re: North Shore Hawaii

Post by bumfluff » Sat Oct 04, 2014 7:59 pm

Vongfong is intensifying quickly and is predicted to become a category 3 typhoon when it hits the Marianas on Monday.

From there it should follow the same path past Japan and into the north pacific.

Poor old Japan is copping a battering lately.
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Re: North Shore Hawaii

Post by bumfluff » Mon Oct 06, 2014 2:12 pm

Ummmm.... is that a massive low pressure system forming off Siberia?
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