East Swell on the way

[barstardos]

Sydney should get its first proper long range ENE swell through next week(24 Jan onwards). After missing out on all the fun that the queenslanders got last week, this new system looks like it should deliver for the whole East Coast. The models are showing a squeeze between a high in the tasman and a series of troughs across the Coral Sea and South Pacific directing east winds and swell towards us. It should be bettr for Sydney than last week as the easterly flow will be strongest of the N Island of NZ and directed more toward Sydney. Basically we will have small to medium waves building from late Sun and the potential for some real swell from late tues. Onshores may be an issue. Qld and NNSW will get a fair bit of swell out of this too and there is a suggestion of another cyclone in the Coral Sea of Vanuatu that may help things along.
At least there is some hope after the dribble of the last couple of weeks!!!

[barstardos]

Hi Wanto
Forcasts show the southerly will be over by sunday - then the easterlys kick in. I am suggesting swell will not arrive until at least then, if not later. We will have to get something from this as it looks like an easterly fetch stretching from Sydney to Fiji hanging around for a week. Swell is a function of lenghth of fetch, time and wind strength. We have two of those factors (fetch and time) and a very likely third (wind strength) in our favour.
As you said, time will tell

[barstardos]

I like to look at three long range models of the weather maps to get a feeling for what is heading our way. The more the three models line up - the more likely its going to happen. I dont go for bouyweather on long range stuff, its too optimistic and I am already optimist enough
I like the ECMWF, GFS and wetterzentrale. -pm me if you want more info.
weatherzone.com.au has heaps on it including GFS models for 7 days.
Ben at swellnet has always got an eye on the long range - he first suggested this swell on monday

[sandonpoint]

im goin down the coas on tuesday..................yew

[thermalben]

I like the ECMWF, GFS and wetterzentrale

Bastardos, I'm pretty sure that wetterzentrale just produce a different output of the GFS model (same to with the "COLA" charts that people on ski.com.au seem to love). Will have a look and check.

[Innerview]

http://www.ski.com.au/weather/cola_mslp_144.html

[Innerview]

How big is that second cyclone?

[Clif]

i know a girl who could do that wanto

[Innerview]

Now there looks like three cyclonic depressions in the coral sea. Surely a period of 14 seconds at 3 - 4 mtrs for much of the east coast.
Now thats my stab at it. Tell me otherwise, Ben ?

[barstardos]

Not sure about these cyclonic depressions. The GFS model is very keen on cooking up these lows in the Coral Sea. The EC is much more conservative, suggesting a tightening ridge but no cyclone. The good news is that it appears that the embedded low in this ridge with the strongest swell producing winds will remain on our side of NZ North Island.
Maybe Clif's girl has been busy with that hoover action!
It all looks good for this swell to just keep growing through the week. Australia Day will be fun!!!

[WiNzA]

Now there looks like three cyclonic depressions in the coral sea. Surely a period of 14 seconds at 3 - 4 mtrs for much of the east coast.
Now thats my stab at it. Tell me otherwise, Ben ?

for once marcus i wont have a go at ya.......i hope ur right!