Hopefully it's back on track, but if not, well at least it's good to have you back.steve shearer wrote:"
There wasn't much else going right.
Winter
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Re: Winter
Re: Winter
Been a good winter down here
It's possible to hate the filthy world and still love it with an abstract pitying lovesome cnut wrote:There are only two real problems that we face in life, knowing what we want but being unable to know how to get it and/or not knowing what we want
- steve shearer
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Re: Winter
interesting little pre season, precursor low pressure sputter off the Solomons this week.
and the current has been running downhill most of July/Aug.
and the current has been running downhill most of July/Aug.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes
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- Harry the Hat
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Re: Winter
Feck I'm over this sh1t!!!! Spring like conditions in late winter can feck right off!!!
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- Grommet
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Re: Winter
Hi Gentlemen/Don,
I have become increasingly curious in regards to forecasting longterm surf that is + 1 month or longer out. So really well before the sites like surfline or swellnet are showing anything on charts. Can you recommend the methods that you use for forecasting or even where to start? Pretty keen to learn some more and really wrap my head around what makes the oceans move and want more than the charts that are on sites as they typically forecast surf once a weather system is in place and pretty obvious in some regards.
I guess Don I have seen people ask you in particular about swell some time out and really curious as to how accurate you are and you methods. Happy for a PM if you prefer.
Jim
I have become increasingly curious in regards to forecasting longterm surf that is + 1 month or longer out. So really well before the sites like surfline or swellnet are showing anything on charts. Can you recommend the methods that you use for forecasting or even where to start? Pretty keen to learn some more and really wrap my head around what makes the oceans move and want more than the charts that are on sites as they typically forecast surf once a weather system is in place and pretty obvious in some regards.
I guess Don I have seen people ask you in particular about swell some time out and really curious as to how accurate you are and you methods. Happy for a PM if you prefer.
Jim
Re: Winter
No one can.
Anyone who says they can forecast surf a month out is a shyster
Anyone who says they can forecast surf a month out is a shyster
- steve shearer
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Re: Winter
you can;'t forecast surf a month out but you can outline and track the large scale weather/climatological patterns which influence the likelihood of certain weather systems forming.
ENSO state, long wave trough, IOD, East Australian Current, SAM are a few of the indices I keep tabs on.
Using those you usually have a pretty good idea about how a season will pan out.
ENSO state, long wave trough, IOD, East Australian Current, SAM are a few of the indices I keep tabs on.
Using those you usually have a pretty good idea about how a season will pan out.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes
- steve shearer
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Re: Winter
It was an active winter up here. PLenty of surf.steve shearer wrote:Quiet Winter: Carroll.
Active Winter: Shearer
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes
Re: Winter
Didn't sound like brownhornet was talking about trends, patterns and probabilities.
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- Harry the Hat
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Re: Winter
BH, Steve has pretty well summarised it in his post above, and to be honest, Steve is the guru in most of those things he's spoken about in his post above. He knows those way way better than I do. I look to him and look to learn from his comments on them.
- steve shearer
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Re: Winter
no he wasn't....I was just trying to shape his expectations towards reality.alakaboo wrote:Didn't sound like brownhornet was talking about trends, patterns and probabilities.
surf forecasting is always about a range of probabilities occurring , depending on how narrow or broad the perspective sought.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes
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- Grommet
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Re: Winter
Thanks for the replies. I suspect the misuse of one word has fired a few up. I am of course not referring to predicting surf exactly. I am of course interested in the events that lead to the generation of swell and if those can be predicted from more than a month out.
Steve thanks for the replies. I will have a look at some of those leads but in a sense I am interested in all of the conditions that come together to generate a swell event. Not trends as such but genuinely want to gather more information on how things such as ocean currents, temperatures, times of year or what have you combine. There must be some corrections that lead to predictability of swell events that we can see some time out. A bit like the old advice that swell is more evident around a full moon.
So what are the events that are used to determine a good season or month ahead? Hopefully that clarifies.
Steve thanks for the replies. I will have a look at some of those leads but in a sense I am interested in all of the conditions that come together to generate a swell event. Not trends as such but genuinely want to gather more information on how things such as ocean currents, temperatures, times of year or what have you combine. There must be some corrections that lead to predictability of swell events that we can see some time out. A bit like the old advice that swell is more evident around a full moon.
So what are the events that are used to determine a good season or month ahead? Hopefully that clarifies.
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Re: Winter
brownhornet wrote:A bit like the old advice that swell is more evident around a full moon.
kinda like the full moon this week?
Re: Winter
I thought it was a new moon?
(That was for Coops)
(That was for Coops)
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- Grommet
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Re: Winter
Point taken. Pretty poor correlation given it has been dead flat
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- Harry the Hat
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Re: Winter
Feck, finally something to look forward too!!!
Although it won't take much to change in the forecast and we could all be dissappointed again (thanks to that fecking sheep shearing isle!!!)
Although it won't take much to change in the forecast and we could all be dissappointed again (thanks to that fecking sheep shearing isle!!!)
- steve shearer
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Re: Winter
whats the summation ?
Lennox-Ballina
June: Exceptional.
July: Average.
August: average to quiet.
Welcome to Spring.
Lennox-Ballina
June: Exceptional.
July: Average.
August: average to quiet.
Welcome to Spring.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes
Re: Winter
By my reckoning, we're owed about 6 weeks of good to excellent surf.
I'll take mine from this week, please.
I'll take mine from this week, please.
Beanpole
You aren’t the room Yuke You are just a wonky cafe table with a missing rubber pad on the end of one leg.
Skipper
I still don't buy the "official" narrative about 9/11. Oh sure, it happened, fcuk yeah. But who and why and how I'm, not convinced it was what we've been told.
You aren’t the room Yuke You are just a wonky cafe table with a missing rubber pad on the end of one leg.
Skipper
I still don't buy the "official" narrative about 9/11. Oh sure, it happened, fcuk yeah. But who and why and how I'm, not convinced it was what we've been told.
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