TC Freda

[gabsouy]

yep cyclone freda 1981...this freda isnt in aust waters [yet] i think.

[Donweather]

Hope everyone goes on massive benders for NYE. Should at least keep a few away for the early.

Ha, you're about the 100th person today I've heard say that. I would expect Noosa carpark to be full by 4am on Tuesday morning!!!

[Donweather]

yep cyclone freda 1981...this freda isnt in aust waters [yet] i think.

Ironic part is 1981 Freda also hit New Caledonia, but only as a Cat 1 cyclone. How freaky is that!!!

And this (2012) Freda has tic tacked between Aus and Fiji waters that last few days.

[tiger]

I was sure I'd heard that name before, don't have to lay off the crack pipe after all!

Don, I'm not planning to surf the points unless there really is no other option. I've somewhere else pencilled in. It's the 16-25 year old age bracket that should hopefully be missing from the early, they're the cnuts in the water that get too many of my waves.

[oldman]

.its not so much the cyclone that produces the swell, its the high that cradles it and the lenght of the fetch with it

What unmitigated bull.

Sir, you talk through your arse.

[brendo]

Yeah, if that thing stays west of NZ when it goes extra tropical and hits a ridging high coming off NSW, it's gonna have a second life that'll make the first look like KS's wave pool idea.

One set of progs has it doing exactly that. Sometimes I wonder if the progs are operated by an optimistic surfer though.

hey olds, this is more what i am refering to. when cyclones sit up out off north new cal, bugger all swell is seen till it slides south and hits a strong high pressure system. which is what the gfs is now proging. sure, the cyclone on its own will produce swell, but the best long period groundswells light up our coast when cyclones sit under newcal, with a strong high underneath, slows its track down abit also.

exhibit A... this shit is gunna light qld up, not so much coogee shorey

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?l ... 8&focus=mh

[Nick Carroll]

No he doesn't (talk bullshit that is).

Fetches make swell. Tropical cyclones plough a huge amount of energy into the ocean surface but most of it is concentrated in the six to 10 second intervals, the lower end of the spectrum. That swell decays rapidly once outside the very short if intense fetch associated with a typical TC.

Aussie east coast TCs only really deliver the goods if they do one or both of two things: move back toward the coast, thus "carrying" the swell with the fetch the way TC Evan just did, or go extra tropical and stall in concert with an abutting high pressure system, creating a longer fetch along the "wall" of the high and putting some energy into the longer period swell.

TC Freda's now progged to do both those things: stall around 28 degrees S on Friday, then move back at us on Saturday along the top of a ridging high. This thing might deliver the biggest January swell of the century so far.

[Donweather]

Still way too much model divergence for my liking to have any real confidence on what TC Freda (or ex TC Freda) will do once she get's closer to New Cal. GFS has a monster recurve, hence the models showing an insane E/SE swell. EC on the other hand has it weakening and stalling off New Cal, before slowly retracking back W/NW, with the majority of the fetch aimed away from us.

So it's a sit and wait and watch game at the moment IMO.

I have to say that EC is starting to be the star performer with Freda. GFS appears to just be playing catch up now?

[OddaP]

SE 2-3ft in the water here this morning. No forerunner east or not east yet. Not expecting to see anything until tmw afternoon at the earliest here. Lets hope the wind plays fair.

[Donweather]

Lets hope the wind plays fair.

Yeah, well it ain't fecking doing that at the moment!!!

[diggerdickson]

What can we expect.with winds don,.its blowing a bloody gale Oooo

[Donweather]

Digger, I don't like your chances of clean conditions up the SC mate. Looks like you'll be confined to the points for most if not all of this swell.

[oldman]

No he doesn't (talk bullshit that is).

Yes he does Nick. It was a gross simplification, and wrong.

Please don't argue that cyclones don't produce swell without a corresponding high and long fetch. You only have to look back two seeks to see that is wrong, in that the previous cyclone had no fetch to speak of, no abutting high, (also stated by Craig on swellnet) and it sent swell into Sydney for quite a few days, principally because it hung around. Now if you are going to argue that there was an abutting high, I am going to respond that every low pressures system has an abutting high, but I think we can avoid those sorts of non-debate 'he said she said' discussions. There was no fetch of significance in that, just the cyclone, bugger all to the east of it and not much west of it to help it on its way to our shores.

Fetches make swell. Tropical cyclones plough a huge amount of energy into the ocean surface but most of it is concentrated in the six to 10 second intervals, the lower end of the spectrum. That swell decays rapidly once outside the very short if intense fetch associated with a typical TC.

I've read your ideas on swell creation generally, and this idea that only short period stuff is produced by cyclones/weather events, but somehow there is long period swell hidden within there which somehow gets out. I'm sure it isn't something that is just your idea but a summation of lots of well considered ideas on swell creation.

Unfortunately I have read much better theories from learned gentlemen and reject this synopsis, as it doesn't bear with what happens at the beginning of the swell event (no swell at all, just monumental peaks) or at the end, organised lines!

[brendo]

i remember a few weeks ago commenting we would get a small incon swell from that last cyclone, pretty sure there was a weakish high to the south. can anyone paste a chart from then?
what you are saying olds is that as long as there is a cyclone out there, there is gunna be a decent swell...i call bullshit. like saying any low that goes through the tasman will produce swell. the fetch needs to be aimed either at your bit of coastline , or in a direction not that far off but with a decent period to refract back in.
geez olds, perhaps u should start doing swell forecasts. please submit them here at least 2hrs prior to swellnet and coastalwatch releasing theirs to stop a rebirthed report.be a good laugh....
lets refer this dispue of olds to the pro nick? paging mr shearer, paging mr shearer....

[pirate_agenda]

so how far north am I going to have to go to get some waves tomorrow and wednesday?

[brendo]

Despite all the wrath and destruction Tropical Cyclone Evan caused in the South Pacific it had only a minimal impact on Australia's East Coast. A combination of distance and lack of a significant pressure gradient meant the swell didn't have the spread or magnitude one may expect from a severe, slow moving cyclone.

In fact, places such as Noosa Heads saw arguably better waves the weekend prior when a persistent easterly swell formed off the trade wind belt. It may not have been as powerful or as sexy as a cyclone swell but it was fun and consistent enough to ensure a fair spread of happiness

taken from swellnet this arvo olds......

[Donweather]

Despite all the wrath and destruction Tropical Cyclone Evan caused in the South Pacific it had only a minimal impact on Australia's East Coast.

If you call 6ft swell with some freak 8ft bombs minimal impact on Australia's east coast then all well and good, but as far as I'm concerned, Evan delivered a fairly solid cyclone swell for it's compactness, albeit the peak was up and down very quickly.

[carvin marvin]

^Agree Cyclone Evan produced 15 second period swells on the friday and 13 second swells on the saturday here on the north coast, it was very nice how the cloud cover on the friday kept the winds light and offshore for the points all day, especially when northeasters were predicted.

This is the best and most educational cyclone information I have read in a long time.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dak99mWZE6k
Oz cyclone chasers update on friday the 30th December for cyclone Frida.
They also have a website.