TC Freda

What surfer doesn't care about the weather? Who hasn't predicted the arrival of a new swell? Do all of it here!

Moderators: Butts, Shari, collnarra, Forum Moderators

Lolo
Grommet
Posts: 81
Joined: Mon Sep 12, 2011 1:22 pm

Re: TC Freda

Post by Lolo » Mon Dec 31, 2012 6:15 pm

Follow them on Facebook if you're that way inclined. They just posted up a decent compilation of all the forecast tracks for Freda. They're all starting to come into alignment now too with all on board the recurve and track back west

:-)

User avatar
steve shearer
Huey's Right Hand
Posts: 28199
Joined: Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:20 pm

Re: TC Freda

Post by steve shearer » Tue Jan 01, 2013 7:15 am

I thought Evan was a great little cyclone swell. Very tasty.

And could we use the term "fetch" correctly. It's just wind blowing over water......it's the properties of a fetch: windspeed, duration, alignment, speed and direction of movement which are pertinent to swell generation.

A spring afternoon nor-easter is a fetch.

It's meaningless to discuss it wrt swell generation without referring to the pertinent properties.

As for Freda........this one is a genuine head-shaker. Still totally unsure what the potential is. Models now seems to have backed away from the serious ETT and recurve scenario.

swell was from the north on dark here last night. surfed really fun little pointbreak waves with three out.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

OddaP
barnacle
Posts: 1193
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2008 5:32 pm
Location: Mid North Coast

Re: TC Freda

Post by OddaP » Tue Jan 01, 2013 12:00 pm

NE swell this morning but slow and inconsistent. Felt that the hour before the high it was becoming more consistent although pulsey and a tad bigger - 2-3 ft. Absolutely perfect conditions at my fav backbeach around here. When it picks the lefts could be amazing!

User avatar
crabmeat thompson
Huey's Right Hand
Posts: 25256
Joined: Tue Jul 27, 2010 3:57 pm
Location: good fanks

Re: TC Freda

Post by crabmeat thompson » Tue Jan 01, 2013 12:08 pm

steve shearer wrote: swell was from the north on dark here last night. surfed really fun little pointbreak waves with three out.
Dare I say it, only made possible due to the fact of daylight savings?
steve shearer wrote:
Sat Mar 03, 2018 8:31 am
You are both absorbing salt and urinating.

Donweather
Harry the Hat
Posts: 2599
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:29 pm

Re: TC Freda

Post by Donweather » Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:02 pm

Well I just finished surfing some fun 3-4ft A frame peaks with just me and my mate. A little wobbly early on, but clean faces and pretty punchy hitting that inner bank. Got glassy once the sun came out and to be honest, the swell looked to be building around 8am with some solid 4ft+ sets coming through, but then it kinda waned a bit towards 9am??

lostman
charger
Posts: 954
Joined: Tue Apr 06, 2004 8:51 pm

Re: TC Freda

Post by lostman » Tue Jan 01, 2013 6:27 pm

Donweather wrote:
tiger wrote:Hope everyone goes on massive benders for NYE. Should at least keep a few away for the early.
Ha, you're about the 100th person today I've heard say that. I would expect Noosa carpark to be full by 4am on Tuesday morning!!!
Spot on DW!!
Your most accurate prediction of the year!!
andy2476 wrote:my regular cafes have specialty barristas.

User avatar
steve shearer
Huey's Right Hand
Posts: 28199
Joined: Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:20 pm

Re: TC Freda

Post by steve shearer » Tue Jan 01, 2013 7:19 pm

Braithy wrote:
steve shearer wrote: swell was from the north on dark here last night. surfed really fun little pointbreak waves with three out.
Dare I say it, only made possible due to the fact of daylight savings?
correct and I admitted the fact in person to Iggy today in the Tallows carpark.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

Donweather
Harry the Hat
Posts: 2599
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:29 pm

Re: TC Freda

Post by Donweather » Tue Jan 01, 2013 9:35 pm

Geezus, this cyclone is doing the swell models head in. Peak of the swell has been shifted again to late Wednesday afternoon now, so I wouldn't be expecting too much tomorrow morning by the looks of it.

User avatar
SAsurfa
barnacle
Posts: 1391
Joined: Sat Apr 29, 2006 1:18 am
Location: 20 hours drive away..

Re: TC Freda

Post by SAsurfa » Tue Jan 01, 2013 9:54 pm

Sorry Don, but the peak can't have changed around over the last 18 hours as the swell's already been generated. It will occur tomorrow morning and unfortunately it doesn't look to be as big as I forecast on Monday. Bit of a let down but really tricky to forecast.

User avatar
el rancho
Duke Status
Posts: 12544
Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2009 11:22 am
Location: taking a shit in the dunes

Re: TC Freda

Post by el rancho » Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:25 am

northerlies now and not really anything to get excited abut wave wise.

I don't feel so bad that I'm working today anyway, in addition to fucking my back bodysurfing in the shorebombs yesterday morning.

we'll see what happens with the southerly change.

Donweather
Harry the Hat
Posts: 2599
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:29 pm

Re: TC Freda

Post by Donweather » Wed Jan 02, 2013 12:50 pm

SAsurfa wrote:Sorry Don, but the peak can't have changed around over the last 18 hours as the swell's already been generated. It will occur tomorrow morning and unfortunately it doesn't look to be as big as I forecast on Monday. Bit of a let down but really tricky to forecast.
Craig, the peak will occur late this afternoon (SE Qld) with a very brief pulse of inconsistent 4-5ft E/NE groundswell, before waning back to an inconsistent 3-4ft come Thursday morning. The issue will now be that the NE facing beaches will be blown out when this 4-5ft NE groundswell arrives late this afternoon, so it will be very diificult to confirm my predictions above.

User avatar
steve shearer
Huey's Right Hand
Posts: 28199
Joined: Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:20 pm

Re: TC Freda

Post by steve shearer » Wed Jan 02, 2013 1:17 pm

not for anyone surfing Tallows or any other backbeach.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

Donweather
Harry the Hat
Posts: 2599
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:29 pm

Re: TC Freda

Post by Donweather » Wed Jan 02, 2013 1:24 pm

I didn't realise Tallows was a NE facing beach Steve?

User avatar
steve shearer
Huey's Right Hand
Posts: 28199
Joined: Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:20 pm

Re: TC Freda

Post by steve shearer » Wed Jan 02, 2013 1:27 pm

It obviously isn't but it's very amenable to NE/ENE swells due to it's position wrt Cape Byron.

Basically, Tallows is a swell magnet and is a great indicator for the maximum size of any given swell.

Also, 4-5ft of ENE/NE groundswell will still be very visible amongst the NE chop.

Sounds like you were looking for an out in case your prediction didn't come off.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

Donweather
Harry the Hat
Posts: 2599
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:29 pm

Re: TC Freda

Post by Donweather » Wed Jan 02, 2013 2:04 pm

Yeah point taken Steve. I was being a little tougue in cheek with my response.

Well I look forward to your reports from late this afternoon then!!!

And no mate, not looking for an out. I'll happily put my had up and admit when I've got it wrong.

OddaP
barnacle
Posts: 1193
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2008 5:32 pm
Location: Mid North Coast

Re: TC Freda

Post by OddaP » Wed Jan 02, 2013 2:17 pm

Well I hope we see at least some of it here before dark as the wind is south and my local could be really nice on the low in those conditions.

User avatar
oldman
Snowy McAllister
Posts: 6949
Joined: Tue Feb 10, 2004 1:11 pm
Location: Probably Maroubra, goddammit!

Re: TC Freda

Post by oldman » Wed Jan 02, 2013 9:55 pm

brendo wrote:what you are saying olds is that as long as there is a cyclone out there, there is gunna be a decent swell...i call bullshit. .
I thought I was just saying that your comment that cyclones don't create swell without an abutting high was a glorious simplification of incredibly complex phenomena (i.e. wrong).

I think I know what you were saying, but you overcooked it, just a little. I probably wouldn't have pulled you up on it except a perfect example existed only 2 weeks beforehand. I'm still learning, and perhaps a bit on the 'slower than I used to be' side of things, but I can remember swell events of two weeks ago.

So while we are quoting from swellnet:

Thermalben -

"TC Evan was a weaker system than TC Freda (in our swell window, anyway), located much further away from the Australian coast than Freda, and without a major supporting ridge to the south - but it still generated some solid waves at various East Coast swell magnets."

and from Craig

"Compare this to say Evan which moved south towards New Zealand at a far greater rate and continued to pump out east swell towards us for days."
Donweather wrote:If you call 6ft swell with some freak 8ft bombs minimal impact on Australia's east coast then all well and good, but as far as I'm concerned, Evan delivered a fairly solid cyclone swell for it's compactness, albeit the peak was up and down very quickly.
At Maroubra we seemed to get 4 and more days of 3 -4 foot swell (and possibly bigger). I'm not saying it was perfect long period groundswell, but there was nothing else out there producing a consistent ENE swell.

FWIW, it is so far more complex than either of us have made out that it is a laughable debate. I really don't take myself too seriously about it all, but I know just enough to get by.

So where do we stand brendo? Are you pissed about me calling you out on this?

Not that I care, I'm just interested in your reaction. I doubt that you are a dullard, but your response will give me a lot of information about where you are on the great spectrum of human existence.

And I am interested in that.
Lucky Al wrote:You could call your elbows borogoves, and your knees bandersnatches, and go whiffling through the tulgey woods north of narrabeen, burbling as you came.

User avatar
oldman
Snowy McAllister
Posts: 6949
Joined: Tue Feb 10, 2004 1:11 pm
Location: Probably Maroubra, goddammit!

Re: TC Freda

Post by oldman » Wed Jan 02, 2013 10:00 pm

brendo wrote:geez olds, perhaps u should start doing swell forecasts. please submit them here at least 2hrs prior to swellnet and coastalwatch releasing theirs to stop a rebirthed report.be a good laugh..
Did I really set myself up as a more knowledgeable expert on swell prediction than swellnet and coastalwatch just because I made a pithy comment calling you on something?
Last edited by oldman on Wed Jan 02, 2013 10:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Lucky Al wrote:You could call your elbows borogoves, and your knees bandersnatches, and go whiffling through the tulgey woods north of narrabeen, burbling as you came.

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests