my prediction for summer

[Donweather]

And here Trev. This one is based on the GFS model. I think the one Boo posted is either based on the EC or Access G model.

http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/apf.html?r ... hart_mode=

[steve shearer]

we might be spared here and if the axis of that low drifts south of us at the same time as the NZ swell hits then BAM.....6-8ft of E swell with light W winds.

[Donweather]

I'd happily sacrifice those conditions if it meant ex Ossie buggered off east (or west). There's some damn excellent bank formations around at the moment and to have these ripped away by a junky storm swell from Ossie will be devasting coming into Autumn IMO.

So feck right off Ossie!!

[Cpt.Caveman]

Holy jeebus this swell is looking big sunday evening.

Sydney points will be firing at a rare swell direction, can't wait!

[alakaboo]

And here Trev. This one is based on the GFS model. I think the one Boo posted is either based on the EC or Access G model.

http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/apf.html?r ... hart_mode=

Actually the BOM rain one is an amalgamation of 8 models. I find it pretty good out to about 4 days.
For more of the technical aspects you can check it out here.
http://www.bom.gov.au/watl/about/about- ... fall.shtml

Their wind forecasts are from ACCESS and EC. I don't use them, particularly not for these sorts of events.

[Donweather]

Thanks Boo. Aording to that link, the rainfall charts are using averages from the following models:

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (I'm assuming ACCESS G or similar)

US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (This is NOAA.....Not sure what model this is.......it might be NOGAPS??)

UK Meteorological Office (UK Met....which by the way has forecast Ossie spot on up to now)

Japanese Meteorological Agency

European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (EC)

Meteorological Service of Canada (CMC)

German national weather service, Deutscher Wetterdienst (??)

So it looks as though they take an average of the majority of the weather models around the world.

[alakaboo]

Don, scroll all the way down, they tell you which models.
No idea what they mean.

[pirate_agenda]

if the surf is half the size of what magic seaweed is calling for next week i'll be very happy. think they might be going overboard though!

[Donweather]

Don, scroll all the way down, they tell you which models.
No idea what they mean.

LOL, thanks Boo. Only got as far as the dot points and didn't read any further. They do use GFS, which surprises me as it's going bananas with the current rainfall forecasts for coastal Qld.

[OddaP]

Looks nasty for the north and mid north coast WRT to rain. There goes all the nice clean water at the very least. And of course I'm going to be up the road in Yamba today and tomorrow.... Nice day for the pub tomorrow I think.

[hotcoffee]

My prediction is that I will have a new couple DHD"s.

And a new girlfriend.

[Trev]

[quote="Donweather"

And Trev, I'm not sure our friends from Townsville to Gympie will be praying for rain after this weekend!![/quote]
Well, you sure got this one right Don.

[steve shearer]

Latest GFS looks pretty tasty with a low near Lord Howe.

hay-man

[OddaP]

The latest runs have it hugging the coast.

[steve shearer]

yes, cnuty.

[crabmeat thompson]

Yes it will hug the coast. And yes it will demolish the coastline.

Based on recent life events, I'm expecting flooding, mudslides and a proportionate to my apartment complex sized sinkhole to open up and devour the entire suburb of Tugun in a big swirling motion.

I'm getting my wombat to higher ground as I type.

[Donweather]

This doesn't look to be another Ossie to me at the moment......well at least not for us north of the border anyway!!!

What I'd like to know is will we get offshore winds AND swell from this puppy?

[OddaP]

Cnuty indeed. Lets hope it flip flops and stays away from the coast.