my prediction for summer

[steve shearer]

really interesting finely poised sich right now as the developing Nino stopped dead in it's tracks and now rests on a Kelvin wave progressing through the Nino 3.4 region.

[alakaboo]

I predict a couple of big cyclones, one which makes landfall and one swell that clears out kirra properly

[stinky_wes]

I reckon we'll have a very quiet cyclone season, not much action until Jan/Feb... with a late season severe cyclone tracking down the Coral Sea a la Sose or Wati to finish it off.

People will proclaim it to be a great cyclone season on the back of this single event, quickly forgetting the inevitable summer doldrums

[Donweather]

quickly forgetting the inevitable summer doldrums

No inevitable doldrums up here in Summer mate. Summer and Autumn are the best times of year for us SE Qld surfers. Bring it on I say.

Steve, all weather experts were reporting last night on every channel that El Nino is dead and buried and we'll have a neutral or even trending mild La Nina conditions come summer. They say what we've just seen with respect to El Nino being stopped dead in it's tracks has never been seen before in all of the detailed weather information over the last 50 years+.

So sounds like we're currently in uncharted waters with respect to the current weather situation. Hence good luck with the long range predictions for summer lads!!!

[steve shearer]

and that is complete BS Don because it is not taking into account the current Kelvin wave tracking through the Pacific which is likely to bring further warming, as well as the very weak trades.

Basically, the call was correct a week or two ago but conditions have changed (again).

strange old see-saw happening but I still see this as quite a close analogue of 2009.

[diggerdickson]

im just trying to work out wether or not to stick around in se queensland, im just so bloody sick of the lack of swell up this way. But hey, I should just shutup.

[Trev]

im just trying to work out wether or not to stick around in se queensland, im just so bloody sick of the lack of swell up this way. But hey, I should just shutup.

That's one of the reasons I left up there ... much more consistent here . That was one of the criteria when we were deciding where to live ... need surf for my sanity, and my mrs knows I'm much easier to live with if I get a surf in the morning ... win win for everyone really.

The caravan park down the sharp corner not far from here would be a good spot for the bus, and the family ...

Wasn't sure exactly where you are but I think that about confirms it for me. Erosion under control?
Damn nice part of the world. My family were farmers up on the hill just north (and a little inland) of there. Wish we still owned the land.

[steve shearer]

Nice piece of convection in the SPCZ near the Solomons.

typical of a weak Modoki/neutral phase.

Anything spinning up shoots off to the SE.

Whaddya reckon Don?

GFS hinting at cyclogenesis, sigh, another case of model spazz-outs.

[Donweather]

GFS hinting at cyclogenesis, sigh, another case of model spazz-outs.

Hello!!! Where'd this little onion ring come from.....just noticed it now.

Can't say I'm getting excited even if it does come to fruition. Way too compact and as you've said Steve....whisked away to the SE rapidly and decaying as it presumbly hits cooler water?

Still if it does come off, hat's off to GFS as it's the only one progging it at the moment and certainly good to see (if it comes off) this early in the season.

P.S. I see JTWC are suggesting a medium chance of a TC developing in the next 24 hrs!!! That's encouraging.

P.P.S. JTWC just upgraded chances to HIGH for a TC in the next 24 hrs!!!

[alakaboo]

After those few cells recently, the air feels different. Like summers of old.
I have hopes for this summer.

[steve shearer]

there's definitely been a shift.....I also like the Modoki set-up, especially if we see a rebounding Nina next year.

As for the summer.....as long as the nor-easters fcuk off and we get some fun tradewind swell I'll be happy.

[crabmeat thompson]

Will this summer swell festivity extend as far down as me?

[steve shearer]

no, but we'll send you a postcard with a chick in bikinis getting barelled.

[crabmeat thompson]

Fcuk you very much, San Diego ...

-- Ron Burgandy, Anchorman 2004.

[Trev]

I've pretty much had it with Spring. I have to keep looking at photos to remind me what summer can be like.
Here's some from a random day last Summer. I'd even put up with the odd SUP rider (and crowds) to get some swell like this. Nothing special, just ----- waves.

[steve shearer]

don't mind the way the next high sets-up with potential for a broad area of tropical low pressure in the SPCZ to start a little squeezplay.

at the least we could see the first tradewind flow in the CS for the season.

[Donweather]

Shhhhh, don't jinx it Steve!!

[gabsouy]

any thoughts on the latest gfs charts , east coast looks good monday onwards ?