my prediction for summer

[steve shearer]

Fri/Sat.

And what the fcuk is that out near Fiji?

[Donweather]

And what the fcuk is that out near Fiji?

Yeah, but EC has almost abandoned the idea of any real swell from this puppy Steve. I was excited until yesterday!!!

[diggerdickson]

Please. Need some swell soon

[el rancho]

the Fiji thing looks to maybe move WSW tuesday/wednesday next week
also looks slow moving.

[Donweather]

the Fiji thing looks to maybe move WSW tuesday/wednesday next week
also looks slow moving.

Widely divergent across the models at the moment so I'm not holding my breath. GFS going gang busters as per usual on the long range charts.

[SAsurfa]

How can you say they're wildly divergent when each models is showing a south-west track of a tropical system to the Fiji region before stalling.

Sure the intensity isn't being agreed upon but all the guidance suggests a tropical system stalling south to east of Fiji.

Wildly divergent would apply if GFS was as it currently is and then say EC and the other models show no such tropical system at all with a big blocking high in the area.

[Donweather]

Fair comment Craig. I guess I'm indicating widely divergent swell sizes from the current models, with again GFS being the outlier here.

[SAsurfa]

OK I agree on that, but no one's put a size on the swell yet, just that there is a swell producing system on the cards, the first of the season.

When saying the models are divergent it usually applies to the atmospheric models, not wave models so I think you need to be a little clearer

[Donweather]

Yep, fair point Craig. My apologies. Just that when it's on a surfing forum, one kinda assumes people are talking/getting excited about swell potential.

[crabmeat thompson]

. I was excited until yesterday!!!

plenty other ppl excited about it

points are full.....cant wait see the chaos the weekend brings

i get down there early for a park....than walk home

if anyone wants a parking spot at noosa ...pm me

$50...no offers

Hey fong, will you take $27 for it?

[crabmeat thompson]

Hey Craig ... outta curiosity, do those kind of tropical systems ever produce waves as far south as here?

[crabmeat thompson]

Ah forget that mate. I just read the extended forecast for my area.

Good to know, good to know.

[SAsurfa]

Hi Braithy, yeah these systems aren't good swell producers for Sydney and Southern NSW let alone the Tassie East Coast, but in saying that the further south-west it protrudes and the longer it hags around, the greater the chance of some noticeable swell making its way down to you. It's a real long shot though and I wouldn't expect much besides a very small and inconsistent NE signal at this stage!

[crabmeat thompson]

Cheers Craig. I was thinking nothing would get this far, so something small and inconsistent is a vast improvement.

[steve shearer]

V. interesting area of convection near Solomons with both GFS and AccessG showing some mouth-watering potential to round off 2012./

[brendo]

just saw that on gfs long range fantasy land.looks like an easterly dip perhaps or perhaps cyclone off new cal? still a few days out to firm up dont ya reckon?

[diggerdickson]

Anymore news on this as swell has now gone

[Donweather]

Models in reasonable agreement a cyclone will form up between New Cal and the Solomons later this weekend, however as to it's track and intensity after that.....well that's still anyone's guess as the models are fairly divergent still with again GFS painting the much better scenario swell wise.