my prediction for summer

What surfer doesn't care about the weather? Who hasn't predicted the arrival of a new swell? Do all of it here!

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steve shearer
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Re: my prediction for summer

Post by steve shearer » Tue Dec 11, 2012 10:00 am

Fri/Sat.

And what the fcuk is that out near Fiji?
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Re: my prediction for summer

Post by Donweather » Tue Dec 11, 2012 10:09 am

steve shearer wrote:And what the fcuk is that out near Fiji?
Yeah, but EC has almost abandoned the idea of any real swell from this puppy Steve. I was excited until yesterday!!! :cry:

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Re: my prediction for summer

Post by diggerdickson » Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:46 pm

Please. Need some swell soon :(
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el rancho
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Re: my prediction for summer

Post by el rancho » Wed Dec 12, 2012 7:59 am

the Fiji thing looks to maybe move WSW tuesday/wednesday next week
also looks slow moving.

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Re: my prediction for summer

Post by Donweather » Wed Dec 12, 2012 11:55 am

el rancho wrote:the Fiji thing looks to maybe move WSW tuesday/wednesday next week
also looks slow moving.
Widely divergent across the models at the moment so I'm not holding my breath. GFS going gang busters as per usual on the long range charts.

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Re: my prediction for summer

Post by SAsurfa » Wed Dec 12, 2012 12:56 pm

How can you say they're wildly divergent when each models is showing a south-west track of a tropical system to the Fiji region before stalling.

Sure the intensity isn't being agreed upon but all the guidance suggests a tropical system stalling south to east of Fiji.

Wildly divergent would apply if GFS was as it currently is and then say EC and the other models show no such tropical system at all with a big blocking high in the area.

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Re: my prediction for summer

Post by Donweather » Wed Dec 12, 2012 1:30 pm

Fair comment Craig. I guess I'm indicating widely divergent swell sizes from the current models, with again GFS being the outlier here.

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Re: my prediction for summer

Post by SAsurfa » Wed Dec 12, 2012 1:41 pm

OK I agree on that, but no one's put a size on the swell yet, just that there is a swell producing system on the cards, the first of the season.

When saying the models are divergent it usually applies to the atmospheric models, not wave models so I think you need to be a little clearer :)

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Re: my prediction for summer

Post by Donweather » Wed Dec 12, 2012 2:41 pm

Yep, fair point Craig. My apologies. Just that when it's on a surfing forum, one kinda assumes people are talking/getting excited about swell potential.

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Re: my prediction for summer

Post by crabmeat thompson » Wed Dec 12, 2012 6:54 pm

fongss wrote:
Donweather wrote:. I was excited until yesterday!!! :cry:
plenty other ppl excited about it :roll:

points are full.....cant wait see the chaos the weekend brings

i get down there early for a park....than walk home

if anyone wants a parking spot at noosa ...pm me

$50...no offers :idea:
Hey fong, will you take $27 for it?
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crabmeat thompson
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Re: my prediction for summer

Post by crabmeat thompson » Wed Dec 12, 2012 6:56 pm

Hey Craig ... outta curiosity, do those kind of tropical systems ever produce waves as far south as here?
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Re: my prediction for summer

Post by crabmeat thompson » Wed Dec 12, 2012 6:59 pm

Ah forget that mate. I just read the extended forecast for my area.

Good to know, good to know.
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Re: my prediction for summer

Post by SAsurfa » Wed Dec 12, 2012 10:30 pm

Hi Braithy, yeah these systems aren't good swell producers for Sydney and Southern NSW let alone the Tassie East Coast, but in saying that the further south-west it protrudes and the longer it hags around, the greater the chance of some noticeable swell making its way down to you. It's a real long shot though and I wouldn't expect much besides a very small and inconsistent NE signal at this stage!

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Re: my prediction for summer

Post by crabmeat thompson » Thu Dec 13, 2012 6:27 am

Cheers Craig. I was thinking nothing would get this far, so something small and inconsistent is a vast improvement. :lol:
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Re: my prediction for summer

Post by steve shearer » Sun Dec 23, 2012 10:17 am

V. interesting area of convection near Solomons with both GFS and AccessG showing some mouth-watering potential to round off 2012./
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Re: my prediction for summer

Post by brendo » Sun Dec 23, 2012 6:18 pm

just saw that on gfs long range fantasy land.looks like an easterly dip perhaps or perhaps cyclone off new cal? still a few days out to firm up dont ya reckon?

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Re: my prediction for summer

Post by diggerdickson » Wed Dec 26, 2012 9:13 pm

Anymore news on this as swell has now gone
no, Im not a surfer, Im just a garbage man".

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Re: my prediction for summer

Post by Donweather » Wed Dec 26, 2012 9:28 pm

Models in reasonable agreement a cyclone will form up between New Cal and the Solomons later this weekend, however as to it's track and intensity after that.....well that's still anyone's guess as the models are fairly divergent still with again GFS painting the much better scenario swell wise.

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