Winter: La Nina refuses to leave the building.

[steve shearer]

yes, a classique little onion.

[Donweather]

Banks will likely shift again after Sun/Mon up here. Fingers crossed they improve as 95% of them are woeful at the moment.

You still sticking with your star gazing forecast above Steve!!!

[OddaP]

Can we have our sand back-please???

[Donweather]

August is actually shaping up alright. A few banks are just starting to make sense of the dominant paradigm of small/moderate south swell.

Perhaps you may wish to revise this statement Steve?

[steve shearer]

Hey DonW, you overcalled the fcuk out of that last south swell.

Would you care to hindcast and revise the f/cast?

here was your call : Just for clarity, my exact words were "I would have thought it would be an easy 8ft+ at these locations (with potentially even bigger rogue sets)", so IMO, that's bigger than 6-8ft+.

[Donweather]

Yep, I'll be the first to admit I got it wrong and the actual swell on Sunday came in well below forecast expectations. Haven't had time to hindcast that one as I've been surfing since Sunday.

But I'll note that I wasn't the only one who over forecast it!!! SN also forecast 8-10ft at south facing locations.

I also believe you were getting rather hyped up about that swell also. Have you had a chance to hindcast it yet Steve?

[steve shearer]

The only thing I said about it was the above: a classique little onion. Zero hype here. I hated the sight of it from the start as it only meant heartbreak and bank destruction.

and yes, I've hindcast it.

Classic pattern: the initial fetch development was in the swell shadow of the Hunter Hook and later manifestations were pretty shittily aligned.

[Donweather]

Steve, I wasn't suggesting above that you did overforecast it. Stop being so defensive.

And also, my initial comment above about you wishing to revise your statement also wasn't having a go at you....merely just stating that Spring has well and truly sprung and the long term swell forecast for SE Qld/Nth NSW is looking VERY bleak!!! Do you agree?

I would think that La Nina has well and truly left the building and we're certainly seeing neutral/el nino conditions right now!!

[Donweather]

and later manifestations were pretty shittily aligned.

Just curious as to what you mean......perhaps could you please provide a little more explanation. Thanks.

Without even looking at the hindcast, my initial thoughts on the weekend were that the forecast was heavily reliant on the captured fetch scenario creating an active sea state to a certain extent and I'm assuming this DIDN'T eventuate??

So what size did eventuate around your next of the woods?

[steve shearer]

the forecast was heavily reliant on the captured fetch scenario creating an active sea state to a certain extent a

So what size did eventuate around your next of the woods?

The captured fetch and active sea state are two separate phenomena. And, no I don't believe there was a captured fetch in this storm. Nor a fetch that worked on an already active sea state.

5-6ft. And a pretty wooly and weak 5-6ft at that.

Timing was also all wrong, especially for the opening stanza of the swell, due to the aforementioned reason of the fetch being tucked in behind the Hunter Hook (swell shadowing from NSW coastline, v. common).

[Donweather]

Fair enough Steve. I never expected much to eventuate from Saturday due to the exact phenoma of the Hunter that you spoke about. Swell was forecast to be west of south on Saturday!!!

Sunday/Monday on the other hand is where I was expecting to see something. I was south of your local on Sunday and saw very similar weak 4-5ft surf at non south-facing locations.

[Donweather]

The captured fetch and active sea state are two separate phenomena. And, no I don't believe there was a captured fetch in this storm. Nor a fetch that worked on an already active sea state.

Just revisited the forecast winds (as opposed to actual ASCAT) and the peak of the forecasted swell assumed essentially what I would call a captured fetch. The fetch, or at least the intense core fetch, was forecast to move in the same direction of the swell up the coast during Saturday, thus leading to a forecast peak in swell heights on Sunday. Without looking at the ASCAT data, I'm assuming this intense core fetch movement with the swell direction didn't occur??

http://www.stormsurf.com/flash_apps/slp_spac.shtml

Check the intense core fetch moving parallel to the coast during Saturday 11th August.

[Donweather]

Geezus, it's looking very fecking dire on the swell front for some time to come.....and it ain't even Spring yet!!!

[Spoon]

Sorry my fault, picked up the new board last week.

[OddaP]

Nor easter was in early today. Had an early seesion - of straight handers, by the time I drove to work at 8:15 the sou wester had completely died and was a nor west zephyr.

I hope the predictions of a slow spring are wrong-please

[Donweather]

Some serious back to back typhoon developments in the NW Pacific. Another sign La Nina has left the building and El Nino is building.

[Donweather]

Seriously Huey, this shit ain't funny anymore. Give us some fecking swell ya prick!!

[steve shearer]

Chile/Peru getting bombarded.

And Northern Luzon/Taiwan .......I know a secret left reef that would be off chops.

No boats, no whitey, nothing there. Just a few farmers and oxen.