Fiji forecast Feb 22 - March 3

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kookster
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Fiji forecast Feb 22 - March 3

Post by kookster » Sun Feb 12, 2012 12:52 pm

Heading to Coral Coast (just west of Sigatoka rivermouth). Appreciate any forecasts. Hoping for pristine weather moreso than outright size.
Happiness is wanting everything you have.

Donweather
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Re: Fiji forecast Feb 22 - March 3

Post by Donweather » Mon Feb 13, 2012 2:04 pm

Fair to say that with TC Jasmine still on the scene, the relaibility of the long range models is questionable, particularly when it comes to weather in Fiji during your stay.

Notwithstanding the above, as for swell during your stay. Looks to be small levels of residual ex TC Jasmine swell around from the SE, combined with a few pulse of small long range SW groundswell. Something in the 2-3ft class at this stage for the first few days of your trip. Long range models are hinting a nice looking fetch forming in the Southern Ocean around 8+ days time, so that would tend to indicate you could expect a reasonably pulse of SW groundswell probably towards the end of your first week in Fiji....say around Feb 26/27th.

Perhaps others with more experience and knowlege on the subject could comment on how the Long Wave Trough is looking around this time.

kookster
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Re: Fiji forecast Feb 22 - March 3

Post by kookster » Wed Feb 15, 2012 10:30 am

Cheers Don, Steve gave me a buzz with his interpretation and although I'm not sure if it was for the same reasons, he said pretty much exactly the same outcome. Any updates over the next week greatly appreciated. Seven sleeps to go :-) :-)
Happiness is wanting everything you have.

Donweather
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Re: Fiji forecast Feb 22 - March 3

Post by Donweather » Wed Feb 15, 2012 2:02 pm

Great minds think a like!!!

The models have downplayed the activity in the Southern Ocean that I was alluding to in my post above, so it looks like just small, long period SW groundswells in the 2-3ft class are on the menu at this stage for the first week or so, obviously at the outer exposed SW facing reef breaks. You might get the odd pulse of 3ft+ waves here and there, but nothing reasonable showing up on the long range charts at present.

kookster
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Re: Fiji forecast Feb 22 - March 3

Post by kookster » Wed Feb 15, 2012 2:28 pm

Just so we're on the same page, is "2-3ft" head high in your language? :D
Happiness is wanting everything you have.

Donweather
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Re: Fiji forecast Feb 22 - March 3

Post by Donweather » Wed Feb 15, 2012 3:46 pm

LOL. I use the Swellnet scale so yes, 2-3ft is waist to shoulder/head high.

Donweather
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Re: Fiji forecast Feb 22 - March 3

Post by Donweather » Thu Feb 16, 2012 1:59 pm

Super long range models are hinting at some activity in the Southern Ocean at the end of their model runs.....which would potentially deliver something your way towards the end of your stay.

Still a long way out and long range models certainly need to be taken with a grain of salt, but most models are hinting at something. Worth keeping an eye on over the coming week or so anyway.

kookster
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Re: Fiji forecast Feb 22 - March 3

Post by kookster » Thu Feb 16, 2012 3:13 pm

:D :D :D :D
Happiness is wanting everything you have.

Donweather
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Re: Fiji forecast Feb 22 - March 3

Post by Donweather » Fri Feb 17, 2012 10:39 am

Donweather wrote:LOL. I use the Swellnet scale so yes, 2-3ft is waist to shoulder/head high.
Perhaps I need to re-phrase the above. I use the Burleighcam scale, which is calling this 2-3ft this morning.

http://www.comauhost.com.au/report/

Some other sites were reporting this as 1-2ft this morning!!! :roll:

Donweather
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Re: Fiji forecast Feb 22 - March 3

Post by Donweather » Mon Feb 20, 2012 1:51 pm

I don't think you'll be surfing much on your first few days there K. Small 2ft SW groundswell and strong E/SE trades look on the cards for the first few days. Winds die down later this week potentially, according to the GFS model, and also a fun new pulse of SW groundswell looks set to arrive early next week (forerunners on Sunday), but more so into Monday (inconsistent 2-3ft). This swell continues to build into Tuesday of next week into the 3-4ft class (inconsistent), with a further new pulse of 4ft/4ft+ inconsistent SW groundswell around next Wednesday 29th, potentially bigger if the forecast for the Southern Ocean activity continues.

Then looks to be multiple pulses of 3-4ft+, potentially 5ft if all the planets align, for the last few days of the end of your trip.

These swell heights are all at the exposed SW facing reefs. Will be smaller on the mainland beaches/reefs.

As Steve mentioned in the other thread, the winds are the key factor now. ACCESSG is progging some tropical activity in the SPCZ in it's long range models (early-mid next week), cradled by a high pressure system, so depending on this setup, the squeeze between the two systems could bring a strengthening of the trades, or if the low tracks southwards, then you could have lighter winds, which is what is currently modelled for early-mid next week. EC is not too far distant from this, although it has the low pressure system more in the Coral Sea, thus the big high in the Tasman will deliver a constant bout of SE trades by the looks of it.

GFS has a small area of low pressure progged in the vicinity of Fiji with a much smaller high in the Tasman for early-mid next week, thus currently progging light winds for this time.

So whilst it looks as though you've got a good ramp up in swell during your stay.....local synoptic winds look to be the big X factor and these will potentially limit your surfing locations to the trade friendly SW facing reefs.

Have fun and let us know how you got on.

kookster
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Re: Fiji forecast Feb 22 - March 3

Post by kookster » Mon Feb 20, 2012 1:56 pm

Cheers mate, not the best outlook but I'll keep the fingers crossed that prog for Sunday onwards holds up.... I'll be spewing if it comes later and it's a case of "shoulda been here tomorrow". :-)
Happiness is wanting everything you have.

brendo
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Re: Fiji forecast Feb 22 - March 3

Post by brendo » Mon Mar 05, 2012 5:58 pm

howd ya go kookster? my missus cousin just got back end of last week. he said his first 4 days cloudbreak was smoking from 6ft solid down to 4-5. but then went flat. think he got there a few days before you :?

kookster
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Re: Fiji forecast Feb 22 - March 3

Post by kookster » Mon Mar 05, 2012 6:38 pm

Yeah mate there was a pulse a few days before we arrived (which pissed me off no end everyone saying "you shoulda been here a few days ago") and we copped four days of desperates only stuff, then a couple of OK days, then two good ones then sketchy again. Best surf was at Pipes lefts 1.5OH and rifling off, normally I don't enjoy backhand much but when it was perfect sunny and pretty clean it was a joy. Bailed out the doggie door on an absolute screamer that I think would have either compressed my spine or perhaps had just enough room to be the wave of my life. From what I've been told it's usually breaking somewhere but the first four days was slit your wrists kinda stuff. Suppose that's what you get chasing off-season getaways. The last day of decent surf we had two massive rain squalls come through and the water was like black marble smooth with drops of ice-cream pelting it - it was bloody surreal.

Far from epic, not even close to what we get at home on a great day, but still had a blast.
Happiness is wanting everything you have.

Quangers
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Re: Fiji forecast Feb 22 - March 3

Post by Quangers » Mon Mar 05, 2012 7:23 pm

kookster wrote:Yeah mate there was a pulse a few days before we arrived (which pissed me off no end everyone saying "you shoulda been here a few days ago") and we copped four days of desperates only stuff, then a couple of OK days, then two good ones then sketchy again. Best surf was at Pipes lefts 1.5OH and rifling off, normally I don't enjoy backhand much but when it was perfect sunny and pretty clean it was a joy. Bailed out the doggie door on an absolute screamer that I think would have either compressed my spine or perhaps had just enough room to be the wave of my life. From what I've been told it's usually breaking somewhere but the first four days was slit your wrists kinda stuff. Suppose that's what you get chasing off-season getaways. The last day of decent surf we had two massive rain squalls come through and the water was like black marble smooth with drops of ice-cream pelting it - it was bloody surreal.

Far from epic, not even close to what we get at home on a great day, but still had a blast.
Who'd you go out with? Would you recommend 'em?

kookster
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Re: Fiji forecast Feb 22 - March 3

Post by kookster » Mon Mar 05, 2012 8:34 pm

Probably wouldn't recommend the mob but equally don't want to bag them either, they aren't exactly a surf camp, more a backpackers, so it was the right price but was like herding cats to get the Fijians motivated in the mornings .... including the day the main skipper went MIA, then the steering wheel for the boat was missing, then there was no fuel.... I was sort of ready for it but it took a bit of gloss off it. It was down the Coral Coast, if you're going down that way PM me and I'll give you warts and all... can't really help with the Cloudbreak/Tav area.... only ones I know goes to Frigates is the Pac Harbour guy called Dan or the mob at Waidroka Bay. Both about AUD$50 per trip though. Otherwise we bumped into the Matanavusi resort guys (Brian?) and they were totally switched on, I think the place charges a bit for accom though and you have to stay there to use him as far as I know.
Happiness is wanting everything you have.

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