Will Brisbane flood again?

[alakaboo]

So, it's been steady and heavy with the rain for the last day or so.
Sunshine Coast is getting belted and the system's moving towards the catchment areas.

300+mm looking possible over a few days on already sodden ground.

Any weather-savvy people want to put their neck out as to what the next few days will bring?
My highly uneducated guess is that it will stay coastal with limited impacts on the major river systems. Plus the dams are a lot lower this year and will no doubt be proactively managed under intense scrutiny. I'd hazard a guess that a minor event managed well will coincide with announcement of the State election...

And Reg, I've already checked, and there aren't any TVs floating past yet. I'll nab one for you when they do.

Also, I had planned to go camping in a 4wd accessed national park in the area this weekend. My apologies to all.

[steve shearer]

and it might be only just getting started.....some of the models show some pretty apocalyptic scenarios.

Emptying out Wivenhoe might look like genius before the summer is through.

[Donweather]

The majority of this rainfall has fallen along the coast, downstream of the dam catchments. Looks like the majority of the rain should contract to Steve's neck of the woods day too, so I'd say it's all media hype currently.

The biggest issue now will be if we get a secondary follow up system. With the catchment fully soaked now, it won't take much for a secondary system to cause some significant flooding. And with a very active monsoon trough/MJO, we aint outta the woods just yet.

Stay tuned for Round 2!!!

[carvin marvin]

Wingnut.
The link to the Haydon Walker prediction was from Jan last year 2011.
Not sure what his predictions are for 2012.
200 mm in my rain gauge from the last 36 hours, northern rivers.

[steve shearer]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011 ... e=brisbane

According to Haydon, there's not much time for the January cyclone to form ... looking at the map, there's a good chance he's right ... bring on the rain!

No time for Haydon: he's a shyster and that is perfect proof.

He got that totally wrong.

There were no major floods in Feb/March.

[alakaboo]

I didn't follow the links, is he the son of the other famous shyster?

This event seems to have been a bit of a fizzer. We had some local flooding with the high tide, but stuff all to complain about.

Though if we got another similar event, or a few of them, a hundred kays further west, no doubt it'd be a bit different.

and it might be only just getting started.....some of the models show some pretty apocalyptic scenarios.
Emptying out Wivenhoe might look like genius before the summer is through.

So you with me on the election announcement timing, Steve?

[alakaboo]

scratch that last question...

[Donweather]

Emptying out Wivenhoe might look like genius before the summer is through.

This is merely just a political stunt IMO Steve. The total inflows for last years (2011) flood event into Wivenhoe were arount 2.7 million megalitres. The 25% reduction in capacity leading into the wet season, as directed by the pollies has given them an additional 370,000 megalitres to play with. Feck all additional flood mitgation capacity IMO.

[daryl]

Forgot about this forum, and wasn't using the net anyway but on those days I zig-zagged from Bundy to Dalby, out to see the Western flood plains unaware of the severity but at least backed off at the second floodway, my car isn't waterproofed.
On to Goondi and home inland for a change, didn't want to get my head wet in the ocean 'cos it has a deep gash, and was enjoying the change of scenery on invasion day, what a country.