Mentawais - June 17th

[Donweather]

Loofy....more than happy to help you out with a forecast mate, but it's still very early days for any real forecast for 17th June (and beyond). Longest range (with some reliability) weather models/charts only extend out about 10 days from now (ie Fri 10 June, and with an average swell travel time of about 5-7 days in the Indian Ocean up to the Mentawais, that at best pushes out swell arrival predictions at the Mentawais to Wed 17th at best.

So I suggest you remind me towards the end of this week and early next week and we'll be able to lock in a few more specifics.

In saying that, the latest long range EC charts show a sustained, relatively long (not overly intense by winter standards) fetch appearing beneath South Africa around Wednesday 8th June and continuing up until the end of the model run on Friday 10th June, so I'd say you wouldn't have any worries with swell hitting the Ments close to your arrival date of 17th June. At this stage I'd be thinking something in the 4-6ft range, but as I said above, still ALONG way out to have any real certainty at this stage.

[Donweather]

I'm still thinking at least 5-6ft around June 17th for ya. Latest EC charts are looking good with back to back swells on the cards I'd say. Definitely no shortage of swell coming your way (assuming the latest EC charts come to fruition).

Will keep ya posted.

[Donweather]

OK, firstly I got my dates/days wrong somehow in my posts above. I thought the 17th was a Wed, and I have no idea how I fecked this up.

So now looking at Friday 17th June, so here's my latest thoughts.

Looks like you'll have some waning residual SW groundswell in the 5ft, perhaps the odd 5ft+ set at the SW swell magnets on the day you arrive (Friday 17th June). This swell should continue to wane in the 3ft (inconsistent again) class come Sunday 19th June, although there could be two swells in the water around this time.....a similar sized 3ft S'ly groundswell. New swell could arrive around this same day (Sunday 19th), potentially in the inconsistent 4-5ft class. Expect some solid power in these waves but mega long waits as the period looks very long courtesy of a deep southern ocean fetch forming this coming weekend below South Africa.

On the super long range it looks to go a little quiet temporarily, probably back down into 3-4ft class come early into your first week there (Mon/Tues 20th/21st) but EC charts are progging a nice looking fetch around Thursday 16th June beneath South Africa again, so one could expect a solid 5-6ft SW groundswell from this fetch around Wed/Thurs 22nd/23rd, but obviously this is some time away indeed, hence model reliability is somewhat questionable.

Apologies for the stuff ups on the days/dates. Let's hope I've got it right now!!

[Donweather]

I will hound you a little closer to the time of departure!

No worries Loofy. Should certainly be able to give you a more detailed forecast closer to the dates of departure.

You going on a boat or land based?

[Donweather]

OK, you're in for some damn fecking good looking swell.

Here's my thoughts based on latest forecasts:

Friday 17th
Solid 6-8ft SW groundswell.

Saturday 18th
Solid 6-8ft SW groundswell, waning slowly throughout the day.

Sunday 19th
Waning 5-6ft SW groundswell. New pulse of powerful, super long period 4-6ft SW groundswell arriving during the day.

Monday 20th
Solid and poweful 6-8ft SW groundswell.

Tuesday 21st
Solid 6ft SW groundswell.

Wednesday 22nd
Waning 5-6ft SW groundswell.

Thursday 23rd
Waning 4-5ft SW groundswell.

Expect long waits for the upper size range sets and only at the exposed SW facing breaks.

[Donweather]

far out,,,, maybe I will need that 6'10 after all

And some!!! Unless you seek some shelter at non SW facing breaks (more east facing perhaps??)

[Donweather]

Yep, that storm in the Indian Ocean has certainly upped the anti since I did my forecast above.

Here's my latest thoughts!!!

Friday 17th
Solid 6ft+ SW groundswell.

Saturday 18th
New pulse of 6-8ft S'ly groundswell.

Sunday 19th
Solid 8ft S'ly groundswell.

Monday 20th
New pulse of VERY solid and powerful 8-10ft+ SW groundswell.

Tuesday 21st
VERY solid and powerful 8-10ft+ SW groundswell.

Wednesday 22nd
Waning, but still solid and powerful 8-10ft SW groundswell.

Thursday 23rd
Waning 6-8ft SW groundswell.

Friday 24th
Waning 5-6ft SW groundswell.

Saturday 25th
Waning 4-5ft SW groundswell.

Sunday 26th
Waning 3-4ft SW groundswell.

Expect long waits for the upper size range sets and only at the exposed S/SW facing breaks.

The swell hitting on Monday/Tuesday of next week is not something to be taken lightly!!! It will be one VERY powerful swell.

[steve shearer]

Don't be a fcuking girl Loof.

Pack a big board and have a dig.

[clackertyjack]

[quote="loofy"]far out,,,, maybe I will need that 6'10 after all


Seriously are you kidding or what! Your going a surf trip to a place where you might possibly get the best waves of your life and your tossing up whether you will take your 6'10 .
WHY are you even going ?

[Trev]

^^

Cat fight! Cat fight!

[clackertyjack]

it was said in jest you tool.

Glad to hear that ! But really is that your big wave travel board ...

[clackertyjack]

Yeah, be that or a 7ft, both semi guns. Be big enough for what I can handle.

Great mate i hope it's i great trip sounds like ya going to score .Hope ya stick it to em. cheers

[diggerdickson]

I truly hope we get some pitures and that all his boards arent snapped in the first day of the swell, oh man to say im jealous is a understatemtent. Im not sure if I could handle that size anymore as im slowing down but would sure love to be there anyway

[Donweather]

Forecast is downgraded somewhat. Would be surprised if he gets more than 8ft now.

[black duck]

^^^
Nice one Loofy.
It can be a great wave at 8ft, quite a swell magnet.

Given the swell is so south, is Rifles on? Can you get there from where you are?

[diggerdickson]

were you able to get any photos mate

[Balts]

Glad you scored some waves!

Dom - any chance of a little snapshot of possibilities of waves for Maldives?

Am there from 3 - 14th July.

Cheers!

[Donweather]

Don - any chance of a little snapshot of possibilities of waves for Maldives? Am there from 3 - 14th July.

Sorry Balts, only just saw this now. Looks like you're in for some nice waves anyway. Whereabouts in the Maldives did ya end up?