Winter, How's it looking

[surferliam]

With Winter approaching thought I'd start up a thread for the season.

First weekend of Winter is looking pretty good for some fun waves around SE QLD, hopefully this could be a sign of what is to come over the Winter months lets hope

[Donweather]

Yep, it's certainly looking like a sustained period of fun swell on the cards (and damn nice looking winds) for us SE Qlders coming up!!!

[oldman]

Winter - 6 days old. 5 out of 6 days pretty much pumping with the other day (today) more then serviceable.

Some serious possibilities brewing for later this week and early next week.

Best start to winter ever.

If Carroll was here he would be telling me to shut up.

nyah nyah.

[surferliam]

Possible new swell on the way for next weekend and beyond for us SEQLDers? still a long way out but something to possibly look forward to.

[Donweather]

Possible new swell on the way for next weekend and beyond for us SEQLDers? still a long way out but something to possibly look forward to.

Are you talking short range local windswell crap or something else further out on the horizon?

If the long range EC charts come off we may see some E/SE groundswell sneak over the top of that sheep shaggin isle late next week (arriving in SE Qld late next weekend) but to be honest, I'm not holding my breath for it as in the past, these lows out to the NE of NZ have generally not deepened until they sneak behind the swell shadow of NZ.....just like GFS is currently forecasting at the end of it's 180hr runs!!!

But, without that, we've got feck all to hang our hats on....unless you like surfing locally generated, weak windswell (with onshore winds to boot).

[Donweather]

Finally, GFS is now on board with the other models. Good news is, swell forecast is on the up. Bad news is, it's just fecked my open beaches session this weekend (with winds looking unfavourable). Crowds will be horredously thick on the points given our long flat spell!!!

[ajohnsen]

Hey Don, what's your call for next week in Sydney? We talking good size but SE winds? I'm taking two weeks off and every time I take holidays it's either perfect conditions and no swell, or E/SE winds and swell up the yahzoo.

[Donweather]

AJ, I'd have to say, you're looking pretty damn fecking good at the moment. If that low stalls off the top of NZ as currently progged by most models, then you could have some damn fine looking E'ly groundswell (peaking at 4-5ft+ towards the middle of next week) with potentially some good looking offshore winds, tending more SW/S into the middle of next week!!!

Note it won't take much change in the forecast for that low/fetch to fall behind the swell shadow of NZ so fingers crossed it doesn't move southward from the latest forecast.

[ajohnsen]

Sounds good - if it holds!

Thanks, Don.

[oldman]

School holidays AJ?

I'm off next week up to the Central Coast for most of it.

Could be real nice there Monday, maybe Tuesday. Westerly winds could even be quite mild if it pans out.

And then something darker and rising from the depths later in the week maybe.

[ajohnsen]

Actually, Olds, I'm taking advantage of both kids being in full-time childcare for these couple of months and gonna just enjoy two weeks off to myself. Do a bit of stuff around the house, have a coffee, surf as much as possible. My biggest fear is that the surf'll be crap for the whole two weeks - it's happened before?

If you're in Sydney for any of your hols, perhaps a surf at the Bra?

[Donweather]

My biggest fear is that the surf'll be crap for the whole two weeks

It's still looking pretty damn good from what I'm seeing, both in terms of local winds and a damn fun looking E'ly groundswell. Winds could be a wee bit strong (although offshore) mind you, so I hope you've got a board that can handle a stiff offshore on the take offs!!!

[ajohnsen]

Now Don, don't get my hopes up too high. I'm a fragile man.

[SAsurfa]

Ajohnsen,

Looks like the week will start off slow but from Wednesday onwards you'll see plenty of surf.

I think Don's overcooked the swell from the east. At this stage I wouldn't be expecting much over a very inconsistent 2ft to maybe 3ft on Wednesday (def not near 4-5ft sorry Don).

In any case there will be stronger levels of S'ly swell building on Wednesday, probably to 4-5ft at south facing beaches (may see some 6ft sets during the arvo), with Thursday and Friday holding around the same size.

So yeah looking good for a week off!

[steve shearer]

what ? Don overcook an E swell?

Wash your mouth out Craig.

[Donweather]

Ha ha....bring it on boys!!!

I agree the arrival timing of the peak of this E'ly groundswell has been pushed back to Wednesday now.

[ajohnsen]

Don and SAsurfa, can you do anything about the school holidays?

And Steve, hate to mix my threads, but I'll be squeezing in as much 'oceanic energy' as possible, but I promise to appreciate the beauty of the rifle range at Maroubra while I do.

[Donweather]

At this stage I wouldn't be expecting much over a very inconsistent 2ft to maybe 3ft on Wednesday

So does that mean that you guys aren't leaning towards the latest GFS forecast coming to fruition?