Autumn, how's it lookin'

[Scroty]

I noticed a missing topic based on previous forum patterns.

Long range, but next weeks possible weather forecast looks like giving hope to us Sydney based, wave starved hordes. Let's hype on it now before the models change.

[oldman]

The old frother DonW used to start these, being a dedicated weather watcher.

Been a bit of a dry spell of late for Sydney siders, just an occasional bump, but some other parts have been getting some nice waves, nothing big, but nice.

Watching to see if the swell picks up today as per forecasts. Next week does look some chance although not really lining up for Sydney at the moment from what I can see.

Waiting for the cooler days of autumn to kick in with some different weather systems.

[Skipper]

There appears to be potential for a low developing in the Tasman, if the current inland trough tracks over and intensifies. Could it be the 'big one' (since May 74's) that's been slated for a while?

[oldman]

Models I have looked at seem to have the low forming over to our south west and never really moving offshore to bring us the swell.

It may do so out of the current forecast window, but the best for us looks like a middling east to nor east swell next week.

Will have to keep my eye on it as there is plenty of energy there, and it is an unusual pattern, but not lining up for east coast so well, last I looked anyway.

[WANDERER]

looks like there is some possibility for the early tomorrow, though I can't seem to get a clear picture of what the wind is going to be, BOM forecast is pretty clear about it staying North to Northeasterly, but some other sites are indicating west to norwesterly early until about 10-11ish am.
Trying to decide whether to drive some hours away or to stay local in Sydneys northside...

[Scroty]

And now the weekend has a pulse forecast. The 3-5 day models are changing pretty fast at the moment. I'm having real trouble knowing when to prepare the wife for a leave pass request in this environment.

[oldman]

Winds looked pretty good out there Wands.

Did you go out??

[bumfluff]

Donweather, whats the go with this swell forecast for this coming weekend for SE qld? Reckon it's gonna happen? So far its looking like a repeat of that epic day back in January..

[Trev]

Donweather, whats the go with this swell forecast for this coming weekend for SE qld? Reckon it's gonna happen? So far its looking like a repeat of that epic day back in January..

Don's obviously still recuperating from his OS trip.
I'll send him a text.

[Donweather]

Thanks Trev. I'm back from my OS trip and going through my 13Gb of footage and pics at the moment. I'm also stepping back from the forums hence you won't see me on here a lot.

Anyway, back on topic and this weekend looks good for the points with a solid and powerful SE groundswell, peaking Friday, and slowly waning on Saturday, Sunday and even some dregs leftover on Monday morning. This is all from a low pressure system retrrograding westwards across the northern flank of a high pressure system throughout today and tomorrow off the west coast of NZ. So I'd be thinking the SC points should see an inconsistent 4-5ft+ (taking into account the SE swell direction) on Friday with the Goldy points seeing 4-6ft depending on their exposure to the SE swell direction.

For me, I'm getting much much more excited about the follow up system in the Tasman (behind this current fetch described above). Did I hear someone say some good sized E/SE'ly groundswell and offshore winds (possibly all day)!!

[bumfluff]

Thanks Trev and Don... Sounds promising!

[oldman]

Donweather, whats the go with this swell forecast for this coming weekend for SE qld? Reckon it's gonna happen? So far its looking like a repeat of that epic day back in January..

Weekend good. Monday andTuesday off the freaking richter, even in Qld.

[bumfluff]

Weekend good. Monday andTuesday off the freaking richter, even in Qld.

Really? So it's going to pick up even more after Sunday? How big are we talking?

[oldman]

On current charts -

There is some serously big stuff brewing out there bumfluff, not too far away from SE qld on an active sea state, that looks like a fairly large near-cyclonic about 500 to 1000kms off the coast around Sunday night/Monday morning.

My guess is that Monday will see the biggest of it for you, maybe Monday Tuesday peak down in Sydney.

It's big, it's ugly, and it's on its way to your front door.

Too big for me I'm afraid.

[bumfluff]

On current charts -

There is some serously big stuff brewing out there bumfluff, not too far away from SE qld on an active sea state, that looks like a fairly large near-cyclonic about 500 to 1000kms off the coast around Sunday night/Monday morning.

My guess is that Monday will see the biggest of it for you, maybe Monday Tuesday peak down in Sydney.

It's big, it's ugly, and it's on its way to your front door.

Too big for me I'm afraid.

For heavens sakes man, talk to me in a language the laymen can understand.

The IGGY scale

[Trev]

On current charts -

There is some serously big stuff brewing out there bumfluff, not too far away from SE qld on an active sea state, that looks like a fairly large near-cyclonic about 500 to 1000kms off the coast around Sunday night/Monday morning.

My guess is that Monday will see the biggest of it for you, maybe Monday Tuesday peak down in Sydney.

It's big, it's ugly, and it's on its way to your front door.

Too big for me I'm afraid.

For heavens sakes man, talk to me in a language the laymen can understand.

The IGGY scale

Probably too big for me, too.
I'll take the camera out to the point.

[Donweather]

For you Sunny Coast guys you have to remember the swell direction. For the swell arriving Friday and maintaining that size on Saturday, it's from the SE and winds will also be from the S/SE so this will push surfable options to the protected points, where due to the SE swell direction the surf heights will be smaller than on the open exposed beaches. So I'm still going with my size predictions as per above.

Monday/Tuesday at this stage looks smaller than this Friday/Saturday from what I'm seeing on the charts. That's not to say it's not an impressive low pressure system in the Tasman this weekend, just the fact that the fetch length and duration (over the same stretch of ocean) is much less than what is currently being brewed out off the west coast of NZ as we speak (and hence generating the swell coming this Friday/Saturday). But the key for Monday/Tuesday is that winds at this stage are looking sensational and hence much more surfing location options will be on the cards and hence open beaches should see something in the 4-5ft+ class on Monday/Tuesday from what I'm currently seeing. And if all the planets align we could well have all day offshores come Monday/Tuesday.

That's my 2 cents worth anyway.

[bumfluff]

Thanks Don! Not as big as I was hoping (as a spectator) but gonna be pretty epic weekend no less..

That 6 - 8 foot day back in January at Kirra has ruined me...