Summer. How's it lookin?

[diggerdickson]

Hey don, people are talking about a cyclone coming just after australia day, any information on this mate, I havent had a chance to check it out and was wondering if you had heard anything about this.

That weatherman is a fecking idiot. He posted a GFS map that was +368hrs away!!! I couldn't stop laughing at the ridiculous maps he was putting up and he then quoted a 30-40% chance of that chart coming off. What a tool. The chances of the chart that the dickhead weather man put up coming off would not be 30-40%. In fact it wouldn't even be 3-4%. In fact if those charts were progging a cyclone that far out, I'd put money on it that there wasn't going to be one off SE Qld on 28 Jan....and I'd be putting a lot of money on it!!! Media hype yet again and scare mongering.[/quote

mmm, that bloke should read the book how to destroy your credibilty in your work place in one easy step

[SAsurfa]

Here's the chart...



Idiot!

[Donweather]

Bugger me there's some serious swell in the water now, and not too far off my hand calcs earlier in the week either.

3.5m @ 14sec+ with Hmax above 6m!!!!

Can someone please tell me why there's such a huge difference between the GC wave buoys and the Mooloolaba wave buoy? This swell was created some reasonable distance offshore and hence radial spreading should mean there's bugger all difference between the wave buoy readings along SE Qld?

[Quangers]

Lucky buggers. There was nought down south nsw this morning (2-3 ft, shouldn't whinge it is summer).
Have to work the next few days too.

[oldman]

Interesting.

Today's pics on the realsurf website show a few shots which they call 3 -4 foot, which I think look more like 2-3 foot on the iggy scale.

Easily twice that on the central coast today. 3 to 4 (Iggy) from fairly early and built through most of the day. Some a fair bit bigger than that.

Considering that north narrabeen is supposed to be a swell magnet, looks like they didn't get as much of the swell as I saw up here. Would be interested to hear what other people were seeing on Sydney beaches today.

[oldman]

Today's pics of north narra a bit more like what we are getting up here.

Whereas yesterday had regular sets and good size, today has just maxed out and nowhere in my vicinity is surfable from what I can tell. Out of control.

Maybe will calm down a bit as the afternoon wears on and the tides change.

[SAsurfa]

What size would you put on it?

[oldman]

First thing I saw this morning. 10 wave set, most of them double overhead plus.

Top of the tide - disorganised mess, rips everywhere and hard to gauge - just a mess.

Tide dropping - swell cleans up a bit and loses a bit of size - back to 4 foot solid.

Rising tide in the evening - I watch a 11 wave set hit lakes beach, 9 of them double overhead, last two just 4' remnants.

Cabbage Tree Bay glassing off and lines to the horizon with the tide. Double overhead plus at bommie and big bommie. A few on it.

Very tide dependent. Expecting it to drop off tomorrow, but that's what I thought about today.

So in a nutshell, 6' to 4' to 6' again, dependent on tide.

These beaches/bommies all open to the east nor east.

[Donweather]

Yes, just got very similar reports from a mate up the SC. Generally around the 4ft mark and every so often a 6ft clean up set with some solid juice would come through. Would never have called that looking at the SC wave buoys this afternoon.

GC wave buoys have levelled off and yet Byron wave buoy has taken a nose dive?

Go figure??

[diggerdickson]

been checking my locals for the last few days waiting for it to clean up and a certian point to break, trying to aviod noosa, been watching the swell and a final check at 6.00 and you would swear that the swell is totally dissapearing, weird

[Donweather]

I note that GFS is progging a fairly decent tropical storm to brew out east of Fiji later this weekend and into early next week as it tracks southwards, compressing up against a high well to the east of New Zealand in the process.

And latest EC model is starting to come on board with some tropical developments out there later this weekend and into early next week also. Doesn't appear to have the intensity of the GFS system, but then that's got to be expected as nothing usually does have the same intensity of tropical systems in the long range GFS.

Very nice westwards propagation of the storm certainly looks the goods for swell production that's for sure.

The very scary part is that both EC and GFS have this same storm/cyclone predicted to cross the Qld coastline around Saturday/Sunday 29th/30th!!!

Will it be WILMA?

[carvin marvin]

As long as it's not a FRED or BARNEY.

Interesting you mention the possibility of a cyclone crossing the Queensland coastline.
I was listening to an interview on ABC radios Rural Report with Haydon Walker about his weather predictions based on sun spot activity and his call was for 4 cyclones to cross the coastline in the next few months.
He said the first one should be around Australia Day which corresponds with what the Fleet Numerical map is forecasting.
He then said 2 in February and one in March.

Regarding La Nina.
Several years ago someone told me that when the weather patterns switch over from El Nino to La Nina it would be a very dramatic change.
I wonder if the worst is not yet over.
Here on the Northern Rivers we had the mildest spring in the 23 years I have lived here, most of the time it was overcast and mild and showery, we just did not get the hot dry 35 degree days at the beginning of November that bring the Red belly black snakes out to mate.
All the farmers that I talk to have been saying for months that we are in for a very wet wet season.
Fortunately the recent storm that hit the Brisbane area missed the Tweed, Lismore, Kyogle and Ballina Shires, we got about 200mm of rain over a few days, about 80mm fell in one night. Usually those systems move south and we cop it but that system moved southwest and dumped rain more to the west southwest on the ranges which then flood Grafton.
Another example was the dramatic snow season, June and July bugger all snow falls then August record snow falls for the whole month.

[Donweather]

I was listening to an interview on ABC radios Rural Report with Haydon Walker about his weather predictions based on sun spot activity and his call was for 4 cyclones to cross the coastline in the next few months.
He said the first one should be around Australia Day which corresponds with what the Fleet Numerical map is forecasting.
He then said 2 in February and one in March.

I am extremely scepticle about Mr Walker's predictions. They are like horoscopes.....so vague you can read anything you want into them.

For instance "around Australia day"....is that "on Australia day"....within "1 week either side of Australia day"...."within one month of Australia day"???

As for another 2 cyclones in February and one in March....are the 2 in february in addition to the one "around Australia Day"?

And if you want my opinion, La Nina appears to kinda somewhat delay the seasons in my opinion. ie the typical Spring weather that we get appeared to be delayed until say November. Summer hasn't really kicked in yet either, and so me thinks La Nina could well bring more cyclones towards the end of the cyclone season (ie me thinks more in March and perhaps even April). Just my gut feel from recent observations....no real science like "sun spot reading".

[Donweather]

are you talking south coast Or sunshine coast?

Sunny Coast.

[oldman]

I wonder if the worst is not yet over.

Considering that cyclone season off qld coast is usually later in summer, I would be surprised if some parts of qld don't get more intense weather in the next 6 - 8 weeks. I wouldn't be doing much more than cleaning up and clearing out, and then probably moving to Aunt Mabel's house in Perth for a few months.

It could very well get worse before it gets better.

are you talking south coast Or sunshine coast?

Guard, I was on the south coast for a week pre cyclone but I've been at the northern end of the central coast in a spot that sticks out further east than anywhere in the immediate vicinity.

[Quangers]

Hopefully a taste of what to expect tomorrow and Saturday (East coast) - from the South Island in UnZud.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2011/01/20/3117701.htm
(even though it is on the wrong coast-maybe the same swell we'll getting - Don )

[Donweather]

And TC Wilma is born!!

And as much as I hate to say it, GFS certainly looks the outlier at present with respect to tracking and intensity (in the medium-long term).

[diggerdickson]

Just been checking the bom on the new cyclone off queensland, that looks like it could provide the goods next week don, wadda you reckon