Summer. How's it lookin?

[Donweather]

Yep, granted something's gonna happen early-mid next week, but as for size and swell direction (which will have a massive impact on locations north of Byron) it's still not a done deal as far as I'm concerned.

I see one particular forecast is calling for 5ft of south swell in SE Qld mid next week..............

Wednesday in Sydney looks better as the swell swings more true S'ly, as opposed to being west of south on Tuesday. That would also indicate that Thursday in SE Qld looks to be the better day too, cause before this, the swell (S/SW) will be marching straight by.

[SAsurfa]

Dunno about that Don, winds look dicey Wednesday, while Tuesday is likely to see a straight W'ly (W/NW) at some spots before tending SE/NE during the a'noon.

And what do you mean True S'ly swell. Tuesday morning will be true S'ly, you can't get S/SW swells in Sydney.. that's buoyweather and magic seaweed talk

[Donweather]

Dunno about that Don, winds look dicey Wednesday, while Tuesday is likely to see a straight W'ly (W/NW) at some spots before tending SE/NE during the a'noon.

To be honest Craig I hadn't even looked at local synoptic winds...was merely looking at the swell.

And what do you mean True S'ly swell. Tuesday morning will be true S'ly, you can't get S/SW swells in Sydney.. that's buoyweather and magic seaweed talk

And that's exactly my point Craig. The majority of the fetch (and hence biggest component of the ensuing swell) is west of south (ie heading away from the coast), hence I'm not getting that excited about this onion ring, particularly in SE Qld as it'll be marching straight past Cape Byron.

For SE Qld, we certainly do much better off the backside of the peak of these Tasman low swell events, when the swell direction is actually that little bit east of south. Hence I'm thinking Thursday in SE Qld will be better.

Having said all of that though, I've just checked the latest 00z GFS run and it's looking a little better aligned with the east coast. Only time will tell.

[Donweather]

I see most models have significantly downgraded the onion rings now!!

[miiichael]

I see most models have significantly downgraded the onion rings now!!

whats your opinion on, whether we will get some waves on the east coast or not?

[Donweather]

whats your opinion on, whether we will get some waves on the east coast or not?

Whereabouts on the east coast? Locations north of Byron won't see much if anything at all from this system. NSW should see something but certainly nothing as big as was forecast on Friday. I'd be thinking south facing beaches around the Sydney region should see something around 4ft on Tuesday, with perhaps the odd 5ft set.

[miiichael]

whats your opinion on, whether we will get some waves on the east coast or not?

Whereabouts on the east coast?

Sydney To South Coast NSW

[SAsurfa]

IMO the South Coast will be a little hit and miss due to the swell being created nearly right off its doorstep resulting in a lower period swell and smaller peak in size than Sydney and the Central Coast/Newcastle.

Don I think your call of 4ft to maybe 5ft is an undercall. I reckon it will be around 5-6ft early on Tuesday, but we'll see a noticeable drop during the afternoon, even maybe down to 3-4ft.

Miiichael, I'd aim around Sydney for a surf or the Central Coast.

[Donweather]

Don I think your call of 4ft to maybe 5ft is an undercall. I reckon it will be around 5-6ft early on Tuesday, but we'll see a noticeable drop during the afternoon, even maybe down to 3-4ft.

Perhaps Craig.....you know the Sydney region better than I do in a S'ly swell, but for me the fetch still looks to have too much west of south in it for my liking and hence I reckon it'll lose a lot of energy to get back into the coast (on Tuesday).

Models are still a little undecided on the deepening of this system anyway, so it's still a little up in the air from where I'm sitting.

BTW - My call was at south facing beaches, not offshore reefs/bombies.

[Topher]

Late sesh in sydney tomorrow. Any chance?

[Donweather]

If those winds behave, I reckon SE Qld/Nth NSW might see something sneak under the radar on Friday morning at south facing beaches, particularly at south facing beaches south of Byron!!!

Shame I'll be as hungover as a bastard on Friday morning!!!

[Donweather]

Now this is looking much better aligned for the east coast!!

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... Bas274.png

[Quangers]

Now this is looking much better aligned for the east coast!!

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... Bas274.png

Where's that taken from? Will we see any down south NSW?
(Geez mate, you're all over it- you should turn pro)

[Donweather]

Where's that taken from? Will we see any down south NSW?
(Geez mate, you're all over it- you should turn pro)

ASCAT website....25km image resolution

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... TData.php/

I did actually used to do surf forecasting for Swellnet for SE Qld, but unfortunately time committments with my day job meant I had to give it away.

[Quangers]

Where's that taken from? Will we see any down south NSW?
(Geez mate, you're all over it- you should turn pro)

ASCAT website....25km image resolution

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... TData.php/

I did actually used to do surf forecasting for Swellnet for SE Qld, but unfortunately time committments with my day job meant I had to give it away.

Does that mean that Shearer's your understudy???
Cheers for the link. Shitte I hope we'll see some good swell downn south NSW (I missed today due to work)

[Donweather]

Does that mean that Shearer's your understudy???

LOL.....not quite. Shearer knows his sh1t and was surf forecasting long before I came along.

Shitte I hope we'll see some good swell downn south NSW (I missed today due to work)

Yeah, I reckon you'll see something down that way tomorrow and even some leftovers come Thursday morning.

[oldman]

Now this is looking much better aligned for the east coast!!

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... Bas274.png

Well I can't read that DonW, as there is no land mass on it, but I'll take your word for it.

Strangely, yesterday delivered long period but not as big as expected, more like 3-4 ft, and nowhere near the expected "up to 6", but with the sou-wester staying for most of the day it was pretty pristine.

Now the swell appears to have all but disappeared. Possibility of another burst tomorrow perhaps, but the actual swell has not aligned with even the 6 to 12 hour forecasts.

A strange one.

Perhaps lucky this one didn't come through during the Sydney to Hobart. On the other hand, I hope another one comes through for the Sydney to Hobart.

[SAsurfa]

9 times out of ten these swells come in larger than expected, but this one missed..

Here's an article on the event..
http://www.swellnet.com.au/news/1025-th ... n-analysis

The winds looked to have too much west in them, and this image


Shows that although winds were strong, they were too west and the low moved away to the south-east too quickly.

Olds, it looks as if today's secondary pulse is missing Sydney and hitting Newcastle, most likely due to the period of the swell steering it away from the Sydney region. This is backed up by the reports with 1-1.5ft waves in Sydney and 3-4ft surf up at Newy, also the Mid-North-Coast is picking up more than us.

This one is locked in the memory bank and will be recalled on in the future