Spring. How's it lookin?

[alakaboo]

di99er, you got your G back!

Cheers DonW. I suspected as much!
hopefully it'll be getting round enough for some shelter from the wind.
I'll take a few boards over to cover a range of options, and to counter the sweep. and make me less attractive to noahs...

[diggerdickson]

di99er, you got your G back!

Cheers DonW. I suspected as much!
hopefully it'll be getting round enough for some shelter from the wind.
I'll take a few boards over to cover a range of options, and to counter the sweep. and make me less attractive to noahs...

not yet, Im posting from work

[Donweather]

Latest Weekly Tropical Note discussing MJO.

Strong MJO in Australian region
In the last few days, we have observed the rapid intensification of an active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the Maritime Continent region, where warm SSTs are assisting the process.

The latest analysis suggests that the current MJO event is the strongest observed in the Maritime Continent since February 1985. This event is already contributing to a significant increase in rainfall across northern Australia, and is expected to continue for some days yet.

Guidance surveyed by the Bureau suggests the MJO will continue to move east, out of Australian longitudes over the next two weeks. Models then predict the MJO event to weaken in the western Pacific. History shows that at this time of year, north Australian rainfall typically remains above average, even when the MJO moves into the western Pacific.

There is increased potential for Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea over the next week or two, as the northern hemisphere monsoon continues to migrate southwards. The risk of TC formation in the Australian region is still considered low, as it is still very early in the season for tropical cyclone development in this region.

Longer term, based on the standard movement of the MJO, we would be looking towards the second half of November for the next burst of active weather to return to Australian longitudes.

Let's see what pans out in the next two weeks, and even more so in the second half of November, when she'll be starting to prime the warmer SSTs up north.

[Donweather]

I see the long range EC is progging the first TC of the Southern Hemi spring/summer. Not likely to effect any surf on the east coast of Oz mind you, but certainly nice to see models painting the picture this early in the season.

Personally I think it's still too early in the season, even with a La Nina.

[oldman]

Some solid waves over the weekend, particularly Saturday.

Best Spring ever!

[Cookie]

Yeah, I'm struggling to remember a Spring that could come close to this one.

My local was pretty close to all time this weekend, particularly on Saturday on the low tide as the swell hit. Still throwing up lots of barrels this right now too. Lucky the surf reporters only got to see the crappy conditions first thing in the morning at high-tide and wrote it off

[Donweather]

Models are certainly sniffing around at some tropical activity on either side (and including over) of the continent in about 7-9 days time.

Watch this space I'd say!!!

[mustkillmulloway]

keep ya nose to the ground

if your lookin at wat i'm looking at

it's got a huge speculation wriiten all over it :?

[mustkillmulloway]

p.s what u think about the 15 cyclone forecast for qld thats anna getting her face in the paper over

i know several resorts now with canceled booking off the claim ( great work anna...tourisn qld loves this shit coming onto there peak period )

do u view it as irresponsiable scare mongraling

if the satated cyclones don't come and bussiness has suffered in lieu the b/s forecasts

can u see legal action being taken against said forecasters

i know a lot pissed off people in hospitality between here and cairns...talking up the cyclone threat is going send them to the wall...they needed a big xmas crowd

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2008/s2455379.htm

[oldman]

The success of the mining industry, and consequently the high Australian dollar, is probably the real reason that people have been cancelling their bookings, I would imagine.

[Donweather]

Looking damn good in the long range forecast!!

http://www.surfphotos.com.au/on-the-horizon

[jimmy]

Any joy for us around Sydney way Don?

[Donweather]

Any joy for us around Sydney way Don?

Well, and just like that GFS has wound back the intensity of the fetch in the Coral Sea/Tropical South Pacific this weekend and pushed the low/high combo well out of our great swell circle south east of NZ.......cnut!!!

Anyway, in answer to your question Jimmy, based on the crappy 00z GFS run, Sydney should see a better pulse of I'd say 2-3ft E/NE swell early-mid next week.

EC's still showing the goods mind you, so there's still some hope left in these bones for something a little larger!!!

[Donweather]

First tropical cyclone in the southern hemi this season has been born and she's showing some nice signs of convection out in the Tropical Indian Ocean too!!!

http://en.allmetsat.com/images/met5_cimss_irc.php

[diggerdickson]

oh thats nice news don, very very nice.

[Donweather]

Even better news Digger is that we should have swell for at least the next 5-6 days, with even Fong's local point seeing some action come early-mid next week!!

Speaking of locals, anyone know what Trev's doing? He's been rather quiet on here for some time now??

[Donweather]

For those weekend warriors in SE Qld here tis my thoughts.

http://www.surfphotos.com.au/weekend-su ... r-30th31st

[mustkillmulloway]

Even better news Digger is that we should have swell for at least the next 5-6 days, with even Fong's local point seeing some action come early-mid next week!!

??

....but what about that other coastline

p.s trevs travelin....lucky bugger

p.s love ya weekend roundups....short and accurate...no b/s padding out the word count

love the photos on that site too...