where have all you predictors gone

[Nick Carroll]

...now there's been a TC off the back of Fiji and another in the offing.

Let us hear how youse all think early autumn is shaping up on the Australian east coast.

Sad to say I believe it will be Shit. June/July on the other hand will be off the hook.

OK your turn shearer, donw, barsatrdos, oldman etc

[steve shearer]

Sad to say I believe it will be Shit.

Is this some kind of Monday wind-up Carroll?

Hows about a few cogent reasons for this POV.

With an ultra active SPCZ, insanely warm waters of the SE of Aus, and Nino transition likely I can't see anything other than a continuation of Feb's active pattern.

[Donweather]

...now there's been a TC off the back of Fiji and another in the offing.

Let us hear how youse all think early autumn is shaping up on the Australian east coast.

Sad to say I believe it will be Shit. June/July on the other hand will be off the hook.

OK your turn shearer, donw, barsatrdos, oldman etc

Sorry Nick, I've been away the last 2 weeks (see other thread in travel section).

Curious as to why you think Autumn's going to be shit, or is this you're sarcasm coming out again?

To tell you the truth I haven't been looking at the charts very closely at all since returning last Friday.......just been seriously comtemplating life and why we need this work shit when others can lead such simple and fulfilling lives with such few materialistic possesions (I always get like this when returning home from a 3rd world country)

[oldman]

Nick, I just wish I was clever enough to be able to work out whether that substantial TC east of Fiji is going to be sending any swell this way.

This distances must be pretty substantial but the energy is well directed at the moment and forecast to weaken but head in our direction. Surely it would reach DonW and friends up in qld, but perhaps getting down to Sydney is just too much to ask for. I'll be looking to do a bit of hindcasting on this one.

And I also was suspecting that the giant low down in Antarctica would be sending up some genuine long range ground swell which would be hitting us soon, but I haven't seen the beach today and can't tell. Not huge, but I thought it would register something, while swellnet seemed to virtually discount it as of last Wednesday evening when I checked their site.

The feeling in my bones, current February weather has seen the best rainfalls across inland oz for many a year, meaning different weather patterns to what we have seen of recent years. All this talk of high moisture levels tends to make me think we will see an unusual autumn weather wise, but still highly favourable for surf. There seems to be a lot of energy out there.

Last autumn was a very good one by my recollection, particularly the school holidays which saw me miss many a swell due to family commitments.

I'm forecasting mid-size but consistent surf through this autumn, a couple of big early winter swells in the normally quiet June period before a July full of sweet nothing, pretty much just to be different from you.

Can't tell if your forecasts of events months out is based on a sixth sense, long range forecasting a la Mr Lennox of yore, or just taking the piss to see if you can draw a comment out of us. Either way, doesn't matter,

unless you do have a crystal ball!

[brendo]

how the fark can anyone predict whats gunna happen in 2 months, when they missed this mornings swell. they called 2ft, rising in arvo....was a peak in swell at 7am, with solid 6ft sets. this arvo is 3ft. but if u kept an eye on the buoy data last night, then u would of known about this mornins surprise god i love it when they get it wrong...fark all people about after yesterdays dribblers

[oldman]

how the fark can anyone predict whats gunna happen in 2 months, when they missed this mornings swell. they called 2ft, rising in arvo....was a peak in swell at 7am, with solid 6ft sets. this arvo is 3ft. but if u kept an eye on the buoy data last night, then u would of known about this mornins surprise god i love it when they get it wrong...fark all people about after yesterdays dribblers

Interesting brendo, was that from the south and true ground swell or more locally generated?

If longer period ground swell it would have been from that deep antarctic low methinks. Did swellnet change their forecast for that? Your post suggests no.

How can we predict 2 months out? It requires a reading of the runes and how much the arthritis is playing up.

[Nick Carroll]

oldman that TC is heading toward us, it's got a super strong ENE wind fetch attached to it, and I bet ya Friday and Saturday see a bit of a hit from it.

V long range sees another one a few days after it.

Why, you ask me why will early autumn beyond this next 2wk flurry turn to crap? well that is incredibly easy to answer.

a) we've all been vaguely expecting it to be really fcuken good -- always a bad sign
b) TCs in a dying El Nino tend to form in mid-Pacific, not in the Holy Gap between Fiji and NZ. These next couple are anomalies, coming back at us the way they are. From then on they're gonna start around the Cook Islands and sputter off to the south, giving the NZ east coast a bit of something ...but not us.
c) At the same time I just bet we see a re-forming of that dead hand of a Tasman high that tortured us throughout Nov-Dec with its woeful windlessness and dried-out continental heat.

That'll ruin our lives until the great early winter breakdown and a series of explosive ECLs which will feed off warm water and cold Antarctic air. And then there'll be some kick arse waves.

brendo and oldbloke I reckon there were two swells this morning, one from the deep antarctic low and one from closer range and more sloped-off south angled. The deep one was the part that looked easterly-ish.

[steve shearer]

oldman that TC is heading toward us, it's got a super strong ENE wind fetch attached to it, and I bet ya Friday and Saturday see a bit of a
c) At the same time I just bet we see a re-forming of that dead hand of a Tasman high that tortured us throughout Nov-Dec with its woeful windlessness and dried-out continental heat.

Well I beg to differ Mr Carroll.

Dying Nino's (and this one is far from dead by the way....check the latest WWB on the back of the latest MJO surge) also tend to see a late flurry in the Coral Sea.
Have you already forgotten Larry and then it's close sibling Wati?

And then the mega south that followed Wati?

There's alot of convergence progged off the NTC of QLD and I wouldn't be surprised to see another TC or tropical low come barrelling down from that region towards the end of next week.

With the amount of moisture now in play through inland NSW and QLD i'll be very surprised if we return to the Nino-hell of early summer.

There's just too much latent instability for that to happen.

[brendo]

agree nick, 2 swells would of explained why the swell was quite peaky, instead of the usual long lined closeouts from a solid south swell.

i was just lookin at the swellnet reports for the day, funny that they were all along a similar line. ie: good waves everywhere, and next to no one in the water. can we assume all the guys in the water were a mixture ofguys that go for an early no matter what , and guys that follow the charts and current buoy data themselves, instead of being lazy clueless carnts that rely on internet forecasts to plan their surfing days?
and they argue the reports/cams dont contribute to crowds.....

if u missed the surf today cause your one of those carnts above.....suck a d.ick

[oldman]

oldman that TC is heading toward us

Noted, seems to lose energy the closer it gets, but the directional set-up is good for pretty much all the east coast.

brendo and oldbloke I reckon there were two swells this morning, one from the deep antarctic low and one from closer range and more sloped-off south angled. The deep one was the part that looked easterly-ish.

Makes sense given the charts. Thanks NC, helps fill in the missing data.

ie: good waves everywhere, and next to no one in the water. can we assume all the guys in the water were a mixture ofguys that go for an early no matter what , and guys that follow the charts and current buoy data themselves, instead of being lazy clueless carnts that rely on internet forecasts to plan their surfing days?

Who can tell brendo. I'm thinking of changing my work days so I get mondays off. Seems like mondays and tuesdays are the best days of the week for surfing in Sydney these days. Thursdays and Fridays are often weekend-like crowds round these parts.

Current bouy data, damn that sounds like cheating to me!

Mustn't be a soul forecaster!

[Donweather]

Dying Nino's (and this one is far from dead by the way....check the latest WWB on the back of the latest MJO surge) also tend to see a late flurry in the Coral Sea.
Have you already forgotten Larry and then it's close sibling Wati?

And then the mega south that followed Wati?

There's alot of convergence progged off the NTC of QLD and I wouldn't be surprised to see another TC or tropical low come barrelling down from that region towards the end of next week.

With the amount of moisture now in play through inland NSW and QLD i'll be very surprised if we return to the Nino-hell of early summer.

There's just too much latent instability for that to happen.

I'm tending to agree with Mr Shearer on this one. Charts are aligning quite nicely for some tropical activity closer to home next week. Not saying I'm wanting this as I much prefer the South Pacific set ups as they don't bring the storm winds with them.....just the well aligned long lines from the east......music to any SE Qld surfer......now if only I could guarantee the crowds would be as minimal as I got them the last two weeks away, then I'd be as happy as a pig in shit!!!

[oldman]

Interesting look development for early next week, just checking on the one model so far.

ECL pretty much in prime position to explode over the east coast. What are the other models suggesting?

Donw, that works alright for some of your breaks up that way doesn't it?

[Donweather]

Oldman, I think you're referring to the GFS model showing a Tasman low. Still someway to go before this is a done deal. Check out the EC model. Has the low over land and hence nothing of significance to generate swell for anyone.

I still prefer to look east rather than over my shoulder to the south.

[oldman]

Thanks Donw.

I was listening to ABC news and they referred to the divergence in the models.

Will check a few out.

I know you prefer the east, preferably from a distance as well I imagine, but a nice south swell can tide you over in between times. New Zealand may be getting in the way, again.

[Donweather]

New Zealand may be getting in the way, again.

For you guys perhaps, but not the one I'm looking at

[oldman]

I was wondering about that. It may be pretty close, that northern arm will block a fair way up the coast, depending very acutely where it ends up forming.

Good luck with it.

[Donweather]

Oldman, I'm looking a little further afield than just across the Tasman!!!

[Donweather]

Autumn is such a great time of year and fair to say, there's no shortage of swell on the way for SE Qld. Anyone smell some tropical action closer to home come the end of next week!!!