Drought breaker?

[Beanpole]

Glad to see some revision re: swell size on Coastalwatch.
How big does it have to be for the queenscliff bombie to break anyway?
You could see all those outer reefs breaking off long reef and further north from the bower.
Saw plenty of punters rocking down for their 3 to 6' surf with a fish under the arm at bondi and bronte.

[Larry]

yesterday

[steve shearer]

Hi TC Neville....now what odds for Olga to be named today.

Double jeopardy.

Need that steering ridge to develop.

[Beanpole]

yesterday

Thanks for pointing that out lazza. Sorry for reflecting on the accuracy of yesterdays forecasting in weather and surf forecasting.

[Donweather]

Need that steering ridge to develop.

Feck I'm praying for this Steve. I don't want anything tropical within cooeee of up there in about 10 days time.

Models are really struggling with these ones at the moment aren't they, so I can't rely on them at all for anything more than about 24-48hrs.

[Nick Carroll]

^^^jeez you're a fcuken rubberneck.

[daryl]

yesterday

Thanks for pointing that out lazza. Sorry for reflecting on the accuracy of yesterdays forecasting in weather and surf forecasting.

day before yesterday

[Nick Carroll]

so...what of this immense easterly fetch forming out past NZ in a few days' time and lasting into February.

think I might pay Noosa Heads a visit. don't they say that gets good in a 6'+ easterly groundswell.

[oldman]

I was looking at some not particularlay reliable forecast charts going out to later this week and there was a significant huge width and fetch of nor easter winds which seemed to be lasting for days, with a possible cyclone at the generation site, some 5000 kms nor east of brissie (my rough guesstimate)

It had to travel a long way after the fetch broke down, but it might have been building for over 5000 kms as well.

If it comes off, would that reach the qld beaches or just not enough strength in it to carry the distance.

Nick's comments made me think he was talking about the same thing.

Need donW to do some calcs.

[Donweather]

Need donW to do some calcs.

Sorry guys, would love to run some numbers and look into it in more detail, but my full attention is on the North Pacific now as that's where I'll be this time next week.

Bloody typical though.....I leave OS for a Surfari and Huey turns the tap on back home.....although I know for sure the crowds where I'll be will be a zillenth of what Nick will be getting at Noosa!!!!

I'm sure Steve is already onto this and he'll enlighten us further in his forecast this afternoon.

[Donweather]

don't they say that gets good in a 6'+ easterly groundswell.

I can't see anything on the charts that's gonna deliver that swell in at least the next week+, Nick? Are you looking further out in time in the model runs?.....Like extended EC....that could certainly deliver something worthwhile?

[steve shearer]

Modeles have been hinting at this fetch to develop for a while now and like the yellow brick road it seems to just keep disappearing over the near horizon........it is solidifiying somewhat though.
Fly in the ointment is a deepening trough off the North Island which seems to drag the fetch alignment into the swell shadow of the North island......is it time to say nuke the North Island yet?
Would be very surprised if this initial incarnation delivered anything like 6ft Noosa though.
Need a fcuking cyclone hovering off Double Island Point for that kind of malarkey.

[SAsurfa]

Looked at latest EC

[Donweather]

I presume you're talking about the swell production out to the E/NE of NZ, Craig and not the insane flooding that Central Qld would incur if that EC ex TC Olga came off as progged?

And yes, the extended EC run looks insane with the storm remaining semi stationary to the E/NE of NZ, before then heading westwards and intensifying, working on an already active sea state. Now that would certainly deliver some fecking nice swell to Noosa as alluded to by Nick. Local winds though could be a write off with a moist infeed of onshore winds spoiling the party (pending ex TC Olga's movements of course).

Looks like I wont have to worry about who's gonna water my lawn whilst I'm away, that's for sure.

[Donweather]

Well Nick, it certainly is looking like you were smack on the money with your call......although I still reckon local synoptic winds are looking a bastard (pending movements of ex TC Olga).

And as Steve alluded too earlier, this swell event is gonna feck up the primed banks at the moment for sure........creating lovely storm bars, just like last year

[oldman]

At least there is some energy out there, although onshore winds seem to be with it all the way.

and not the insane flooding that Central Qld would incur if that EC ex TC Olga came off as progged?

I'm sort of hoping that the system from that progs as currently suggested, heading south and sending heavy rain right through outback queensland, nsw and even down to SA.

Don't wish to sound callous, but the only way to break the drought out in much of those lands, and restore some health to the river systems and fill the dams is for a remnant of a TC coming down through central or north oz, as per the one that created the floods in the last month or so.

Adelaide may even get some water, menindee lakes might fill up, lachlan may get genuine flows, darling may have genuine flow for months, and the soil will get some depth in the moisture content.. Farmers, get your dingies out, your cattle to high ground and hope it comes to pass.

[barstardos]

So the models are really starting to line up for next week. From Monday we will have building ENE swell for the forseeable future. Could be long lasting too, ie, weeks of swell - at last!!
Central Qld will also enjoy a drought breaker of the the original kind - flooding rain. Just what the Darling needs.

[marcus_h]

That would be fcking right, in Melbourne for work from Monday morning until Thursday night