Drought breaker?

[barstardos]

aaaah, uuuummmm - i dont want to jinx it before it can come to fruition - but has anyone seen latest run of ECMWF?
Its been 3 months and something has to give soon. If it happens anything like EC is suggesting then we here in Sydney are looking at a week or more of solid, building SE-ESE swell with fair winds. This is the first cause for optimism I have had in ages
Of course GFS still has this low forming over tas/vic and the fetch not developing in the Tasman until much later in the week.
Lets see if GFS gets on board with this Tasman low.

BTW - very pissed off today. Went for run expecting onshores and crappy swell, as I run down toward curly I saw a 3 wave set of 3 foot groundswell peel off down the line past the pool. By this stage too late to get a surf in before duty called - aaarrrgh!

[Donweather]

aaaah, uuuummmm - i dont want to jinx it before it can come to fruition - but has anyone seen latest run of ECMWF?
Its been 3 months and something has to give soon. If it happens anything like EC is suggesting then we here in Sydney are looking at a week or more of solid, building SE-ESE swell with fair winds. This is the first cause for optimism I have had in ages
Of course GFS still has this low forming over tas/vic and the fetch not developing in the Tasman until much later in the week.
Lets see if GFS gets on board with this Tasman low.

Yeah saw that one this morning. Could even deliver for SE Qld too!!! Still expecting the models to jump around a fair bit though with EC and GFS rather divergent at present as you've indicated.

BTW - very pissed off today. Went for run expecting onshores and crappy swell, as I run down toward curly I saw a 3 wave set of 3 foot groundswell peel off down the line past the pool. By this stage too late to get a surf in before duty called - aaarrrgh!

From the S/SE I take it? Probably the radial spread from the S/SE fetch off the SW tip of NZ earlier in the week, although the 3ft size in Sydney surprises me for this radial spread stuff.

Lets see if my theory for tomorrow comes to fruition for you guys down there?

[BDL77]

Here's hoping barstardos. I got a surf further up the peninsula and was really surprised that it was smooth even though the wind got into it at around 6:30 and then a miracle happened - I got a wave over chest high

[SAsurfa]

BTW - very pissed off today. Went for run expecting onshores and crappy swell, as I run down toward curly I saw a 3 wave set of 3 foot groundswell peel off down the line past the pool. By this stage too late to get a surf in before duty called - aaarrrgh!

From the S/SE I take it? Probably the radial spread from the S/SE fetch off the SW tip of NZ earlier in the week, although the 3ft size in Sydney surprises me for this radial spread stuff.

Lets see if my theory for tomorrow comes to fruition for you guys down there?

That fetch was created during late Sunday, early Monday if I remember correctly and with an approximate travel time of 2days for that region, I was expecting it yesterday, although nothing above 1-2ft.

Now today's jump in swell is a bit perplexing as the S'ly winds in the wake of yesterday's change did muscle up a bit into last night, but what we're seeing at the beach looks more like groundswell as Bastardos pointed out rather than SE windswell. Must be that 24second period stuff that the Sydney buoy picked up

Oh and yeah been keeping an eye on that low for a few days now, should deliver swell when it moves into the Tasman next week, but when and for how long.. we'll see

[barstardos]

But where did the 24 sec period swell come from? Are you sure it was real?
Either a dolphin was trying to root the waverider bouy or it must be all the way from Antarctica below Africa to get a 24 sec period. Certainly beyond my usual swell window horizon
And where did you get the scat data - i though the QuiKscat satellite was kaput!

[steve shearer]

ASCAT.

I think EC is on drugs.
Something doesn't quite look right about it.
The GFS based progs just look more realistic for the set-up.

Large and strong blocking high pressure well east of NZ has effectively blocked both swell windows and allowed a regime of weak high pressure and strong vertical wind shear to dominate the Tasman/Coral Sea.
The next week seems to signal at least some change in the pattern.....to what?
well that is the question.

[SAsurfa]

It's erroneous data BS, and as Steve said ASCAT still provides sattelite obs, but its much more scattered, looks less reliable and doesn't seem to observe anything over 45kts

[Donweather]

That fetch was created during late Sunday, early Monday if I remember correctly and with an approximate travel time of 2days for that region, I was expecting it yesterday, although nothing above 1-2ft.

Now today's jump in swell is a bit perplexing as the S'ly winds in the wake of yesterday's change did muscle up a bit into last night, but what we're seeing at the beach looks more like groundswell as Bastardos pointed out rather than SE windswell.

If you take an optimistic view and run some numbers from the hindcasting base of the fetch, at a stretch it could have arrived late yesterday? I don't believe it's the swell that I was alluding too yesterday either as that fetch was created further away and so my numbers are telling me at best you would see this swell (from the fetch to the SE of NZ created over Monday/Tuesday) Friday morning and more so into Friday afternoon.

I do note that LOLA was indicating something small from the SE to hit Sydney late last night and into this morning?

[SAsurfa]

If you take an optimistic view and run some numbers from the hindcasting base of the fetch, at a stretch it could have arrived late yesterday? I don't believe it's the swell that I was alluding too yesterday either as that fetch was created further away and so my numbers are telling me at best you would see this swell (from the fetch to the SE of NZ created over Monday/Tuesday) Friday morning and more so into Friday afternoon.

I do note that LOLA was indicating something small from the SE to hit Sydney late last night and into this morning?

Yeah I know the swell you are elluding to in your other posts, I have that filling in tonight for tomorrow across NE Tassie but it doesn't look to get above a foot or more. WW3 bulletins only have it coming on down there at 0.3m 11 seconds from the SE. This is hardly anything, and the reason the models are still showing the period up towards the NSW coast is due to the lack of any other major swells me thinks

And yeah I can't remember the specifics for the swell off the South Island of NZ during Sunday night/Monday morning, but do remember having it down for an arrival yesterday across Sydney and then easing into today. That could be our swell source for this morning, but 3ft from that fetch, seems a little too much!

[Donweather]

That could be our swell source for this morning, but 3ft from that fetch, seems a little too much!

I agree that 3ft does seem a bit much for this swell today down there. I was thinking there's an outside chance for you guys down there for tomorrow for that size, but not today.

Perhaps the models (through poor ASCAT data) missed a compact little fetch on the SW corner of the low as it was deepening on Sunday night/Monday morning......which would potentially have something arriving at your beach today.

[barstardos]

all this tells me is that i am going to drive to the beach with a surfboard, swimming goggles and running shoes and i wont decide what to do until I am looking at it

[Butts]

all this tells me is that i am going to drive to the beach with a surfboard, swimming goggles and running shoes and i wont decide what to do until I am looking at it

I do it EVERY morning, and this morning was presently surprised BS.

Use the forecasts, but be aware there is the 5% (sorry SA) that they miss something!!

Next week will be SHIT, carp, flat as, same as it always was.............

[Trev]

all this tells me is that i am going to drive to the beach with a surfboard, swimming goggles and running shoes and i wont decide what to do until I am looking at it

Yep. I find myself doing something similar more and more.
But the surf season is on the way.
Right Don.W?

[Donweather]

You betchya Trev. It's getting closer and closer to the season when my fav SC beachie is the ONLY place to be!!!

[Donweather]

BS, I think ya jinxed it mate. EC falling more into line with GFS rather than the other (more favourable) way around

[barstardos]

EC still calling for low to for over the tasman, rather than tasmania. But much less favorable looking than yesterdays run. I hope I havent jinxed it - I am not responsible
Something is changing in the current pattern but I dont think the computer models can guess how it will pan out.
Went for 2km swim this morning because board was obviously superflous

[Donweather]

Yeah you guys down south still look to be OK for next week based on EC, but for us folk up here it's a serious downgrade.

As for today down your way, perhaps there's something on the way for later today BS?

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[SAsurfa]

That may be the small SE groundswell I expected across the NE coast of Tassie this morning at 1ft (reports came in at 1-1.5ft) so if they are only receiving that much energy I don't think that we're gonna get much up here at all

We'll see if Batemans picks it up and see what direction it's coming from..