Forecasting Vic

What surfer doesn't care about the weather? Who hasn't predicted the arrival of a new swell? Do all of it here!

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mical
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Forecasting Vic

Post by mical » Mon Dec 14, 2009 11:59 am

Morning,

I'm finally getting off my backside and learning how to forecast swell in Vic for myself.

I'm going to start hindcasting as a way to learn what's caused/not caused any swell events along my stretch recently, and have been doing a bit of reading here.

I'm wondering if anyone can point me in the right direction of a book or website that explains the charts in simple terms so I know what I'm looking at from the start?

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Grooter
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Re: Forecasting Vic

Post by Grooter » Mon Dec 14, 2009 12:27 pm

This is what I use mate, not sure how it will help you but

Cape Sorell Buoy Gives you an idea of what is coming a fair way off
Point Lonsdale Buoy What's coming through Bass Strait, pretty much what it says is exactly what's going on at Gunnamatta, Rye, Portsea etc...
BOM Weather Stations for Vic what the wind is blowing and where. Uni of Melbourne uses this feed I think
BOM Forecast map really useful, gives an idea of what is coming in the days ahead - usually pretty spot on.

And that's pretty much it. I always check Swellnet, CoastalWatch and Magic Seaweed and take an average of the lot too to plan my weekend.

Great circle paths may help too, I usually use this one as a reference

Image

And then look at ocean charts to see what is happening in that window. But to be honest forecasting around this stuff is beyond my abilities
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mical
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Re: Forecasting Vic

Post by mical » Mon Dec 14, 2009 12:41 pm

Thanks Hatchy.

I currently use Buoyweather, SN, CW, BOM Wind, MSW etc, but that's really only for current conditions to a day or so out forecasts. Even then, someone else's done all the work and I just accept it.

I'd really like to finally be able to understand what produces swell, offshores, read charts and be able to call swell a week or so before it hits.

I'm just sick of being a surfer who doesn't know anything about what's made the waves he rides. I've got a basic understanding from NC's book but I've been surfing for over 20 years and I really know fcuk all.

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Re: Forecasting Vic

Post by Grooter » Mon Dec 14, 2009 12:53 pm

^^^

Ah cool I see where you're coming from.

I'm in the same boat, not happy with being ignorant either, but my guess is that to get much more prescriptive data you'd probably have to pay for it and then know how to interpret it. People study this stuff for years, both in and out of uni, it'd take a long time to really get to know it well.
some cnut wrote:There are only two real problems that we face in life, knowing what we want but being unable to know how to get it and/or not knowing what we want
It's possible to hate the filthy world and still love it with an abstract pitying love

mical
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Re: Forecasting Vic

Post by mical » Mon Dec 14, 2009 1:08 pm

Hatchman wrote:my guess is that to get much more prescriptive data you'd probably have to pay for it and then know how to interpret it.
Happy to pay for access to data, provided I understand what I'm looking at. That's where the learning part comes in first I guess.
Hatchman wrote:People study this stuff for years, both in and out of uni, it'd take a long time to really get to know it well.
I'm not worried about how long it takes mate, because every bit I learn along the way furthers my position from where I am now . . unknowledgable :oops:

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Re: Forecasting Vic

Post by pinhead » Mon Dec 14, 2009 5:41 pm

It's worth studying all this stuff in depth to get a bit of an edge on the pack. Swellnet or Coastalwatch call a good day and everyones on it. However knowing a bit about local effects and what conditions suit fickle or less popular breaks can help you score good uncrowded waves. Some weather patterns are less stable than others so predictions can be less reliable. If you know what conditions are changeble, you know when to set the alarm on the chance that the forecast onshore isn't going to hit, and most crew will have written off the day and are sleeping in.

mical
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Re: Forecasting Vic

Post by mical » Mon Dec 14, 2009 6:09 pm

Thanks Pinhead, that's exactly why I'm keen to learn.

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Re: Forecasting Vic

Post by Donweather » Mon Dec 14, 2009 9:49 pm

I've found the following site very useful for learning and easy to read and understand basics when it comes to swell forecasting and understanding weather and swell phenomena.

http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu.html

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/tutorials/menu.html

http://www.stormsurf.com/gc/mht/globe.html

And even if you don't use Swellnet I personally believe you're a fool if you don't at least read their detailed synopsis each week as you can (and will) learn so so much from them it's not funny. Read what they have to say and have the charts in front of you at the same time and then it all starts to make sense.

Note the above site is all based on the GFS model. You should also look at the EC weather model as sometimes they can be forecasting two very different things, hence you need to be able to see and watch both to understand SN's forecasts.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 2007032500!!/

Enjoy, and once you start to learn, you'll never look back. :D

mical
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Re: Forecasting Vic

Post by mical » Mon Dec 14, 2009 9:56 pm

Don you're a legend mate.

All your links are now bookmarked, and you've already just given me some great advice in that one post, cheers.

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Re: Forecasting Vic

Post by Donweather » Mon Dec 14, 2009 10:05 pm

Happy to help mate. It's an awesome science and one that every surfer should get involved in.

mical
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Re: Forecasting Vic

Post by mical » Mon Dec 14, 2009 10:12 pm

Once I've started to get a small understanding of this side of things, although I'm sure I'll never stop learning, is how sand movement/banks work.

Living where I do at the moment I've got 90 miles of pretty much dead straight coast, surely there's something that would cause certain stretches of it to work better than others at different times?

I'd imagine if there's a good swell from one direction there's going to be a lot of sand pushed further along the coast creating better (less shitty) waves . . . or something. Or is it just no good because it's dead straight?

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Re: Forecasting Vic

Post by bgreen » Sat Dec 26, 2009 1:18 pm

Mical,

Swell direction can make a lot of difference, however, if the banks are no good you just different direction closeouts.

Look for creeks, small irregularities, slight bends in the coast. With swell direction there will refraction, so some spots on the same beach will be bigger or smaller than others.

Nice long period ground swell which everyone hopes for may mean closeouts if there are no banks - need to drive elsewhere. Sometimes the peakier windswells will produce ok waves.

Cross reference the maps leading up to every surf against the surf quality. Then go back and remember these maps, look for them again the future.

Bouys etc are all very useful information, especially if the beaches close out over a certain size.

Bob

mical
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Re: Forecasting Vic

Post by mical » Fri Mar 19, 2010 8:17 pm

Well, I just don't get it.

I've decided I don't learn very well from simply reading information, I'm a visual person (read: stupid).

For the past week the 90 mile stretch has been pretty much exactly like this:

Saturday 3/20
Morning

Light and variable winds with smooth seas. Small long period swell.
Seas: E 0.4 to 0.5 meters at 15 sec.
Winds: E 2 to 2 knots

Afternoon

Breezy whitecapping conditions with moderate choppy seas. Small long period swell.
Seas: E 0.4 to 0.5 meters at 14 seconds
Winds: SSE 10 to 14 knots


The chart as at 5:00pm today looks like this:
IDY00050.png
I assume there's no swell because it's been 30 odd degrees every day for about 4 days with light northerly winds.

That would be because of the high pressure system sitting right on top of us in Vic right now I assume?

I'm wondering if that low at the bottom of the chart where all the bars are close together will create swell for SE Vic?

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Re: Forecasting Vic

Post by Grooter » Fri Mar 19, 2010 9:13 pm

My guess is that it is not far enough east to do anything for your neck of the woods you really need the lows to be a lot more to the right so it fits into the swell window.

Not that I would have any idea though
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Re: Forecasting Vic

Post by mical » Fri Mar 19, 2010 9:22 pm

Yeah, looks like the wrong direction as it would come from the S/SW if it did create any swell anyway?

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Re: Forecasting Vic

Post by Grooter » Fri Mar 19, 2010 9:32 pm

I'd say so which means it'll pass right by you and into the Tasman, you'd probably get the trailing edge at best.

My guess is that you need them firing up between Tassy and NZ so they can come in from a SE direction.
some cnut wrote:There are only two real problems that we face in life, knowing what we want but being unable to know how to get it and/or not knowing what we want
It's possible to hate the filthy world and still love it with an abstract pitying love

mical
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Re: Forecasting Vic

Post by mical » Fri Mar 19, 2010 9:58 pm

Yep, SE - E swells work for that stretch, that much I do know :|

Tomorrow's conditions are pretty good, just no size!

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Re: Forecasting Vic

Post by alakaboo » Mon Mar 22, 2010 10:17 am

mical wrote:Living where I do at the moment I've got 90 miles of pretty much dead straight coast, surely there's something that would cause certain stretches of it to work better than others at different times?
bgreen gives you some good pointers in their post.
another idea is to find some old beach fishermen, and ask them where they find the gutters and rips at different times of the year, tides, weather patterns etc..

i learnt how to read waves while standing on the beach, and first learnt where to stand from my grandfather and his tailor-fishing mates.

cusps and tide heights can be more important than the swell itself.

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