I Smell Something........

[nu boy]

You can certanly see why they call the tasman a sea when all the good weather systems are on the other side of the island chain.We may still score in the gap between vanawatu and nth island N.Z. :?

[Donweather]

All is not lost with TC Mick. Looks to be a compact little fetch on his southern flank late this afternoon, modelled to intensify slightly tonight. If that comes off, then we could see something fun later into the weekend.

In addition, as he goes extratropical, he actually looks (ie modelled) to stall (fairly good agreement between models too at this stage) right on the great circle path (for us SE Qlders.... ) over the tip of NZ around Friday of this week. The main fetch is still certainly aimed to locations further to the north of us, but nevertheless radial spreading certainly should assist with some swell coming our way mid next week. Once again, nothing huge, but still some very inconsistent sets with power (compared to the recent N'ly windswell dribble). Biggest question is, will he stall on our great circle path or drop a few hundred k's further south and be all over red rover?

Let's see how he pans out.

[Donweather]

BTW, anyone heading to Broome late next week, may wish to think ahead..........

TC Lawrence is currently smashing the WA top end. Category 5 and central wind gusts up to 140knts with a central pressure down to 900hPa

[SAsurfa]

Yeah, Ben just pointed that out to me

Amazing!

[Revolution]

Are you claiming this cyclone to be what you smelt two and a half weeks ago don?

[Donweather]

Are you claiming this cyclone to be what you smelt two and a half weeks ago don?

No, I was smelling TC Mick.

TC Lawrence is a little too far away from me to really smell, but he's dishing out some serious stink!!!

[SAsurfa]

Are you claiming this cyclone to be what you smelt two and a half weeks ago don?

[diggerdickson]

surf, theres surf, tommorow morning very early, cant wait, by the way did I mention theres surf

[Donweather]

Yes apparently the SC was where it was at this morning. Although apparently my fav SC beachie was out of control with the crowds mind you.

[Donweather]

Mmmmmmm.....a stationary high pressure system over NZ longitudes with a sniff of a low pressure system cradling it's northern flank. At worst......fun tradewind swell for some time to come. At best.......the ideal setup!!!

Summer is here chaps!!!

[marcus_h]

Hope so Don, i'm praying to baby jesus, allah , buddah and the great spaghetti monster

[Trev]

The Flying Spaghetti Monster.

You're a Pastafarian Marcus?

[marcus_h]

Mate if it brings the swell i would convert to scientology and shoot the breeze with Tom Cruise

[Trev]

Mate if it brings the swell i would convert to scientology and shoot the breeze with Tom Cruise

Mate, that's a BIG call.

[Donweather]

Models look even better with the cradling occuring in the Coral Sea instead of the Tropical South Pacific. Nothing in the road of the fetch and closer to home now too!!!

Biggest issue will now be local synoptic winds...............

[Donweather]

16 seconds

[Donweather]

Actually just did some hindcasting and this actually looks like it could well be the forerunners from the fetch that developed mid last week well out past the international dateline. Perhaps there might be two long range groundswells in the water next time I get wet?

[diggerdickson]

Doesnt look like anything for my holidays coming up, ahh, patience, it will come my way one day, things will turn around, and the winds will turn, they will I tell ya