the forecasters missed this

[Nick Carroll]

A deep long range sse groundswell, formed as a result of a distal low down in the Furious Fifties just now passing well to the sth of the Tasman Sea. Plenty of wind attached to that low. You will probably see this swell hitting Sydney beaches on Sunday arvo and lingering into Monday beneath the onset of all the predicted closer-range stuff.

[black duck]

^^^ Good call. Bom charts appear to support your hypothesis. Most of the wind looks a little more S/W to me though. S/E component is tight and short in fetch. Here's hoping.

[AZ]

On a quick scan of the charts it looks like it will produce a little bit although the movement of the system is pretty quick and the duration of the winds aren't great.

Nick, are you referring to the initial W/SW fetch that passed to the south of the Tasman overnight or the secondary S/SW fetch currently passing to the south of NZ? That second one barely last 12 hours, which won't help things.

It all looks a bit quick to produce anything sizeable but I guess against a background of nothing it will be welcome.

[SAsurfa]

As Alex has pointed out, this swell doesn't look that significant Nick. The systems before, which provided 2ft waves yesterday and this morning at Bondi and the likes, with 3ft waves at Newy looked more favourable than this.

Just breaking it down, the system only starts to fireup when its about halfway caross the entrance to the southern Tasman, and then intensifies under the South Island but by then we only have a short period of gales from the SW (even W/SW) to receive any swell off.

Yes it will probably produce small 2ft sets at the south swell magnets, but I don't find this swell to be anything significant :?

Just stoked that Manly had super fun and hollow 3ft peaks this morning

[Nick Carroll]

OK well you can all just wait and see then can't ya.

[steve shearer]

refracted.

Don't think forecasters missed it Nick.

Reckon most made a judgement call that due to duration limits and poor fetch orientation with respect to the great circle paths to the south (IE the fetch was tracking close to right angles to the circle paths) the resulting swell wouldn't be significant.

But we will see.

It's always worth watching those lows for any sign of stalling , allowing more favourable winds to blow in that swell window.

Sure was a good intensification though.....might be a Chopes swell.

[AZ]

ha. It was a good pick up Nick and I think it will do a little bit. We shall wait and see though.

[Donweather]

Us Qld folk never really look south anyway!!!

Although the Tasman Sea develops from early-mid next week are looking like producing something worthwhile for us up here mid-late next week.....just need Huey to cooperate with the local winds for mid-late next week now so that we can capture the most benefit from what has been a fecking dismal Movember!!!

[AZ]

Nick's 'deep S/SE swell' pushed up to 2ft or so at Tama yesterday afternoon. Not very big but a few little rides coming in off the reef late afternoon.

[Buff_Brad]

Bendalong was pushing 4 foot Sunday after 1-3 ft Sat.

Good call Nick , now fcuk off to the Pipeline Masters , and have a great time.

Cnut.

[Donweather]

Hmmmmmm, me thinks something might just sneak under the radar for you Sydney folk around the middle of this week, however it unfortunately looks to peak on Wednesday evening..........so I'd be keeping an eye on the wave buoys late Wednesday afternoon and perhaps there might be some leftovers come early Thursday morning.....at south facing beaches of course.

Steve, it should sneak under the radar up your way come Thursday morning (but might not be until closer to lunch time), me thinks!!!

[SAsurfa]

You talking about that fetch off the southern tip of NZ??

[Donweather]

You talking about that fetch off the southern tip of NZ??

[SAsurfa]

Haven't missed it :p

I mentioned that in Friday's notes and had it arriving for Thursday morning as you have said.

Now I have two pulses of swell, one from the SE for late tomorrow and all day Wednesday, with Thursday's showing an easing trend.

Kinda bundled it all in to one as it is from the same fetch off the retreating low. It looks good as a snap shot but if you look at the fetch over 18 or so hours it is in a fairly different position every time which makes me think that there won't be anything significant over 2ft to maybe 3ft from it..

[Donweather]

Me thinks it could be larger than 2-3ft at south facing beaches, although the peak might just occur overnight on Wednesday in Sydney, thus we might not see the full swell from this source. At the peak of the swell, me thinks it could well be up to 4ft/4ft+ at south facing beaches.

Also, apologies Craig.....I wasn't inferring from the title of this thread that you missed the swell....merely me thinks it could well come in larger than what you've called it at this stage.

[oldman]

Now I have two pulses of swell, one from the SE for late tomorrow and all day Wednesday, with Thursday's showing an easing trend.

Aren't they from the same system Craig? Isn't that the same system that brought the swell today, just intensifying as it moves south east?

What about after Thursday? Another south swell pulse from a mighty low which seems to be more inclined to stand up straight as it gets past Tasmania. Surely we will get some of that swell, refracted at least,over the Friday to weekend period.

[steve shearer]

Was mentioned in the forecast notes.
Don't like the speed of movement away nor the fetch alignment with respect to the circle paths of the southern swell window.
Latest ASCAT pass would seem to confirm that impression.

[oldman]

Was mentioned in the forecast notes.

Just looked up Craig's recent extended forecast update.

Hope it pans out as he calls it. Works for me.