LUPIT

[Donweather]

Looks as though Tropical Storm Lupit may just deliver the first macking swell of the North Pacific later this week, as she trundles northwards and becomes extratropical!!!

Feck I hope this is a good sign of things to come for this Northern Hemi winter.

My trip is booked for next Feb and it looks as though the location will be receiving some powerful 4-6ft bombs come the first week of November!!! Damn good sign for so early in the season!!!

[steve shearer]

Not the first Don.

Lupit is the second or third gender bender.

There's already been 3 or 4 high surf advisories for north and west facing shores of Hawaii.

Happy B'day to BTW.

[Donweather]

Thanks Steve (for the Bday wishes).

Granted there's been some previous mackin swells already for Hawaii and the NE coast of the USA, but I was being more selfish and specifically referring to my destination that I'm heading to next Feb. ie most of the North Pacific swells have been rather W'ly bias thus far, with very little aimed southwards. Extratropical Lupit certainly looks to have a damn good fetch on it's western flank over the next few days.

[Nick Carroll]

wait till you see what Shieldsy is bringing back from Taiwan...

[steve shearer]

Holy hell...hows ex-Lupit now up near the Kurils?

Don could you post up the Quikscat?

That is a powerful fetch.

[Donweather]

She's predominantly W'ly biased, but still should get some damn fine radial spreading. Found out there's surfers arriving next Monday at the break/s I'm heading to next Feb, so they couldn't have timed it any better for the arrival of some solid powerful 5-6ft sets from this girl come next Tuesday!!!

Ex-Lupit 1_1_3_1.JPG (47.96 KiB) Viewed 6251 times

Ex-Lupit 2_2_3_1.JPG (46.54 KiB) Viewed 6251 times

[steve shearer]

I was thinking about the predominant WNW direction in terms of the Banzai Pipeline.

Now we have Tropical storm Mirinae winding up near Saipan.

Wish I could chase to a certain left hand reef in the Phillos.

[Donweather]

A particular location a little further beyond Hawaii (with respect to this swell direction) certainly looks to light up around mid next week with a NW groundswell consisting of 2-2.5m and swell periods ranging from 16-18 seconds, lightly groomed by some light to moderate E/SE tradewinds........Mmmmmmm, shame it's such a prick to get there now!!!

[Donweather]

Got word this morning that LUPIT delivered a solid 6ft today to my destination of surfari choice for next year. A current slow moving central North Pacific high pressure system looks set to deliver a similar sized (albeit more consistent) NE groundswell for this Saturday. The boys who arrived there yesterday must be thinking all their Christmas' have come at once!!!

[AZ]

http://www.surfline.com/surf-news/pipe- ... nds_31920/

[Donweather]

Yeah saw that yesterday Alex. How's that sequence bomb shot taken from the channel that JOB takes off on!!!

[SAsurfa]

Wow, some great shots and yeah that last sequence of Jamie is Bullsh|t!

[Donweather]

A current slow moving central North Pacific high pressure system looks set to deliver a similar sized (albeit more consistent) NE groundswell for this Saturday.

I see the models are indicating this same swell to arrive on SE Qld shores come early to mid next week.....is this any real remote possibility?? Steve? Nick? I think they did this earlier this year as well and nothing seemed to arrive from memory?

[steve shearer]

yeah we went through this last Dec/Jan.

I certainly didn't see any trace of it here.
There was small surf at the time and no-one from the Sunny Coast reported anything.

With swell decay and shadowing from the island chains it'd be very remote chance you could see anything.

[Donweather]

Yeah I tend to agree with ya Steve, it certainly will be a very very long shot if anything at all makes it down this far. With regards to the Dec/Jan swell, I'm pretty sure this was a larger period groundswell, but certainly more N/NE in direction, hence an even longer shot of it getting down here. This swell this time was created closer to us, but further east compared with the lsat modelled swell event, thus coming more from a NE direction.....so who knows, it might make it's way down here. I'll more than likely be in the water this coming Tuesday (albeit down the GC) so will be interesting to see if there is any freak bomb sets from the NE? Will keep ya posted.

[SAsurfa]

Clutching at straws up there ay Don

[Donweather]

Ha ha, thanks Craig!!!

There should be waves (junky) early - mid next week....just a question on picking the day for the combination of favourable winds and waning wind swell.

Any long range NE groundswell will just be a bonus (although as I said, a rather extremely remote possibility).