September

[puurri]

Wrong. There's still a good chance of several very long range fetches into early NOV.

[Trev]

Wrong. There's still a good chance of several very long range fetches into early NOV.

But puurri, this is the SEPTEMBER topic..

[puurri]

^^ continuing into NOV. Capiche?

[Trev]

^^ continuing into NOV. Capiche?

ummm? Then there's October...........Lots can happen before Nov.

[Jimi]

What is this impressive system going to give us guys?
I saw a prediction of 15 ft for Syd next weekend. Any chance of it eventuating?

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... ie&tim=132

[Nick Carroll]

If that thing happens as currently being predicted on several different combo sites, then it will definitely put a fascinating spin on the last calendar week of September. Crikey. It's like what shoulda happened all winter but didn't.

[Donweather]

It wont do much for us folk up here in SE Qld, with the majority of it tracking parallel to the coast. Lengthy period may help some refraction, but really only at the super south facing swell magnets at best.

North facing beaches may have some remnant N/NE windswell come Wednesday, once that W/SW change comes through and cleans things up, but wave quality will leave alot to be desired (ie period = strength).

[steve shearer]

If that thing happens as currently being predicted on several different combo sites, then it will definitely put a fascinating spin on the last calendar week of September. Crikey. It's like what shoulda happened all winter but didn't.

Cough, cough.
I believe one forecaster has been flagging this possibility for the last 2 weeks.

[oldman]

What is this impressive system going to give us guys?
I saw a prediction of 15 ft for Syd next weekend. Any chance of it eventuating?

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... ie&tim=132

It's not that far out, temporally speaking, so seems a very real possibility.

Hopefully with a nice pre-cursor system to it to nudge it up a bit on Thursday and Friday.

While winter may not have served up the huge surf that some hoped for, this month is proving the best September I can remember. Normally it's about 30 days of westerlies and no surf whatsoever.

I also saw Don calling yesterday's surf as waist to chest high. I only saw Maroubra yesterday but it was quite a bit bigger than that.

Any swell in September surprises. This just looks weird!

I would think the max swell will be more towards Monday and Tuesday though Jimi.

[Donweather]

I know everyone's eyes are focused on the Tasman lows for mid-late this week, but does anyone reckon the east coast will see any of the impressive SW swell period passing beneath Tassy on Friday? I know she's incredibly W/SW in bias, but bugger me the swell periods are insane, and hence I'm wondering if something like that can bend around and hit some of the S swell magnets along the NSW coastline (more so north of Sydney?) late Saturday and into Sunday morning?

Bugger me, anyone heading to Fiji early-mid next week will be laughin!!!

BTW - Alex, good to see you back forecasting for swellnet too mate (apologies if it's been a couple of weeks as I only just checked the Vicco surf forecast).

[puurri]

If that thing happens as currently being predicted on several different combo sites, then it will definitely put a fascinating spin on the last calendar week of September. Crikey. It's like what shoulda happened all winter but didn't.

Cough, cough.
I believe one forecaster has been flagging this possibility for the last 2 weeks.

Pissing meself larfin'. (sundry posters lapsing into sundry self justifying modes)

[oldman]

I know everyone's eyes are focused on the Tasman lows for mid-late this week, but does anyone reckon the east coast will see any of the impressive SW swell period passing beneath Tassy on Friday?

Not sure which iteration of the forecasts this was based on Don. That second low looked like it was going to fire up some huge sw swell from under Tassie, possibly missing us, but it was always dependent on whether it tracked south or east. I think in the earlier runs it was sitting under tassie and firing sw, but it seems to be straightening up, and getting more into the Tasman, as we get closer.

The forecasts seem to have lined up better with each passing run. I'm interested in thermalben's update on swellnet tomorrow. With the latest runs, you would be more hopeful, no?

Edit: BTW, looks more like sunday through next week. Charts have been moving around a lot in the past few days, and Ben refers to the 'complexity' of these conditions making it harder to predict.

[Donweather]

Oldman, my question has nothing to do with the low pressure systems in the Tasman......nor the ones that Thermalben was referring to in his forecast yesterday.

I was asking whether the swell that's been discussed in this article, has any remote chance of bending around Tassy and up into the east coast.....more so the NE coast of NSW?

http://www.swellnet.com.au/dispatch.php ... 210909.php

[oldman]

Cheers donw, apologies for once again misinterpreting you.

So you're talking about the swell that is passing under tassie, not the weather system that created it.

This should have given it away.

any of the impressive SW swell period passing beneath Tassy on Friday

In answer to your question, my opinion is that we will see none of it.

Ben will hopefully come on and provide something scientific. I read some work on his site some time ago about the relative energy levels of the sw swells that often march up the coast, and I think there is some 'formula' he works on where the main variable is the original angle of the swell and how far it has to come around to reach the shore. IIRC, his hypothesis was that the angle was the chief determinant, with energy levels dropping exponentially with the amount of change of angle required.

To hit say north coast NSW would require something like a 90-135 degree turn. Vast majority of energy lost in transit.

[Donweather]

Vast majority of energy lost in transit.

With a swell period in excess of 20 seconds, then it's got some substantial energy to lose!!

I agree it's a long shot and I don't think anywhere south of mid coast of NSW will see it, but I'll be keeping an eye on the south swell magnet wave buoys north of Nth NSW this weekend to see if they detect any hint of some super long period groundswell.

EDT - Just ran some numbers and by my calculations it, (the hawaiin style groundswell) comes within 200-300km (east) of the most easterly location in Australia, albeit at a very diluted swell height!!

[Gone_West]

I've always found windguru reasonably accurate.. they are predicting 6.1m @ 14 seconds from the SSE next Tuesday

[diggerdickson]

all this means jack squat for se queensland oh well, might try my hand at fishing....... Hope Im wrong

[oldman]

With a swell period in excess of 20 seconds, then it's got some substantial energy to lose!!

Huge!

I agree it's a long shot and I don't think anywhere south of mid coast of NSW will see it, but I'll be keeping an eye on the south swell magnet wave buoys north of Nth NSW this weekend to see if they detect any hint of some super long period groundswell.

EDT - Just ran some numbers and by my calculations it, (the hawaiin style groundswell) comes within 200-300km (east) of the most easterly location in Australia, albeit at a very diluted swell height!!

What do you do for a day job by the way Donw.

Now if we could just get rid of Tasmania, no point in moving it, may as well just sink it, then I reckon there would be a fair chance of it wrapping around under Vic and making its way up the coast, possibly hitting north coast.

First NZ, then tassie. Got some work cut out for us DW.