Huey is a PRICK!!!

[Grooter]

Was talking to a mate last night and we both can't remember when we've had such a lack of swell down here.

Normally we'll be surfing Flinders and Point Leo during winter because the swell is consistently too big on the open beaches. Yet I've surfed Flinders maybe once or twice since May, the rest of the time it has been at Gunnamatta.

Not that I'm really complaining, Gunna has heaps of options and a 4 foot swell there is more than enough to keep me happy given the right bank.

[Jimi]

After praising huey a few weeks ago I have now gone back to thinking he is a prick after all.
Getting sick and missing the last swell a week ago is being blamed on that prick huey too.

[Donweather]

Hey Steve, just read your SE Qld forecast and it paints a sad and depressing story indeed. Just curious though about the following comment you made "increased chance of strong northerlies for the spring season"? Any chance you could provide some additional info as to why you think this might be the case?

[steve shearer]

Alot of the northerlies final strength relates to the inshore sea temp.
Lower inshore sea temp, higher differential with land temp and thus stronger seabreezes as wind flows from high to low pressure.
This is enhanced and abetted by ekman transport whereby cooler water is dragged in from upwelling along the continental shelf....it becomes a vicious feedback loop.
Strong trades and thus a strong early EAC mitigate against this trend.
In Nino's we typically have weak trades and thus the Ekman/strong NE feedback loop becomes well established and entrenched and hard to break down(have seen it last well into Jan).

[AZ]

That's an interesting one there Steve. I like it.

Now Hatchman, this winter has been a shocker but good news is on the horizon. Get set for some decent swell this weekend onwards (especially Monday/Tuesday). Now we just need winds and banks to co-operate. I don't think I've been in the water for a month it's been that bad.

[Donweather]

In Nino's we typically have weak trades and thus the Ekman/strong NE feedback loop becomes well established and entrenched and hard to break down(have seen it last well into Jan).

Ah feck it, don't say that Steve. Nothing worse than surfing in January with wetties in SE Qld!!!

[Donweather]

In Nino's we typically have weak trades

Let's see what the latest thoughts are from the BOM on Wednesday about this developing El Nino. Latest talk on the street is that oceanic conditions are pointing to a strong El Nino however atmospheric conditions paint a different picture (more neutral conditions).

God I hope the atmospheric conditions prevail and we don't slump into an El Nino!!!

[Donweather]

Finally Huey may just be hearing our cries and he's put something on the horizon for us!!!

[steve shearer]

In Nino's we typically have weak trades

Let's see what the latest thoughts are from the BOM on Wednesday about this developing El Nino. Latest talk on the street is that oceanic conditions are pointing to a strong El Nino however atmospheric conditions paint a different picture (more neutral conditions).

God I hope the atmospheric conditions prevail and we don't slump into an El Nino!!!

Well, there's alot to be said here and in this case of teasing out predictive indices for long range surf forecasting from the ENSO cycle we are still in nappies.
But as far as the very near past goes last Spring/Summer oceanic conditions were pointing towards a strong Nina , yet the atmosphere lagged to such a degree that the BOM only reluctantly referred to it as a "NIna-type year".
In early December Coral Seas SST's were off the hook and I repeatedly said the Coral Sea was a powderkeg waiting to go off : in actuality we had Nino-like northerlies and episodic south swells right through December!
We had to wait until Mid Jan before the season really kicked and it was Mid-Feb before the atmosphere really started catching up with where SST's were in Nov/Dec. The MJO signal was unreliable in it's periodicity and often swamped by larger atmospheric forces. the late summer swell burst will be remembered for it's size, duration and consistent quality.
In my mind it still doesn't count as a classic "cyclone" season though as the sub-tropical jet was ill-placed and tore most cyclones to pieces before they got going. Hamish was a notable exception.
Now if we are in fact in a regime of cool PDO and perhaps enhanced storminess in the western Pacific basin then the Nino might be mitigated and swing back to Nina more readily.
Much more study needs to be done in this area.....we are still in the dark ages.

As far as the Northern Rivers go the winter of '07 is instructive....transitioning from a persistent Nino to Nina the focus of winter ECL development was south of Coffs and we had perfect weather and surf.
The last two nina seasons have meant consistent flood events and onshores.
A weak Nino with a rapid transition back to Nina is highly desirable from this POV.

[Donweather]

Thanks Steve. If ya don't mind me asking, and just out of curiosity, what do you do for a crust, besides surf forecasting/reporting for SN....or is this your full time job now?

[steve shearer]

Thanks Steve. If ya don't mind me asking, and just out of curiosity, what do you do for a crust, besides surf forecasting/reporting for SN....or is this your full time job now?

Funny , my wife keeps asking me the same question.

[marcus]

speaking of early seasonal transitions, is it just me or does this offshore wind have a hint of "august winds" about it?
for a few years now the august winds have been coming as much as a month late, could they be doing the opposite and coming early?
although it has only been one day so far, a bit to early to comment.

[jimmy]

^^^^ Correct me if I'm wrong but I've always thought of the August winds as being from the W/SW and f#cken freezing..
I thought there was a bit of North in the wind today, hence the warmer temps..

[SAsurfa]

^^Also I wanna know where this constant run of 3-4ft offshore clean sunny days that Butts promised me in early Autumn! Sure we've had some great swells, but inbetween each swell there's been squat!

[marcus]

i think your right jim