ECL?

[Donweather]

Given the heated debate occuring in the other thread I thought I'd start a new one with this question.

Anyone (someone with at least half an intelligent related reply) care to comment on the possibility of the model predictions for an ECL late next week.

GFS has been progging something in the Coral Sea/Nth Tasman for the last few days, but I'm struggling to see how such an intense system can develop that far north this time of year?

EC has now started to come into line with some form of a small low pressure system forming up north and then rapdily tracking southwards to stall hard up against a large Tasman high off the NSW coast (more in line with a typical ECL of the past, hence me thinks a more plausible scenario).

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 2009051300!!/

[Revolution]

ITS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!!! ARRGGGG FUCK!!! DONT YOU GET IT!!! WE ARE A CURSE!!! I CANT HEAR YOU!!! LAAALAAALAAALAALAAALAALAALALALALALALALAA!!!

[LONGINUS]

No more 30 year storms please, its only been 1 weeks since the last one

[--++sunstroke++--]

ITS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!!! ARRGGGG ****!!! DONT YOU GET IT!!! WE ARE A CURSE!!! I CANT HEAR YOU!!! LAAALAAALAAALAALAAALAALAALALALALALALALAA!!!

Flat, pancake, pool size waves, bigger waves off the Sydney ferries, westerly swell, 0 sec period...

[steve shearer]

I've been watching that persistent inland trough through QLD....like the position of the STJ too.
GFS has been progging something for an eternity now.
It's looking more promising.
Be plenty of onshore winds for us though.

[Donweather]

like the position of the STJ too.

STJ?

Be plenty of onshore winds for us though.

That's why I'm liking the look of EC more so over GFS. EC has the low just that little further south, which would put locations like the SC in a not too bad position with light winds and a persistent feed in of swell off the top flank of the high/back side of the low.

[Nick Carroll]

If the Fantasy Maps come true it'll be great!

All the progs have been hammering away at one of these for about a week, it's not completely unusual, they'll sometimes happen this way all the way out to late June

I thought the "arguments" on the other thread were pretty funny, people whining about the forecast 'cause it didn't bring out the biggest swell for 35 years, when the whole NSW central and southern coasts were fcuken perfect for several days straight and 90% of 'em didn't know what to do with it. Rarely have I seen so many good waves and so much bad surfing.

More value in hindcasting it every time I think, you can find out heaps about how fetches affect different bits of coast etc.

[daryl]

Flat, pancake, pool size waves, bigger waves off the Sydney ferries, westerly swell, 0 sec period...[/quote]

It's going to be absolute perfection, right up until I get my car back thanks huie keep it up.

Then

ITS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!!! ARRGGGG ****!!! DONT YOU GET IT!!! WE ARE A CURSE!!! I CANT HEAR YOU!!! LAAALAAALAAALAALAAALAALAALALALALALALALAA!!!

FRIG OFF HUGH WITH YOUR PITIFUL SLOP

[2nd Reef]

I thought the "arguments" on the other thread were pretty funny, people whining about the forecast 'cause it didn't bring out the biggest swell for 35 years, when the whole NSW central and southern coasts were fcuken perfect for several days straight and 90% of 'em didn't know what to do with it.

Spot on Nick.

For f*ck sake the last few days have been straight-up pumping - good as Sydney ever gets. What's to complain about??

That it didn't come in as big as expected? So what! We still got incredible waves from it, and it certainly won't stop me from getting excited over prog charts in the future. The pre-swell froth and anticipation is as much a part of the surfing experience as the wave-riding.

Now to this possible ECL...

[barstardos]

Yep - pretty much the best week of surf I have had in Sydney in recent memory,
me no complain!
Swell was slightly smaller than earlier expectations but still epic. Winds were way better the expectations. Full moon and clear skies made it the best pre dawn surfs ever
I think I will nominate SE as my favorite swell direction now. All my favorite spots crank in a good SE swell

[--++sunstroke++--]

That it didn't come in as big as expected?

That sounds like underpants eating time right there 2nd's

Gonna stick to your promise

[2nd Reef]

^^^^I don't think that'll be happening Stroker.

But let's not call it a broken promise. Taking a leaf out of Wayne Swan's book I'll call it a 'change of policy'.

[--++sunstroke++--]

But let's not call it a broken promise. Taking a leaf out of Wayne Swan's book I'll call it a 'change of policy'.

[oldman]

ITS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!!! ARRGGGG ****!!! DONT YOU GET IT!!! WE ARE A CURSE!!! I CANT HEAR YOU!!! LAAALAAALAAALAALAAALAALAALALALALALALALAA!!!

Speak up there sonny, I can barely hear ya!

Yep, there's a huge swell a 'coming!

(swings back and forth on his rocking chair on the porch, sucks portentously on a half-lit pipe of tobacco. Dreamy eyed)

Could be as big as the storms of '74, even the big one of '62.

Can feel it in my bones I can. Getting rheumy, that's a sign,

Big swell, yep she's a coming.

(sucks on pipe, rocks on chair,) end.

[steve shearer]

More value in hindcasting it every time I think, you can find out heaps about how fetches affect different bits of coast etc.

Fcukin amen.

This was a wierd series of pulses around here : the energy attenuated severely with any sort of refraction so pointbreaks were mostly very undersized and underpowered; but south swell magnets were amplifying the signal and not handling.
There was magic to be found, working with smaller tidal phases post full moon and small pre-frontal shifts in the wind to the WNW.
Fickle ledges that need very precise parameters, but are open to the full energy of the swell.
But most people wrote it off around here.

Now next week is looking awful-like a major flood event for the mid-north coast to the Northern Rivers and northwards with a NE infeed into a deepening trough.......a shift southwards to flood out fcking Gomorrah would be acceptable Huey.

[steve shearer]

Speak up there sonny, I can barely hear ya!

Yep, there's a huge swell a 'coming!

(swings back and forth on his rocking chair on the porch, sucks portentously on a half-lit pipe of tobacco. Dreamy eyed)

Could be as big as the storms of '74, even the big one of '62.

Can feel it in my bones I can. Getting rheumy, that's a sign,

Big swell, yep she's a coming.

(sucks on pipe, rocks on chair,) end.

Meanwhile on the pier, old "shopping cart" is getting some chopped mussels for bait.
It'll be a swell so big and strong it'll wipe clean evrything that came before it."
That's the day this board will be ridden"
"happened back in '50"
"he rode, I saw".

[LONGINUS]

If the Fantasy Maps come true it'll be great!

All the progs have been hammering away at one of these for about a week, it's not completely unusual, they'll sometimes happen this way all the way out to late June

I thought the "arguments" on the other thread were pretty funny, people whining about the forecast 'cause it didn't bring out the biggest swell for 35 years, when the whole NSW central and southern coasts were fcuken perfect for several days straight and 90% of 'em didn't know what to do with it. Rarely have I seen so many good waves and so much bad surfing.

More value in hindcasting it every time I think, you can find out heaps about how fetches affect different bits of coast etc.

Cmon Nick, no one would have complained if forecasters hadnt called it in the first place. It's a big call to go straight to "biggest swell in 30 years" and put it in the Sydney Morning Herald. I was looking at that same chart and thinking - how the fkuc are people seeing this as a 30 year event? But my training has been in open ocean forecasting. Near direct Southerly swells are always severely attenuated by the bottom topography of sea mounts and sub sea mounts off NSW that go all the way to the 100 m contour. The Coastalwatch SWAN model takes good consideration of most of those factors and that model never went above 6 feet for Sydney Northern Beaches and I think that was about right. The article in the SMH was calling it at 9M? WTF? I see we have gone straight to 30 year event for the swell of Vicco as well. Hmmm.

The people have a right to be disappointed when the media lets them down

[Donweather]

Now next week is looking awful-like a major flood event for the mid-north coast to the Northern Rivers and northwards with a NE infeed into a deepening trough

That's OK by me. My lawn needs a good drink....and who knows, we may even get some into our dams too.

I just hope this girl doesn't trash my favourite SC beachie banks, cause they are primo at the moment.