2008 -2009 surf/weather forecast

[tiger]

Guard... you just killed it .

[heefcoate]

there is some confusion to which way it will go now. the bom been saying SE track all week but now they are uncertain.

[puurri]

Looks like a re-run of 66 to me. Maybe lasting into late April.

[steve shearer]

1966?
'67 was a huge year with Dinah, Barbara, Elaine and Glenda and then huge seas in June from a hybrid low.

[puurri]

1966?
'67 was a huge year with Dinah, Barbara, Elaine and Glenda and then huge seas in June from a hybrid low.

KRAFT.

[steve shearer]

still lost me.
kraft? werk, cheddar......give me another clue.

[steve shearer]

chance of a double act....anyone remember the last time there were 2 active cyclones in the CS....
Anne and Agi (Jan 88), is the last I remember.
That produced 10 foot surf at Big Groyne Kirra.

[heefcoate]

i do agree there is a chance of 2 cyclones, the low now is starting to take shape and is up on bom cyclone map and has a technical forecast now, so it will be a TC jasper tomorrow.

[puurri]

still lost me.
kraft? werk, cheddar......give me another clue.

My old fart syndrome "Kan't remember a frocking thing"

[2nd Reef]

chance of a double act....anyone remember the last time there were 2 active cyclones in the CS....
Anne and Agi (Jan 88), is the last I remember.

Two 'A's Steve?

What's the naming protocol there?

[steve shearer]

One named by Aus, the other by Nadi.......no prob there.

[Donweather]

and to be pedantic its actually CS cyclone number 4.....Ellie, Innis , Hamish were the first 3.

Sorry Steve I was referring to my earlier post of at least another two cyclones in the Coral Sea before the end of this season.

Looks like Jasper may well have to wait a little while just yet, with my money more so on GFS at the moment, given that it's been pretty damn spot on with it's forecasts of recent times when it comes to tropical lows/cyclones.

[Donweather]

Whilst I don't believe it will come to fruition, has anyone seen the all mighty mother of cyclone in the Coral Sea that the EC model is showing for 7-10 days out........

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 2009032200!!/

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 2009032200!!/

[steve shearer]

jeezes, the Coral Sea is fcuking on fire at the moment. Endless swell.
Anyone with flexibility and half a brain should down tools immediately.
This is one we'll be talking about in 20 years time.

[Donweather]

I have to say Steve the length of the fetch is insane. I can't remember the last time we saw a fetch length (and strength) like this, nor the sustained duration of the lengthy fetch as well.

Check out the length of the fetch come later this weekend and well into next week....the fetch extends over 3000km!!!! The large Tasman high remains entrenched well into next week, sustaining a gorgeous fetch of tradewinds on it's northern flank the whole time.....not to mention the easterly dip/small low pressure system that forms on her northern flank early-mid next week as well.

My theory (well I'm hoping anyway) that everyone will surf themselves silly over the next 5-7 days thus leaving some lesser crowded leftovers for me come late next week!!!

[Nick Carroll]

This season should convince everyone remaining of the:

a) general lameness of cyclones
b) importance of high pressure.

It's the bomb high pressure lingering over NZ that provides the anvil for the hammer to strike -- the hammer being an active monsoon trough pushing down from the NW and into the Coral Sea, creating that powerful ESE tradewind gale...and sometimes swinging it ENE.

Right now that high looks like it's made of some impenetrable substance, marvellously resistant to the early Southern Ocean activity, which is already hitting Indo but can't make a dent in the temperate zone once it's past the Bight.

If perchance that awesome setup is accompanied by a cutoff low near the eastern Australian coast ... well, you got to imagine the newspapers will be busy running alarmist articles about Global Warming, Sea Level Rise, etc. What's the bet such articles will be at a premium by the end of this week?

[Donweather]

It's certainly a special sight to see Nick. Check out the length of the fetch on this puppy as well. It stretches from the east coast of Australia to well beyond the international date line....that's a distance of some 5000km, which is longer than the width of Australia.

I can't recall seeing a fetch of this length nor it's duration. I can't see this swell train decaying for a long time yet. This could certainly go down as one of the longest spells of sizeable surf on the east coast for some time.

[puurri]

Geez this bandwagon is mind numbingly original.