Saturday could be carnage!

[Butts]

Looks like a great piece of Groundswell arriving ONLY for Saturday am

16 seconds of South swell @ 2m = carnage for the average punter.
It could be very nice INDEED

I will be in the Hunter Valley sipping on some "local" vintage unfortunately,
but would like some sort of report on how it was

[Jimi]

but its probably gonna be rainy and dead onshore...

[Butts]

but its probably gonna be rainy and dead onshore...

[Mr_momo_32]

but its probably gonna be rainy and dead onshore...

hopefully until 1 o'clock when i get off work. then it can pump

[AlbyAl]

but its probably gonna be rainy and dead onshore...

Yep - onshore according to Coastalbotch - ESE winds atop a 15 sec due south swell proabably equals messy closeouts at a lot of places ... but a few select sheltered reefs ... yeah ... tricky though - very south swell.

[Nick Carroll]

well these troughs have been nowhere near as harsh as they've been forecast lately. So maybe the wind will be mellow in the morning...when the tide is pushing high.

I hope everyone is OK in this swell, it's the kind that kills rock fishermen and hurts some surfers.

[Butts]

I hope everyone is OK in this swell, it's the kind that kills rock fishermen and hurts some surfers.

Yeah hence the use of carnage, but not in a bad way
Its going to be solid, certain spots will be very very good

[Mr T]

Guys

Had a very enjoyable surf at Manly at 6:30 this morning.

Even jumped a little Ship Sternesk hump on a bomb at North Steyne.

Where do you reckon is going to work Saturday morning??

[SAsurfa]

I hope everyone is OK in this swell, it's the kind that kills rock fishermen and hurts some surfers.

Is that sarcasm or do people really get in trouble with swell events of this kind. It doesn't look that BIG, is it because heaps of kooks try and take it on and get samshed or what's the go?

I'm reading a south swell at 10-12ft max height at 15-16seconds. How big does this relate to in swell seen at south facing beaches? Is it around the 5-6ft mark?

[Jimi]

a 10 foot swell at 16 seconds is the kind of swell that could light up some spots. a certain bombie or two (not sydney) could be 15 foot+...... easy.
i reckon it wont look too big at most beachies, but every 15 mins or so the bombs will clean up anyone who's not up to it. I sure as fu@k wont be.












maybe collaroy

[thermalben]

Is that sarcasm or do people really get in trouble with swell events of this kind.

Certainly is an issue, in NSW at least. A long period south swell a couple of Sunday's back (in Sydney) was just a little over a metre in height, but it still resulted in a rock fisherman being washed off a platform. The BOM have been tabulating this stuff for some time now, and the correlation between drowning fatalities and long period swell events is reasonably high. Additionally, Sydney exacerbates the situation a little more, being the only capital city with ocean frontage (so, there's a lot more people milling around the water's edge, increasing the probability that someone'll get washed off).

[Beanpole]

The trouble is too many people get hyped up and don't know their limits.
Some learners just walk down and paddle out no matter what. Then theres the old campainers who used to be up to it but need a reality check i.e. you haven't been hitting the early and surfing three times a day seven days a week. You have been watching your kids soccer and downing a few schooners after work Hmm that sounds familiar.

[robzig]

[SAsurfa]

The BOM have been tabulating this stuff for some time now, and the correlation between drowning fatalities and long period swell events is reasonably high.

Interesting, well I hope no ones gets washed away this time but do they put warning's out for this kind of swell event on the news to warn people

Good luck to you guys, hope you score some nice waves

[bonka]

Butts - Thanks for the tipoff, the helisurf expedition is booked (I do feel bad ripping into you; your photos are always great).

Nick - Its going to be OK... I have notified the cantonese funeral parlor, the boys are on "standby" and prepared to put in some overtime.

SA - I phoned today tonight and they are going to do an exclusive [that no parent should miss] on the dangers of this kind of "swell".

Robzig - I have never seen the ocean before and dont know if I should take out my 4"2 or a 9"5 - seriously can anyone help me out with this?

P.S. "This autumn sucks"

[bonka]

Update: I have just been on the phone to the coastguard... The gentleman on the other end of the line thanked me kindly and has agreed to sound the tsumani alarm on friday afternoon and for the duration of saturday.

He requested that everytime someone notices a cybersystem predicting a 23sec swell between 4-6 days away (for a duration of less than 2 hours) to please phone them up... if you cant access a telephone just grab a bell, make a sign and head to your local point (the island at newport will suffice Nick). With early detection we CAN avoid the carnage...

[Butts]

Some learners just walk down and paddle out no matter what.

Beanpole this is the carnage I was eluding to. Its a Saturday which makes
it that much more dangerous for EVERYONE

bonka

[Innerview]

Outlook for tomorrow is SE 15-20 kts and a slight bump up in swell height. However, the models are saying we'll have a shorter period, so the sum total effect could be roughly the same as what we have now.

Hunter Coastal Waters, Seal Rocks to Broken Bay and 60nm seawards:
Saturday: Wind: SE 18/23 knots. Sea: about 2 metres. Swell: S/SE 2 to 2.5 metres, increasing to 3 to 3.5 metres. Dangerous surf conditions. Isolated thunderstorms.

And the Eden wave bouy is rising like a rocket

Don`s forecasts... I don`t know where you research your stuff but really your models are somewhat broken, old man !