Climate Forcing From Cosmic Rays Much Higher Than IPCC Estimate
In a paper that has been accepted for publication in the Indian science journal Current Science
, physicist Dr U R Rao argues that decreasing cosmic ray activity accounts for almost 40 % of global warming. This is much higher than the cosmic ray contribution in the IPCC model.
Below is an extract from the January 21 article on Rao's paper in The Hindu
"According to the latest report by the IPCC, all human activity, including carbon dioxide emissions, contribute 1.6 watts/sq.m to global warming, while other factors such as solar irradiance contribute just 0.12 watts/sq.m.
However, Dr Rao's paper calculates that the effect of cosmic rays contributes 1.1 watts/sq.m, taking the total contribution of non-human activity factors to 1.22 watts/sq.m.
This means that increased carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere are not as significant as the IPCC claims. Of the total observed global warming of 0.75 degrees Celsius, only 0.42 degrees would be caused by increased carbon dioxide. The rest would be caused by the long term decrease in primary cosmic ray intensity and its effect on low level cloud cover.
This means that predicting future global warming and sea level rise is not as simple as the IPCC makes it to be, since it depends not only on human activity, but also significantly on the unpredictability of cosmic ray intensity.
“We conclude that the contribution to climate change due to the change in galactic cosmic ray intensity is quite significant and needs to be factored into the prediction of global warming and its effect on sea level raise and weather prediction,” says the paper."
The full article is here: http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp ... 107174.ece
If you want to see some snazzy graphs related to Rao's report, look here: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/01/21 ... e_forcing/