RealSurf Surfers' Forum

I agree with Don on that swell for the morning of the 28th. Should be a really infrequent 6-8ft with maybe the odd bigger sneaker at dawn, but yeah a really inco 6-8ft.

Hi crust Was lumpy, side/on shore and the whole coast was crowded out, swell forecasts are generally glass half full for the surf coast, to get people down to spend there money in torquay, and that has been the case years before the internet was invented. :wink: With a forecast of a peak in swell ar...

Instead of later Feb, I'd expect the MJO to reach our region early into March. Hopefully we see some more activity relative to the last few weeks as the Coral Sea SST's are primed and ready!

For the central NSW region it looks to be have been a "captured fetch" scenario, as winds speeds within the whole evolution of the low weren't especially strong (less than gale-force mainly). It was more so the slow west-southwest track of the low towards the Australian East Coast at the same speed ...

Haha, I reckon he would of got pretty hammered and thrown around Dug. Pretty shallow where he is, and one of the shallowest beachies going around.

Right with ya there Nick! https://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/s720x720/313387_10150321727261328_623736327_8185306_1444601634_n.jpg https://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/s720x720/316024_10150321730506328_623736327_8185337_823048671_n.jpg Click here for more.. http://ww...

All indicators are pointing to another La Nina this seasion, but it's nowhere near as strong as last year, and hence won't have as much of an impact as it did last summer on rainfall in Qld and other parts of the country. SOI is holding a weak positive, but also the NINO3.4 index is heading south wh...

Good to hear Coops!

Yeah I've heard great things from the eastern side of Melbourne, but I reckon if you asked the guys on the Surf Coast how they would rate their winter, the answer would be pretty poor.

offshore1 wrote: he took a hiatus from shithouse conditions to surf some of the best waves the world has ever seen.

Well he missed the best of it apparently. Stayed on the island for the morning session when it was biggest and cleanest, and went out in the arvo when the wind was hacking it. Was a big miss.

Gotta agree mainly with the Iggy scale and that's what I use to forecast. Anyone who mentions 5-7ft, 7ft, 7-9ft, 9ft, 11ft etc automatically sets off alarm bells in my head. Oh and there is a 5ft. 3-5ft, 4-5ft and 5-6ft are all used frequently and it's between 1.5x-2x overhead. Can see how complicat...

It should be noted that this swell will be only for the most experienced surfers, and if you are not confident in your ability, please don't head out as you'll put yourself and your rescuers in unnecessary danger. C'mon Craig it's not gonna be that bad is it :D In all seriousness you make my day wh...

They do Don, and it's a bottom friction calculation from memory. Also there are obstruction grids ingested into the model which account for sea mounts, or land masses that are smaller than the models resolution.

Unfortunately the outlook is even less inspiring off the low above New Zealand now in 00z with the winds on the south-eastern flank being weaker and I wouldn't expect much above 2ft now :( Also the S'ly swell on Wednesday has been downgraded slightly, but the secondary pulses on Thursday and Friday ...

Have you looked at the winds around the forecast low Don, I never look at the open ocean swell created at the source of a system. If you look at the source winds you'll understand why Sydney won't pick up much of this swell at all. And after forecasting Sydney for 2 years or so I've got a pretty goo...

I'm using GFS Old's. The low is currently predicted to form mainly to the north-east of the North Island with only a brief burst (12hrs or so) of 30-40kt+ winds within our swell window. This would give Wednesday's swell that may be seen late Tuesday, but before this I think you'd be lucky to get muc...

Ajohnsen, Looks like the week will start off slow but from Wednesday onwards you'll see plenty of surf. I think Don's overcooked the swell from the east. At this stage I wouldn't be expecting much over a very inconsistent 2ft to maybe 3ft on Wednesday (def not near 4-5ft sorry Don). In any case ther...

I'm astounded surf forecasts 6 days out are ever right, frankly. I take my hat off to anyone who can take remotely observed three-dimensional weather events, sometimes thousands of kilometres away, and translate that into what happens on the shoreline, without access to good bathymetrical info or a...